Mace (blkn/acc)

4.9K posts

Mace (blkn/acc) banner
Mace (blkn/acc)

Mace (blkn/acc)

@macofweb3

Founder @uselotusai | Building the Execution Layer for Prediction Markets . Vibe @NetworkNoya.Ex @fluiditymoney Member: @SuperteamBLKN

Building Katılım Mayıs 2011
906 Takip Edilen1.1K Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Mace (blkn/acc)
Mace (blkn/acc)@macofweb3·
5 months ago, I started building @uselotusai. I was told your first startup is the hardest. That is true, but it still does not fully prepare you for it. In 2022, I co-founded @crimsonxglobal. We scaled it to 200+ MAU and $100k+. Then it crashed…. Not because we did not understand the pain. We just moved too fast, burned too much, and did not respect how unforgiving the early stage can be. That lesson stayed with me. Lotus started the way a lot of ideas do: first as something I wanted for myself. It began as a bot to trade prediction markets on Telegram. Then it became a terminal. Then, after speaking with more builders and traders, it became clear that the real problem was bigger. The missing piece was not another interface. It was the infrastructure underneath prediction markets: liquidity, execution, fragmentation, routing. The more I spoke to people in the space, the more obvious it became that this was the layer worth obsessing over. Over the last 5 months, I have been heads down building Lotus from the ground up. I have: - built the early layers for liquidity and execution across multiple markets - spoken with builders, traders, and teams across the space - validated the need for what we are building - joined the @Colosseum hackathon In a few weeks, Lotus will be available in private beta for a small group of users. That means we finally get to test the infrastructure with real usage, not just theory. This time around feels different. I am still building hard. Still learning. Still fixing things as I go. But I am also a lot more patient, a lot more disciplined, and a lot more obsessed than I was the first time. If you are a builder, or if you are trying to build something real, I would love to know which part of this resonates most.
Mace (blkn/acc) tweet media
English
6
0
19
802
Cajetan
Cajetan@MonteCarloSpam·
@macofweb3 @uselotusai I got a reasonably large basket of non-toxic uncorrelated position I’d be willing to sell a few bps under fair :). Demand exists!
English
1
0
2
29
Cajetan
Cajetan@MonteCarloSpam·
Some polymarket builder ideas: -trading spreads of contracts directly: yes June 30th and no dec 30, without the double spread -RFQ for larger bundles, like a mm offloading their positions. -OTC trading in a low-trust way
English
4
1
11
1.4K
Mace (blkn/acc)
Mace (blkn/acc)@macofweb3·
@Autonomous_Chad Just looks like a binary perp option , not a polymarket killer 😭🤣 They are better off just making prediction perps
English
0
0
0
30
Quant Chad
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad·
Behold the Polymarket killer, HIP-4 ! an impressive $260K daily volume over all markets. I was right. Without a flexible oracle, HIP-4 is just the kind of binary options you can find on any CEX. Prediction markets live and die by the topics they cover, not by their financial mechanism. No one signed up to @polymarket because they just really wanted to trade binary options. They signed up because they wanted to bet on the Iran war, Presidential elections, or whether or not Trump would say the "N-word". No trading engine is gonna replace that, until @HyperliquidX realizes it, HIP-4 is nothing but a novelty
Quant Chad tweet mediaQuant Chad tweet media
Quant Chad@Autonomous_Chad

While it's true that HIP-4 did more volume than Polymarket on that one market It's important to remember that HIP-4 has litteraly one (1) market at the moment. When you look at total daily volume you get a very different picture. Hip-4 : $1M Polymarket : $170M It's nice to have competition in the prediction markets space but at the current time HIP-4 is very far from being a feature complete Polymarket/Kalshi competitor. What they have is closer to the type of binary options most CEXs offer. I'm waiting for them to roll out a flexible oracle system that could be use to interpret the kind of complex rules prediction markets support before deciding if I'm bullish on it

