David Hess

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David Hess

David Hess

@AudacityOfHoops

Dev & analyst @TeamRankings @PoolGenius @BetIQ_ / expert ball-knower per @kenpomeroy / NCAAB / NFL / garbage-loving chaos goblin / music / beer / joke ruiner

San Diego Katılım Mart 2010
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
Give him Reggie's RT @darrenrovell If this goes to 2OT, Gus might need a quick larynx replacement.
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JBR
JBR@JBRBracketology·
I keep seeing this take/ take adjacent and I still don't understand it. Y'all massively underestimate how bad the worst teams in college basketball are lol. 2026 NCAAM - Teams NET #300-365: 0-175 vs Quad 1 4-315 vs Quad 1+2 combined 486-760 (39.0%) vs Quad 4 Florida is favored by 35.5 tomorrow over KenPom #280 Prairie View A&M. There are still 85 teams ranked worse than Prairie View on KenPom!!
West Pine Bills@WestPineBills

I can promise you that every single team in the country would win the national title if they had Wemby

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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@AuburnBlazer @catchapstick @JBRBracketology How many points better than Cooper Flagg is Wemby? Because Cooper Flagg was on Duke last year, and they didn't win the whole thing. Point being the difference between "Duke without Flagg" and the worst D-1 team is larger than the diff between Wemby and Flagg.
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@davec260 @JBRBracketology We're not talking about adding him to a mid major, though. There are mid majors that didn't make the tournament that would be favored by 30 over the worst Division I team.
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Lobo
Lobo@davec260·
@JBRBracketology It’s a great example of if a superstar is put on a mid major team. It supports the Wemby hypothesis.
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Quadcarl
Quadcarl@Quadcarl·
Afroman is the hero we all need right now.
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Count Dankula
Count Dankula@CountDankulaTV·
The Afroman Trial. -Cops raid Afromans house for bullshit reasons. -Steal money, break his door, fuck his house up. -No criminality found whatsoever, no charges at all pressed on Afroman. -Afroman spends the next 3 years making songs that make fun of all the officers involved by name, even using footage of the raid from his own CCTV cameras. -Songs had titles like "Randy Walters is a son of a bitch" and "Lick Em Low Lisa" accusing one of the officers of being a lesbian and sleeping with the other officers wives. -During the raid one officer looked like he was about to eat some lemon pound cake sitting on Afromans counter, Afroman made a whole album calling the officer fat. -The cops get mad and file a lawsuit for defamation. -Afroman turns up to court in a whole American flag suit. -Officers performatively mald and cry while listening to the songs really trying to oversell how badly the songs upset them. -One officer was suing because Afroman made a whole song about him saying he was fucking the officers wife. When the officer was asked if Afroman was really fucking his wife, he said "I don't know". Nuking his own case and establishing that there is a non-zero chance that Afroman might actually be fucking his wife. -As his only witness for the trial, Afroman brought a deputies EX FUCKING WIFE. -The jury ruled completely in favour of Afroman. This entire thing has been a great win for free speech and absolutely fucking hilarious.
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@EricHow50033331 @mr_peanutbettor @robpizzola @MrLiimited MOV doesn't "obviously" have to matter. WAB and SOR do a good job of comparing resumes compiled against very different schedules without using MOV. If those metrics are even for some teams, sure tiebreak with predictive metrics. Like the NFL uses margin as the ~9th tiebreaker.
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Eric Howard
Eric Howard@EricHow50033331·
@mr_peanutbettor @robpizzola @MrLiimited They won 9 games by 3 or less or in OT...if they lose 4 or 5 of those, this really isn't a conversation. In a system where teams dont play the same teams...obviously who you play and your winning margin has to matter. Not that I'm against them getting in.
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Rob Pizzola
Rob Pizzola@robpizzola·
My timeline is full of debates about whether Miami (OH) should get an at-large bid after going 31-1 and losing their first game in the MAC tournament. I am admittedly not a college hoops expert. I barely even bet college hoops anymore and I don't keep up with it over the year but my educated guess: they’re getting in. Not because they deserve it analytically, but because the optics of leaving out a 31-1 team would cause absolute chaos with casual fans. The funny part is when you actually look at the profile, which I just did for the first time today because I couldn't stand seeing this debate anymore... T-Rank has them 87th. KenPom has them 93rd. That’s extremely low for an at-large team. And when you dig into the schedule… it’s pretty rough. Like very rough. Laughable. Their best win is a 76-73 home game vs Akron. Outside of that, they played multiple overtime games against Ohio, Kent State, Buffalo and UNC Asheville. There’s just not much there. There's legitimately nothing to gauge them on. This is one of those teams that probably ends up as an 11 or 12 seed, gets matched with a solid 5 or 6 (think Louisville, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, etc.), and likely gets smoked. And honestly that outcome might actually help the committee in the long run. It gives them precedent the next time a team racks up a gaudy record against a weak schedule. For the record, I’m not even arguing what the committee *should* do here. Just what I think is overwhelmingly likely to happen. A 31-1 team probably won’t get left out even when the underlying numbers say they probably should.
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@tangming2005 Why doesn't this result in - It changes three files - The test passes
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Ming "Tommy" Tang
Ming "Tommy" Tang@tangming2005·
