Macro Punting
755 posts
Macro Punting
@macro_punting
markets addict, anything macro
Katılım Haziran 2021
162 Takip Edilen1.5K Takipçiler
@dMacro_dBS Best we can do is another Peace Price from FIFA 🤣
English
Trump has been on a real bad streak. He needs a win. Give him something poor guy. Like a certificate that says “Super Helper” or “Kindness Star” 💫
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: U.S. trade court strikes down Trump’s 10% global tariffs.
English
If they did this in the US and charged people for corruption in the US admin 😱
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex
BREAKING: Chinese court sentences former defense ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu to death with two-year reprieve over corruption charges
English
@VKMacro @macropotamus Think so too, most popular g10 fx long. Though hedge ratios from supers could be an issue if they decide to chase it up
English
AUD breaking out. Not much retracement so far. Folks under-own this.
English
@macropotamus Had a couple glitches this week, timing out and stuff, but results seemed decent still
English
Is ChatGPT deprecated? Been running the same prompt everyday for a month and the last three days it has not worked.
English
Possibly because I'm bitter, but it's wild to me that the BoJ is not hiking next week with this backdrop:
- USDJPY at 160
- Brent at 105
- Nikkei at 60k
- March Summary of Opinions was very hawkish
- April OIS was 17bps 2w ago
Despite all of this, they will do a "hawkish" hold.
English
@cchengasaurus Can they drop bombs some time NY mng and after a nice 20bps rally... asking for a friend
English
@macro_punting I think it was both!
During the question specifically on time to neutral, Breman was talking about maybe hiking every meeting or every other meeting.
Paul stepped in and said it’s conditional on the economy so it’s too hard to say - which is the right response
English
@VKMacro Thanks, so more about stumbling through it than wrong message
English
@macro_punting She also got stuck twice. Once on financial conditions, second on likely rate path ahead.
English
@ChampagneP65975 @dMacro_dBS Exactly, it takes skill! I am at the point where I might start trying to lose money and then I think I should be making money. 4d chess here
English
@macro_punting @dMacro_dBS I’d like to see ChatGPT lose 25 bps in a 15 bp sell off !
English
The real definition of “masochism” is continuing to trade Sonia rates after getting rolled at least once a year (guilty AF here)
GIF
English
@dMacro_dBS If you had asked me end of Feb how much i could lose, I'd have far underestimated my actual march pnl
English
@macro_punting I agree but hard to time it or even have it on now… especially after the massive pain this month so far. Too many injured people including yours truly :)
English
1 month after the start of the US+Israel/Iran war:
US 5y5y nominal = +34bps
US 5y5y Inflation = - 9bps
US 5y5y real rate = +43bps
1month after the start of the Russia/Ukraine war:
US 5y5y nominal = +32bps
US 5y5y Inflation = +24ps
US 5y5y real rate = +8bps
GIF
English
@cchengasaurus @Fullcarry Have to build a CIX.... RV0001P 5Y BLC Curncy - USOSFR5 Curncy
English
5y SOFR swap spreads have been heavy lately and just narrowed below -35 bps. Tactically good level IMO esp with the possibility of reg relief soon
English
@macrokurd Thanks for your views. What do you make of the troop build up? Tripoli arriving Friday, etc? US show of force to help negotiations or next escalation?
English
