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@BillBrrr Appreciate it, ty!

@macrodeez Open Bull Gaps below + reclaims of the 50 and 200MAs put ball back in bulls court. How retests are handled will be best indicator alongside continuing to monitor Big Money positioning in dark pools – must always be fluid!

$XLE – Guess where we sold down to and then bounced from? The next biggest dark pool level! You should know the saying by now so I won't repeat it ...

@MacrostratPB Just curious. Were you long 10s (close out) or are you going short?

@DVSignals Appreciate it ty!

@DVSignals Ty. So short term bearish but medium term bullish it seems

$CL #oil #USO Over the last months, I’ve seen a lot of “oil to 80/70/50/30 soon” takes, while people still seem far too comfortable staying bullish stocks... I keep seeing the opposite: oil has built a massive rounded base / cup on the daily, price is pressing back into the highs, and the MACD still looks constructive rather than topped out... Yes, it is extended, but extended is not the same as bearish. Bullish until proven otherwise...

@CRUDEOIL231 Appreciate the color, learning a lot from you hyungnim!

I actually wrote this back on March 18th to explain things to my Korean friends, but I'm posting it here on X as well since so many ppl still seem to get it wrong. Global Total Crude Inventory = Commercial MOI + Commercial Available Inventory + Surplus crude + SPR The world looks like it’s overflowing with oil, but prices don’t wait for all 2 billion barrels of global inventory to vanish before they spike. Every single time oil crossed $100/bbl, it was the same story. Take the US as the prime example. Right now, US commercial crude inventory is sitting around 440 million barrels, but that number physically cannot drop below 280–300 million. You might say, "What the hell are you talking about? Just draw it down, you idiot lol." But let’s look a bit closer. That "Commercial MOI" I mentioned stands for Minimum Operating Inventory. This isn't oil sitting in a refinery tank or a hub ready to be used instantly. MOI is the volume physically locked in the system you cannot pull out. It’s the baseline required just to keep the entire US oil system running. Here are the main components: 1) Linefill: This is the oil filling the entire pipeline network across the US. bc of the "push from one end to get out the other" structure, about 110–120 million barrels must stay in the pipes at all times. 2) Tank Bottoms: This is the volume at the very bottom of storage tanks that pumps literally can’t reach. Estimated at around 80–90 million barrels. 3) In-transit & Working Stock: The minimum volume sitting on tankers, barges, or waiting at refineries to be blended and fed into the units. Without this base feed, the refinery simply stops. Just combining Linefill and Tank Bottoms (Unavailable Stocks) gives you ~200 million barrels. Add the Working Stock needed for operational flexibility, and ~300 million barrels becomes the actual hard floor. I used the US as an example, but you probably get the point by now. The "Global Total Onshore Inventory" figure includes all that MOI—Linefill, Tank Bottoms, etc. Since it’s global, we don't have the exact numbers, but this MOI accounts for 60-70% of the total figure. Minimum Working Stock is another 20-25%. Most of those 2.3 billion barrels are scattered across tens of thousands of kilometers of pipelines and the bottoms of thousands of storage tanks. The vast majority is essential just to keep the system alive; it’s physically impossible to gather it all in one place and dump it onto the market. Therefore the actual available crude—the delta actually moves prices and balances—is much smaller than ppl think. That’s why the oil market sees massive price swings even over a quarterly shift of just 1mb/d. Think of the "buffer" I mentioned as cash on hand for immediate liquidity. The rest of those 2.3 billion barrels? That’s like your factory equipment. No matter how much equipment you have, if you run out of cash, you go bankrupt. The oil market is the same; once that tiny sliver of available crude vanishes, the system hits a crisis and faces desperate bidding. Right now, we are in the phase of burning through the "excess cash" in the corporate account. And we're doing it very fast. Next we'll start dipping into personal savings. But like most business owners, there isn't actually much cash in the personal account. It’ll run dry in no time. Now imagine if you knew as long as you kept the factory running, you could eventually pay off the debt and fix the cash flow—but right now you don’t have a single cent of available cash. What happens? To keep the factory from going under, you’d do anything to scrape together cash for the electric bill and payroll. You’d sell your kid’s iPhone or even put your wife on the street—you’d do anything desperate to get that cash. Once we hit that stage, prices go absolutely vertical. Bottom line: when the buffer is gone, you have to start withdrawing all available commercial inventory. The pace will be lightning fast. Even the ppl who were sitting on the sidelines hoping for the war to end will start bidding desperately bc they need oil 'right now'. I’m not just acting calm or pretending I’m okay with this taking a long time. Even if you believe a long position is the way to go, there’s a specific process and setup must be cleared for the environment to force prices up. And it won't take that long. Until then I expect vol to be absolutely violent in both directions. #oott #com

@omshanti08 Thanks again Wolf! Have a great weekend

@omshanti08 Wolf… the GOAT!!! Undefeated undisputed champ

@dMacro_dBS Expectation but unfortunately not reality!