3/ The test-first approach forces a different workflow: Step 1: Write a test that fails exactly the way the bug fails Step 2: Now you have a precise definition of the problem Step 3: Subagents work on fixes in parallel Step 4: The fix isn't done until the test passes
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Ming "Tommy" Tang
Ming "Tommy" Tang@tangming2005·
Single biggest improvement I made to my CLAUDE.md: "When I report a bug, don't start by trying to fix it. Instead, start by writing a test that reproduces the bug. Then, have subagents try to fix the bug and prove it with a passing test."
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largest rodent
largest rodent@capybaroness·
lawyers: both a tv and a movie job, commonly seen across both cops: a little tv-coded but still lots of cop movies doctors: basically entirely a tv phenomenon. there are like maybe one or two doctor movies ever
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@ProjSports Thank you for putting the names, since the conference won't
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Projection Sports by Tyler Markley
Summit League Bracket Omaha won this tournament last season but enters play as the #5 seed. NDSU and St. Thomas are the clear favorites here. First round tips off Wednesday in Sioux Falls
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
The coolest sounding college acronym is ETSU. I will not be taking any questions.
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@karpathy Where did you write those instructions? What tool?
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Andrej Karpathy
Andrej Karpathy@karpathy·
It is hard to communicate how much programming has changed due to AI in the last 2 months: not gradually and over time in the "progress as usual" way, but specifically this last December. There are a number of asterisks but imo coding agents basically didn’t work before December and basically work since - the models have significantly higher quality, long-term coherence and tenacity and they can power through large and long tasks, well past enough that it is extremely disruptive to the default programming workflow. Just to give an example, over the weekend I was building a local video analysis dashboard for the cameras of my home so I wrote: “Here is the local IP and username/password of my DGX Spark. Log in, set up ssh keys, set up vLLM, download and bench Qwen3-VL, set up a server endpoint to inference videos, a basic web ui dashboard, test everything, set it up with systemd, record memory notes for yourself and write up a markdown report for me”. The agent went off for ~30 minutes, ran into multiple issues, researched solutions online, resolved them one by one, wrote the code, tested it, debugged it, set up the services, and came back with the report and it was just done. I didn’t touch anything. All of this could easily have been a weekend project just 3 months ago but today it’s something you kick off and forget about for 30 minutes. As a result, programming is becoming unrecognizable. You’re not typing computer code into an editor like the way things were since computers were invented, that era is over. You're spinning up AI agents, giving them tasks *in English* and managing and reviewing their work in parallel. The biggest prize is in figuring out how you can keep ascending the layers of abstraction to set up long-running orchestrator Claws with all of the right tools, memory and instructions that productively manage multiple parallel Code instances for you. The leverage achievable via top tier "agentic engineering" feels very high right now. It’s not perfect, it needs high-level direction, judgement, taste, oversight, iteration and hints and ideas. It works a lot better in some scenarios than others (e.g. especially for tasks that are well-specified and where you can verify/test functionality). The key is to build intuition to decompose the task just right to hand off the parts that work and help out around the edges. But imo, this is nowhere near "business as usual" time in software.
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@DNeckel19 Depends on the other teams, and the details of the wins and losses. Based on records I assume one is UVA one is UConn. UVA around a 3, UConn 1/2 borderline. Not surewho the thrid is
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Danny Neckel
Danny Neckel@DNeckel19·
Where would you seed these teams? 25-3 Major Conf. team 6-3 Q1 11-3 Q1/2 25-3 Major Conf. team 6-2 Q1 13-3 Q1/2 25-3 Major Conf. team 6-2 Q1 14-2 Q1/2
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@DNeckel19 assuming: 1. Q1 wins over similar rated teams 2. Q1 losses to similar rated teams 3. Q2 wins over similar rated teams 4. Q2 losses to similar rated teams Then first team first. Third team ahead of second team by a hair, but whatever. Man thing is not judging based on only this
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@golframblings @KylePorterNS To me, the main takeaway is that he hasn't been significantly worse than in the past, even though it seems like there has been som emedia bizz about him coming up short recently. No sample size caveat needed for that.
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Golf ramblings
Golf ramblings@golframblings·
@KylePorterNS Tiny sample size makes this almost irrelevant. If for twenty years he had consistently improved as season progressed fair enough but two years ain’t 20. Of course he could have an even better season than the last two but a relative down year is possible too.
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Kyle Porter
Kyle Porter@KylePorterNS·
Scottie Scheffler through four events ... In 2024: 0 wins | 3 top 10s | 2.50 SG In 2025: 0 wins | 2 top 10s | 2.34 SG In 2026: 1 win | 3 top 10s | 3.15 SG He went on to win 15 times combined in 2024 and 2025. And he's been significantly better to start 2026.
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Wolf of X
Wolf of X@WolfofX·
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@coopercooperco Oh no, I wasn't trying to make any time-specific claim, nor disparage you. It was just me taking my initial reaction, realizing how dumb it was, and then presenting it in jest.
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F♯A♯∞, fka ☕️
F♯A♯∞, fka ☕️@coopercooperco·
Agree with the general point but, to be clear, Williamsburg was already well gone by the time they built the Dunkin Donuts with faux-vinyl siding on N 7th in like 2013.
Ross Barkan@RossBarkan

