Adil

@patrick_saner @stevehou No plans yet but I will keep you updated

@macro786 @stevehou Let's do it! When are you coming to Zurich again? :-)

On inflation expectations: we simply don't know whether they are "anchored". And because no one knows, ppl keep referring to surveys or market based indicators, providing an illusion of certainty. They are anchored until they aren't, simple as that.

@patrick_saner @stevehou Agreed Patrick. Take the BoE’s MaPS survey. Most participants are actually answering what they think the BoE wants to hear (talking from personal experience). I can tell you another story of the DMP survey but I will leave that for in person 😊

@stevehou I leave this to the PhDs to decipher 😉 Imo it's not useless per se, but relying on it as "proof" - which literally every monetary policy maker does - creates more fragility than resilience. It's an anecdote, like many things in economics and markets. Useful, but no holy grail.

@VKMacro I think the post could have been worded better. By not persistent, I think they mean that Brent/WTI catch up to ME benchmarks as inventories are drawn down and Asian buyers bid globally

Doesn’t it literally have to persistent while the strait is closed ?

@JavierBlas @Agotthelf The Houthis could strike if Saudi directly retaliates with strikes of its own. It doesn’t seem like the base case but a risk.

@Agotthelf Where do you see the trap?

Well, looks like a trap, doesn't it?

@TheStalwart @MrMarket85 @Citrini7 When was the last time that you saw the market move based on a Substack post?

@MrMarket85 @Citrini7 when was the last time you saw a market maker call out a substack post?

I'm honestly astonished that Citadel Securities published a rebuttal to the @Citrini7 piece. citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insig…

@super_macro What would your hedge be in rates? It seems that traditional risk off plays aren’t doing a good job

super-macro.com The S&P 500 is priced for perfection, but is the ice starting to thin? With 425 companies reported, Q1 EPS growth is tracking at a solid 13.2%. While 2026 projections look healthy at 14%, the index is now trading at a stretched 21.5x forward multiple. With almost no margin for error, any further slip in Mag-7 momentum could trigger a sharp derating. Are investors ignoring the valuation cliff in favor of the earnings hype? There are inexpensive hedges. Get our deep dive into valuation risks & the Mag-7 earnings outlook: super-macro.com (Claim your 30-day free trial on our daily notes!)

@MrMBrown Source?

Neither Rachel Reeves, nor her deputy, have access to any services via which they can monitor financial markets Furthermore, despite employing around 2,000 people, HM Treasury has just 11 (eleven!) Bloomberg Terminals They are quite literally asleep at the wheel

@nickgiva1 Reeves seems to be treading v. carefully pre-election. Let’s give it a few months and see the first budget before judging in my humble opinion

@nickgiva1 I’d humbly disagree - I mean I’m not optimistic Labour can make any meaningful reform but it’s far from the 70s Labour. A lot of left wingers were axed by Starmer or have gone indep’. Also UK politicians are shit scared to blow up the gilt market post Truss…

Here we go. All the same bullslhit from the same "public servants" as in '70s. Cycle goes like this: 1. Labour supermajority. 2. Within weeks Labour left wing MPs rebel and ask for huge pay rises for "public servants". 3. Inflation through the roof. 4. Gilts crises. 5. Economy crashes. 6. GBP under parity. 7. Winter of discontent. 8. New Maggie T. elected. Have fun staying poor for the next decade, UK. That's how long it takes.

@MichaelAArouet Or is that because China is shifting towards higher skilled/more technical production rather than the cheap textile, toys and other low value added goods the country produced historically?

There is a lot of talk about Western companies leaving China due to geopolitical risk. It’s not only that, other countries in Asia are actually much cheaper.

@dampedspring @Douglas1953nj @EconstratPB Jamie as in Jamie Dimon? Excuse the silly question. And what traits do you see in common amongst these people that sets them apart from the many others attempting to make it in the investing world?

@macro786 @Douglas1953nj @EconstratPB These are people I worked with directly only. Ray, Jamie, Greg Jensen, and someone you wouldn't have heard of

@dampedspring @Douglas1953nj @EconstratPB Who makes the other four out of curiosity

@Douglas1953nj @EconstratPB You have no idea how smart. Top 5 in my personal experience

I'll let KKT make my point for me. @EconstratPB . Starts at 6:00 minutes. youtube.com/watch?v=ZvpNFC…

@IFM_Economist Interesting. Link to original post?

IMF table highlights that stronger transmission of monetary policy to households is key in explaining why the RBA's policy settings differ in terms of level from other countries.

@PtrPomorski I am a junior ‘somewhere else’. How long would you recommend to stay before trying to move to buy side

It seems that currently the best funds to work for are Jane & Citadel BUT: - if you are not from a target school then bye - if you are from a target school you must go through an interview that 99% of seniors would fail Easier to be a junior somewhere else and come back as a senior

@jnordvig Interested but can’t seem to message you (for CV)

One of my clients (a top global hedge fund) is looking to add a young trader, to support the trading activity of senior PMs. Strong independent macro thinking is key. Ping me if you have suggestions (London based)

@dampedspring Your advise for an analyst (currently a sell side rates strategist) on building a framework and moving to buy side (HF)

Any random questions that you've been pondering that I could address in a thread? Work stories? Nerdy technical things? Framework?

@Fullcarry Yardeni?

If Roubini is Dr. Doom, who is Dr. Boom?

@sonusvarghese Ridiculous! Pakistan vs India matches were always about raw talent, raw crowds and raw theatre. Not sure trying to commercialise this will yield anything for cricket or for fans.

Whoa! This is nuts… A sporting event in Long Island with minimum tickets starting above $2k But … it’s an India vs Pakistan cricket match!

@EconBerger What do you propose/recommend as an alternative to the mainstream understanding and method to forecasting?

The super-majority erroneously forecasting recession was relying on mainstream "understanding" of how the economy works. The forecast was bad because the "understanding" was incorrect, not because the inference from that "understanding" was flawed

@fxmacroguy How do you keep up and track all this info? Great content as always!

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