This is exhausting. Not even fun anymore. Can we go back to debating AI, which jobs are getting obliterated, terminal value of software companies, government deficits, bond issuance, Epstein files, and most importantly what we’re drinking tonight

@omshanti08 Aye aye captain 🫡

@omshanti08 Escalation for the next month or two? Houthis have an invitation to the party… so I guess the party won’t stop!

@STIR_Trader_ @passedpawn @Dcpcooks Why can’t they hike? Plus who cares if they do or not… the curve is so flat. SFRM6 or FFQ6 gives an almost free option in case they do. If not, you leave with a paper cut unless they do a surprise cut. My view is hike > cut is likely in the next 3 months if it’s not a pause

I wonder why market doesn't agree to it. I understand the move during first week of March when people were forced to liquidate. But why are STIRs still pricing hike odds if everyone thinks hiking is not an option? Please don't say market participants who are pricing hike odds are stupid.

Chicago Fed forecasting U3 inching higher Breakevens going lower We could get an ugly payroll number too Hike into that with the stress in private credit With crack spreads blowing out and crude where it’s at and possibly boots on the ground Can’t see them hiking Think they do nothing until they have to cut Damn lots of storm clouds on the horizon

@Credit_Junk Source?

{ia} IRANIAN MEDIA SAYS THERE WAS NO DIRECT OR INDIRECT CONTACT WITH TRUMP AND CLAIMS HE WITHDREW AFTER THREATENING TO ATTACK WEST ASIA ENERGY FACILITIES

@WarrenPies Mental fade or adding a position to fade? There’s been so many front end longs in EUR/GBP rates that got taken to the woodshed. Think it will apply to USD rates, hard to fade right now. The time will come but not now. Core CPI/OER gonna go up next 3 months, optics will be bad

Absolutely fading the idea that the Fed will hike into a SOH closure. Yet, the energy crisis is tying their hands. All about optics and political survival instincts until material econ weakness emerges (excerpt from yesterday's report).

@MacrostratPB On top of your RATE HIKE view which have odds that are growing by the day. Great freaking call man

@macropotamus Hard to stay long front end for now. The time will come but just need more bearishness/hawkishness priced in first before long rates take over 👊

I interpreted the presser differently, posturing versus intention.

Dovish relative to pricing like the BoC.

@LordPos3idon As always, appreciate your thoughts! Thanks man

I don’t own XLE, I own OXY which is in XLE. I like to give broad bets also because I don’t want to seem like I’m always pumping the stocks I own. But essentially no, I am not selling any of my OXY or NEXT which is an LNG plays. I will hold them. I think the real short term risk here is to oil futures more than equities. I still love XLE

Oil longs need to take profits asap, they are about to crush you big time. The narrative has changed. Stagflation bucket about to get hit, it is a buy the dip opportunity however eventually but don’t catch a falling knife, take profit, GET OIT, and patiently wait to reestablish longs.. Mag 8 & China longs need to be established IMMEDIATELY. Don’t complain about how nothing has fundamentally changed and that markets are being manipulated, all that is true, but if you know it’s coming, who is to blame but yourself?

@NikLentz Think further out catches up to the front and we bear steepen. The fade will come later on, but for now it’s a repricing of the curve first!

BONDS / RATES / FX Yesterday was one of the most interesting days I can remember recently when it comes to bond market dynamics. The selloff across the front of the curve made little sense to me, aside from the idea that inflation will become embedded and force the Fed to hike into a supply crunch driven by inflation dynamics. Oil price shocks act as a massive tax on consumers, especially those in the lower income quantiles, which would hurt growth, damage sentiment, and over time lead to demand destruction across the oil curve. When we look at the oil curve we see heavy backwardation at the front, while the supposed inflation shock is not being priced further out in time. Barring the fact that interest rate hikes would do nothing to stop a mine or drone attack in the Strait of Hormuz, and with an economy that is already slowing and just printed a -90k jobs report with negative revisions, it is hard to see hikes happening anytime soon. We also have some concerns about potential credit stress and a possible crunch across private markets, which has flipped the cyclical rotation on its head with many investors dumping banks. Add in an AI “bubble” trade that is already showing signs of stress, and even a hint of a Fed hiking path would destabilize markets almost instantly. I have been critical of the Fed most of my life, but I still believe they can at least read the room. Powell is unlikely to repeat the “far from neutral” mistake, where markets forced his hand into adjustments that otherwise would not have been necessary. With that in mind, I would still fade the current selling in the front end.