English
6
1
21
2.9K
Mace (blkn/acc)
Mace (blkn/acc)@macofweb3·
@solana_sailor @colosseum We are building @uselotusai , the 1inch of Prediction Markets . Would love to get your thoughts on what we are cooking even if it means breaking everything , dismantling and uncovering things
English
0
0
3
16
Sailor
Sailor@solana_sailor·
Share your Frontier project 👇 2,857 projects entered. Standing out won’t be easy What makes yours special? Why should people notice it? I’ll pick 4 and highlight them.
Sailor tweet media
English
127
9
155
12.5K
Takisoul
Takisoul@takisoul·
The Frontier Hackathon product directory is live on @colosseum! Share what you’re building. 👇 I’ll check it out and give a short feedback. Repost for exposure, let’s help as many @solana builders as possible!
Colosseum@colosseum

The @Solana Frontier Hackathon product directory is live!🏔️ Frontier was the largest crypto hackathon ever & one of the largest in tech history with 2,857 submissions. Winners and Colosseum's next accelerator startups will be announced next month. arena.colosseum.org/projects/explo…

English
13
2
15
1.7K
Mace (blkn/acc)
Mace (blkn/acc)@macofweb3·
@probabilitygod @thenarrator Many are overlooking the 3rd category PredFi , most aggregators out there are frontend aggregators , but predfi products like @uselotusai who are building unifying layers to allow cross venue execution infra , just like 1inch for PMs.
English
0
0
2
22
probability god
probability god@probabilitygod·
there are mainly 2 categories right now: > building on top of existing platforms in order to route volume to them (aggregators, terminals etc). these are easier to grow inititally because there's already demand for the underlying event contracts > building novel prediction market products that introduce new market structures, which is more scale initially but have an exponential cap, due to low initial liquidity
English
1
1
6
200
good
good@thenarrator·
been talking to a lot of VCs and angels recently about prediction markets the summary is: "very strong teams but most of the ideas are appendages to existing platforms rather than innovative net-new products. technically competent but not venture scale and most prediction market plays don't have a path to outsized outcomes because they're features not businesses" probably the best time to prove em wrong. from what i see behind the scenes i believe a lot of the hidden gems are not given the opportunity to shine
English
22
3
87
5.7K
Mace (blkn/acc)
Mace (blkn/acc)@macofweb3·
Lotus mentioned 🫣
Agora@agoraxyz

We've looked through the entire @colosseum directory. Here are 15 promising dApps we found 👇 1/ @verityxyz TCG and RWAs are both booming, there's quite a limited amount of platform sharing the cake atm. Verity is a new upcoming dApp bringing TCG on-chain. 2/ @AstariaTrade Prediction Market are fun, but it could be funnier. Astaria lets you trade perpetuals (up to x100) on prediction markets. 3/ @cachin_app Spending money locally shouldn't be hard, that's why cachin offers QR-Code payment. 4/ @Cargo_Fi The US Freight market is a $800B Market, with on average a 45 days broker payment time. CargoFi not only fix that but also tokenize the trucks on-chain. 5/ @epochdotm Privacy should be normal, this also apply to prediction markets. Your bets. Private. No Traces. 6/ @Evoracharge You can tokenize energy, that's where Evora hits. With an already existing infra nothing is speculative, it's real. 7/ @Foundrymoney (very cool website) Every agents you run can now have a sub-account, budget, card, and more. Track them all in one place using their dashboard. 8/ @uselotusai Prediction market don't have to be isolated markets. They are changing the game by pulling together everything into one interface, verifying the bets and routing your bets smartly. 9/ @manaclefi Your phone turns into a yield generator. Invest, Trade and earn yield with Stocks. All with your friends. Mixing Trading and Social. 10/ @milky_protocol You need money but only have tokenized RWAs ? Then welcome MLKY, they allow you to borrow USDC agaisn't them. 11/ @NekoProto A Single platform uniting RWAs, Vaults and strategies to earn yield using your stablecoins. 12/ @sortedAUD Sending money to your friends in Australia is a pain, sorted is your solution. One handle, One App, One Second, One Transaction. Anywhere. 13/ @SP3NDdotshop Ebay? Amazon? All On-chain using USDC with NO KYC? Yes, it's possible and it's called SP3ND. 14/ @traderoomsfun You booked an hotel room in Berlin but can't go? No problem, you can trade it, transfer it to anyone using TradeRooms. 15/ @vezta_io (super cool website too) Prediction Market now have a Terminal to trade and it's called VEZTA. Honorable Mentions: @01Resolved , @cesto_co , @BitRouterAI and @ship_dapp Share us any submissions we might have missed or what you're currently building ! Some feedback for future submissions 👇