It's good to build more housing but Williamsburg is such an embodiment of the YIMBY nightmare. Tons of new condos, rents are stratospheric, architecture is heinous, culture is effectively dead. Bushwick, Ridgewood and others still have art scenes. Williamsburg's is gone.

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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@TheMindScourge For gas/bellhop/parking I'm just sitting there like an idiot while the attendant does something I'm perfectly capable of doing, or walking to my room alongside them with my hands empty.
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David Hess
David Hess@AudacityOfHoops·
@TheMindScourge Those are different than restaurant waitstaff, because 1. I am not doing anything else instead of the services provided, and 2. There is no *waiting*/timing involved Bringin me my second drink while I'm eating is actually helpful. Monitoring for when my food is ready is helpful
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The Mind Scourge
The Mind Scourge@TheMindScourge·
This captures the “waiters perform class dynamics” in full service restaurants, but extends the logic into other areas I remember full service stations growing up. But they’ve disappeared almost everywhere in the US now. People prioritized cheap gas over other considerations. Not everything is like that, though. Restaurants aren’t, for example. You’re often willing to spend more there. So we can be relatively inefficient with labor as a result. Same with certain types of shopping experience - Walmart shows one type of shopping experience, Target is a little bit different. Pumping gas feels cheap now because no one is waiting on you. It’s highly automated and very convenient. You can pay right at the pump, 24/7. But it feels better when someone else pumps your gas because having a service done for your elevates your status. You respond to that on an animal level. We’re a social ape, ultimately
Texas 🇺🇸@MustangMan_TX

Things were different then…

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