𝔸𝕟𝕕𝕪 𝕄
75.8K posts
An F-35A/B Lightning ll made an emergency landing at a U.S. air base in the Middle East this week, after it was struck by what is believed to be Iranian surface-to-air fire, according to two sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CNN. Capt. Tim Hawkins, a Spokesman for U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), said the fifth-generation stealth jet was “flying a combat mission over Iran” when it was forced to make an emergency landing at a base in the Middle East. “The aircraft landed safely, and the pilot is in stable condition,” Hawkins added. “This incident is under investigation.”
BREAKING: The world thought Hormuz was an oil story. Then it became an LNG story. If the damage assessment holds, it becomes a civilisation-input story that lasts half a decade. There is a difference between a shipping shock and a capacity shock that the market has not yet priced. A shipping shock traps molecules. The oil exists, the gas exists, the tankers are anchored, and when the strait reopens the molecules flow again. A capacity shock destroys molecules. The liquefaction trains that convert gas into LNG are physically damaged. The molecules cannot be produced even if every ship in the world is available to carry them. QatarEnergy’s CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters that damage to Ras Laffan is severe. Repairs to impaired liquefaction capacity could take three to five years. Force majeure was declared on March 4 and has since escalated as the damage assessment worsened through March 18 and 19. Long-term contract buyers including Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China face multi-year delivery disruptions. Shell declared force majeure on cargoes it resells from QatarEnergy. The market must now confront a possibility it has refused to model: that roughly 17 percent of Qatar’s 77 million tonne per annum capacity is not delayed but structurally impaired. JERA’s CEO stated that the global LNG market does not have the spare capacity to bridge the gap if Hormuz-linked supply is meaningfully lost. That single sentence reprices everything. If the replacement molecules do not exist in sufficient volume, the adjustment mechanism is not alternative supply. It is fuel switching, demand destruction, and rationing by balance-sheet strength. Rich buyers can pay more. Poor buyers cannot. The poor buyers are already breaking. Vietnam’s diesel is up 40 to 59 percent. Australia’s petrol is up 70 cents per litre. Sri Lanka is rationing fuel with QR codes at 15 litres per car per week, a four-day workweek, and Wednesday school closures. India raised LPG prices while importing 85 percent of its crude through a strait that is 90 percent shut. Gulf air cargo collapsed 79 percent. Jet fuel surged 58 percent. IndiGo and Akasa imposed surcharges. Vietnam Airlines warned of shortages from April. Ninety-five countries have reported petrol price increases since February 28. Ras Laffan is not just LNG. It is helium, urea, methanol, polyethylene, and sulfur. The downstream cascade from a multi-year Qatari impairment runs through semiconductor fabrication, pharmaceutical synthesis, phosphate fertiliser production, food packaging, and desalination. The facility that is damaged produces the molecules that four billion people depend on for chips, medicine, fertiliser, plastic, and drinking water. Europe’s post-2022 gas security was built on Qatari LNG replacing Russian pipelines. A structural impairment does not merely make gas expensive. It makes gas unavailable to industry. That is how an LNG shock becomes a deindustrialisation shock. BASF and Yara are already cutting fertiliser output. Russian LNG fills the gap at 18 to 22 percent of European imports. The country Europe sanctioned is the country Europe now depends on because the country Europe trusted was struck in a war Europe refused to join. Anyone arguing this resolves quickly now carries the burden of proof. They must explain where the replacement molecules come from when the world’s largest LNG hub is physically impaired, the strait is commercially closed, and the CEO of Asia’s biggest power buyer says there is no bridge. The market priced a shipping delay. The evidence demands a capacity repricing. The difference between those two words is measured in years, in trillions of dollars, and in whether the lights stay on. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Damning study of over a million kids finds myocarditis only in the vaccinated dlvr.it/TRb0dz
News: Joe Kent is under FBI investigation for allegedly leaking classified information, three sources tell me. I’m told the investigation pre-dates his departure.
So, as expected, the European Commission has finally activated the Digital Services Act’s (DSA) “rapid response system” in the context of the upcoming Hungarian elections, which gives EU-funded “fact-checkers” and “NGOs” a veto over online speech in Hungary. This is a serious escalation in the EU’s interference in the Hungarian elections. The official explanation is that this is needed to combat “Russian interference”. But as I noted in a recent article for @compactmag, no evidence whatsoever has been produced to support this claim. The narrative almost exclusively relies on an “investigation” by journalists at the Warsaw-based nonprofit VSquare, which claims that Putin has instructed a group of political strategists and Russian military intelligence to interfere in the parliamentary elections in Hungary in April in order to ensure that Orbán wins. And what is the evidentiary basis for this extraordinary claim? It boils down to this (literally): “Multiple European national security sources have told me.” In other words, no evidence whatsoever is provided. We are simply asked to trust the “investigative journalists” in question. One might be inclined to extend that trust if the outlet in question were genuinely independent. Regrettably, it is not. A glance at VSquare’s donor list reveals it to be less an independent journalistic outfit than a textbook example of artificial civil society, funded by entities like the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), USAID, the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and various EU-funded consortia. In other words, VSquare is part and parcel of the “color revolution” infrastructure that, for decades, has sought to bring Central and Eastern Europe in line with the agenda of Brussels and Washington. It’s clear what is happening: they’re applying the Russiagate script that was previously used to subvert the elections in Romania just over a year ago. The aim is twofold. Ideally, tilt the elections in favour of the pro-EU, pro-war opposition candidate Péter Magyar by using the DSA to influence the pre-election online narrative. It’s well-known that the the EU’s “rapid response system” enables approved third parties — the aforementioned EU-funded “fact-checkers” and “NGOs” — to submit priority content moderation requests that disproportionately affect “populist” or EU/NATO-critical actors. If this doesn’t work — and it’s unlikely to work in the Hungarian context — then the allegations of Russian interference serve the purpose of laying the groundwork to delegitimise the result if Orbán wins, by seeding seeding a story of “stolen” or “unfair” elections. This is incredibly dangerous, and is yet another confirmation that the very institutions invoking the threat of foreign interference to justify their intervention are themselves the most consequential foreign actors in Hungary’s election. Read the full article here: compactmag.com/article/russia…
🚨🇮🇷 UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan just issued a joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz. Their commitment: "readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts." @TheInsiderPaper