English
0
0
4
100
Mace (blkn/acc)
Mace (blkn/acc)@macofweb3·
@senzer Cross market parlay would be the beginning , imagine cross venue parlays 🫣
English
0
0
0
24
Senzer
Senzer@senzer·
if Polymarket pulls off sports parlays, the next step is obvious. cross-market parlays combine totally different markets into one bet sports is the easiest entry point, and probably the cleanest one from a regulatory standpoint. but the real upside is way bigger cross-market parlays would be a masterclass and could easily become the flagship product. excited for what's next 🙏
GIF
English
21
1
56
12.6K
Mace (blkn/acc)
Mace (blkn/acc)@macofweb3·
@maxyatsuk @PolymarketDevs Yea reminds me of matrix 😂 great idea , would be nice to see it work irl tho. And this can be a composable implementation for Lotus later on Since our main focus is execution across venues with backed liquidity.
English
0
0
1
20
Max
Max@maxyatsuk·
Yeah, that’s the key shift. Traditional parlays feel like: – stacking bets – maximizing payout – gambling behavior But combinatorial positions can make the same structure feel more like expressing a coherent financial thesis. Not: “I bet on 5 random things.” But: “I believe this specific chain of events is underpriced.” That changes the psychology of the product completely.
English
1
0
1
64
Max
Max@maxyatsuk·
Polymarket may be building the biggest upgrade prediction markets have ever seen I’ve been digging through the new Polymarket v2 contracts and found something much bigger than “parlays are coming.” Under the hood, this looks like infrastructure for trading entire probabilistic scenarios. A new contract called Combinatorial Module was deployed and verified on Amoy testnet, and the deployer is linked to an address Polygonscan labels as Polymarket: Deployer 1. So this does not look theoretical anymore. The core idea is simple: instead of trading isolated events, traders could trade entire chains of outcomes as a single position. Right now prediction markets mostly work like this: 1. Trump wins 2. BTC above $150k 3. Fed cuts rates 4. Recession in 2026 Each market exists independently. But real traders rarely think in isolated events. They think in causal chains. For example: If Trump wins, crypto gets a regulatory tailwind, BTC rallies, risk-on returns, and capital rotates back into high-beta assets. The interesting part is that the new module allows this exact structure to become one position: 1.1 Trump wins 1.2 AND BTC > $150k 1.3 AND Fed cuts rates Not three separate bets. One asset, one payout, one expression of a worldview. And if all legs resolve correctly, the position pays out $1. That means traders can buy cheap convex exposure to an entire macro thesis. If the market prices the scenario at 8¢ and the full chain plays out, the position settles for $1. This is where prediction markets start looking less like betting apps and more like probability derivatives. What makes this even more interesting is that the module appears to work cross-category. Sports, politics, crypto, macro, geopolitics — anything represented as binary/negrisk conditions can theoretically be combined. The contract supports up to 50 legs in a single structure. And the positions are not static. The code includes mechanics for: – splitting positions – merging them – extracting legs – recombining scenarios – compressing resolved conditions – and wrapping existing binary markets into combinatorial positions. In other words: this is not just “build a parlay and wait.” It is closer to building dynamic scenario structures that evolve as the world changes. The NO-side is where things become especially interesting! There is a very important distinction here: NO(A AND B AND C) is NOT the same thing as: NO(A) AND NO(B) AND NO(C) The first one is the complement of the entire scenario: NOT(A AND B AND C) meaning the structure fails if any part of the chain breaks. That subtle difference is why these markets become much more sophisticated than standard YES/NO betting. The market is no longer pricing isolated outcomes. It is pricing the stability of an entire connected narrative. This opens the door to a completely different class of products. At that point, prediction markets stop being “Will X happen?” They become: “Which version of the future is currently mispriced?” There are still two massive open problems. The first is liquidity. Every scenario gets its own conditionId / positionId, but the contract itself does not imply that every combination will have its own standalone orderbook. And if liquidity fragments across millions of possible scenarios, the system breaks immediately. Which means the real unlock is probably synthetic pricing and routing: using liquidity from underlying markets to construct and price scenario positions dynamically. The second challenge is UX. Because probability algebra gets confusing very quickly. Most users will not intuitively understand the difference between: NO(A AND B) and: NO(A) AND NO(B) So the challenge is no longer just building markets. It is building interfaces that make complex probabilistic structures understandable to humans. If Polymarket solves liquidity and UX, v2 may become much more than a prediction market upgrade. It could become the first real probability trading layer for the internet. Bullish. Huge W @devjoshstevens @mustafap0ly @Polymarket @PolymarketDevs @SuhailKakar
Max tweet media
English
33
13
124
16.5K
Suhail Kakar
Suhail Kakar@SuhailKakar·
introducing the new polymarket sdks: one consistent surface for discovery, market data, trading, and websockets typescript and python in beta now, rust and react next! our goal is simple: make polymarket the easiest prediction market to build on
Suhail Kakar tweet media
Josh@devjoshstevens

