@Geo_papic @Geo_papic is there a refresh of this? my sense is this has been going up significantly in the last 3 days after Iran recalibrated its target list.
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Pascal Kummert
11 posts
Pascal Kummert
@macroalpha
Founder & CIO at Calvion Capital. Next Gen Macro Investing = macro-political regime shifts. Not investment advice, views are my own and not of Calvion Capital.
Miami Katılım Temmuz 2014
1.2K Takip Edilen204 Takipçiler
Either Iran is holding back capacity in order to threaten Hormuz and Gulf energy production... or...
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This is the signal
👇
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent@SecScottBessent
On behalf of @POTUS, @USTradeRep and I have held a very productive two days of talks in Paris, France with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss trade and economic relations between our countries. We will be issuing a statement in the next few days reaffirming the stability in the relationship between the first and second largest economies in the world.
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@robin_j_brooks Exactly. The trade wasn’t the US tariffs. Those were well telegraphed. The trade is now anticipating China’s move next
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There is one trade.
Long USD/ Short everything in Asia
Chinese deval probability has gone up meaningfully.
Wave of deflation about to be exported from China
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
It's remarkable that global FX markets are doing nothing in response to large reciprocal tariffs. This is basically a metric for how much credibility markets assign to such news at this point. All the back and forth on tariffs means no one is trading any of this in markets...
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@realKunalAShah any clue if auto tariffs for EU and china tariffs are stacked? still cant find
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@FibonacciInves1 pre tax payment deadline selling to liquidate investments for cash to pay IRS...
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@MacroAlf outlined well that the consensus "Goldilocks" regime favors emerging market asset allocations. But is that a stable equilibrium and what's next?
linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…
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@michaeljswalker @Geoffreytsmith Yes, this is the case in Argentina. Spoiler alert: it didn’t help and added to the problem.
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Have you ever heard a government minister say landlords should hold rent below inflation? Or told business owners they should hold down prices and take a hit on profits? Because we’re hearing a lot of them demand that of workers today!
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Pascal Kummert retweetledi
#Kazakhstan rebrands its oil to avoid Russian sanctions contagion - my piece for @eurasianet #Russia #Ukraine #sanctions
bit.ly/3tiVW2q
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@RaoulGMI Agree trading headlines makes little sense. Though, it is this attitude that leads to the opportunities for my firm. Traditional macro players have no rigorous process when politics interfere with economics. It requires digging so much deeper to anticipate the headlines!
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@dmg_FutexLive any quick tweets you can feed us on euros to and bunds at these levels? False breakout or continuation?
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