Introducing the unified TypeScript and Python SDKs, now in beta. One consistent surface for Polymarket discovery, market data, trading, account data, and realtime streams. Python ships with both async and sync clients, so you can choose the model that fits your app. Docs: docs.polymarket.com/dev-tooling Coming soon: unified API, Rust SDK, and React SDK. Our goal is to build the best developer tooling for Polymarket integrations. Feedback welcome: drop it in the discord dev channel, reply here, or DM me.

English
24
6
136
16.8K
Odo | Odomart🌋
Odo | Odomart🌋@0domart·
Short message about @privy_io We have problems with them for 1 month, their support is awful and doesn't understand the root problem. We have to debug ourselves their own code. They take 1 week to answer and completely out. (And we are paying them 5k/month) For any app scaling to 1000+ users, with diversity of wallets used, I don't recommend at ALL Privy. We will shortly migrate off soon
English
176
12
625
106.2K
Focusmo | One task at a time
@macofweb3 the worst version of this: you delay v1 because you can already feel the user's disappointment with it. but the user doesnt exist yet. you're protecting them from a product they havent met.
English
1
0
1
7
Mace (blkn/acc)
Mace (blkn/acc)@macofweb3·
The down side of being a founder with ADHD: You feel entitled to your users experience so much you delay things that are meant to build the experience.
English
1
0
5
102
Peanut Trade
Peanut Trade@PeanutTrade·
Traders won’t stay on a new prediction market… even if you can launch: > new events > new categories > long-tail markets Traders open the book and see: • no depth • wide spreads • no price discovery At Peanut Trade, we know how to fix this. We make new prediction markets tradable from day one! Trader retention starts with liquidity
Peanut Trade tweet media
Peanut Trade@PeanutTrade

x.com/i/article/2049…

English
1
0
2
517
Mace (blkn/acc)
Mace (blkn/acc)@macofweb3·
@0x_Mist Index is worthless without an execution layer that makes every prediction market composable and unified
English
1
0
2
136
Morning Mist
Morning Mist@0x_Mist·
Been saying this for months: most 'prediction market' launches in 2025 are just front-ends for Kalshi and Polymarket liquidity. The actual category winners aren't building new markets, they're building distribution surfaces, the index layer is where the money is.
English
19
0
73
6.6K
Stan
Stan@0xstajus·
This week I participated as a judge at the Demo Day organized by @SuperteamBLKN in Belgrade. 30 teams pitched and battled hard for the top prizes. Congrats to the winners, honorary mentions and other participants - appreciate your efforts! Also a shoutout to the fellow judges @instantfinality @vidor_solflare and @MarkoH_sol, it was a pleasure working together 🤝
Stan tweet mediaStan tweet mediaStan tweet media
English
16
6
63
2.4K
Mace (blkn/acc)
Mace (blkn/acc)@macofweb3·
Right now , i seem to need a technical co founder. If you have prior in-depth experience building infra in DeFi and have worked for a few notable projects before. Lets talk
English
6
0
13
474