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@VolumeLeaders $EWZ please

Let's do some charts. I'll post a bunch in the comments. Emphasis on semis as that seems to be where all the action is lately.

@dMacro_dBS Wow did not know you were a man of culture like that. One of the greatest quotes ever!

Our fat orange buffoon president should learn this from Lil Wayne: “Real G’s move in silence like lasagna.”

@yieldsearcher What do you mean by wrong? The market is the market. Just a trade at the end of the day. So many people fading this move which is also causing rates to sell off more because of stop outs.

While respecting the broader cross-FX flow driving global rates right now, one thing I am quite convinced of is that the current SOFR curve is wrong (as it is 99% of the time). We can all agree this inflation impulse is being driven by the SoH closure. We will not have this impulse lasting thru Jan 2027 like the rates mkt is assuming because we will run out of unprintable physical oil inventories by then under any reasonable assumptions. Global demand curtailment will be put in place way before the end of this yr. If the SoH reopens, oil retraces back and the hiking impulse fades with it. As we are entering week 12 of this war with US-China summit mum about the future of the SoH, the endgame is increasingly pointing one way.

@MacrostratPB Very nice trade 🫡

@VolumeLeaders $XOP please!

Let's do some charts. Post a ticker in the comments. One ticker per customer, please.

@Fullcarry @BottleofDaniel Yah I hear ya. Feel like even with the discount, optically just looks so bad. Year of reflexivity? Price in hikes and fed takes that option? Dont think the Fed actually hikes during this period but can see the mkt price a bit more.

@macrodeez @BottleofDaniel We know its a quirk so market will discount it barring other issues with the report

Tomorrow's April CPI will be a double whammy. Headline will surge because of crude and core will set higher to correct for the "error" from last Oct because of the government shutdown.

@Fullcarry @BottleofDaniel This OER print might finally get a reaction from Fed governors, been only regional presidents so far that have been somewhat hawkish. At m6u6, 0.03 still pretty cheap imo

@BottleofDaniel M6 and U6 feeling it

@CRUDEOIL231 @ALikhodedov @OilCfd As always, thanks for your color 💪

Thanks for the great point. I also appreciate the insightful comments from @ALikhodedov , @OilCfd , and other traders on my original post. To dive a bit deeper, I’m not saying that the scale of supply loss is exaggerated or the underlying facts of the oil market have changed. The loss from the MEG is still massive, and Hormuz remains closed. However we need to look at it from the physical buyers' perspective. Let me quote a bit from the report I wrote last week: "Asia has gained some breathing room as panic-bought cargoes from the early stages of the conflict are now arriving, and they are betting and praying for a quick resolution. They believe Iran’s resolve and leverage have weakened, and the fact China is releasing barrels from its SPR has given them hope. For the next week or two, this hope and wait-and-see approach may prevail, likely keeping prices within a large range with a set ceiling. We might even touch the floor first." Plz don't misunderstand—I'm not trying to claim victory here. I also didn't expect this barrage of news, so I bought in a bit too early yesterday and took a loss. With barrels and freight being so expensive, no one wants to risk being the fool who bid at an outrageous price if a deal actually goes through. Of course they can't stay on the sidelines forever. But from a timing perspective, just as we’ve gained enough physical room to reassess the situation, news headlines are injecting hope into the market. If the physical need were desperate, they would be forced to bid regardless of that hope. But the timing of the May arrivals in Asia coincides perfectly with the revival of this optimism, causing benchmarks to shake. The question shifts from "Where do I get barrels right now?" to "If the Strait opens, won't we be facing an oversupply of physical barrels?" Consequently, until the buying cycle resumes, buyers have the luxury to wait instead of immediately snapping up additional cargoes from WAF, Russia, Latam. This in turn, keeps physical diffs suppressed. I believe we should approach this from a psychological standpoint. Most Asian buyers I’ve spoken with here share this sentiment. If the facts don't change, this won't last long. Whether they run out of feedstock or their hopes are crushed, they will eventually have to move. Until then, there's no need to be impatient. Just watch if the facts change and let time do its work. We can't control the process anyway. #oott #iran

@Fullcarry Decent risk added past 2 days. Prob some positioning cleaning up. Plus that big 2y block ain’t helping things out. Personal opinion is that tomorrow’s print is inconsequential and we just look forward to CPI next week.

USTs under pressure with crude still at lows. Concerns about a strong NFP tomorrow?

@HyperbolicDisco Appreciate it, ty!

@macrodeez Not sure, but I think the direction of travel is locked in for the foreseeable future. Having said that, I think one should be prepared for a $15+ puke at any moment.

If you held BZM through the April 17 plunge, give thanks. I’m 2/3 out of the trade at $120, leaving the rest to ride or die into cash settlement tomorrow. The lesson? When a bolito set-up presents, bet with size. Widen your stop. Strap yourself to the mast. What’s a bolito? See link below. Hormuz is still closed, the wells shut-in, local storage full, and VLCCs in all the wrong places. Added NTM calls last week on the ICE Brent July through October contracts. Still hold 100/110 June 16 expiry call spreads on CLN. Will add BZM if it pukes. Lightning frequently strikes twice. Look it up. Ask yourself: Is this meme right for you? youtu.be/U5J_Uh7rUCQ?si…

@MacrostratPB EWY looks like a hybrid between bullish AI and bearish because of oil. Thoughts on it?

@chart550M Isn’t this chart similar across all energy names divided by USO? Like VLO/USO? If your scenario plays out, what’s your read on XLE?

The US oil export ban is no longer a tail risk; it’s now the base case. As crude tanker and US midstream charts break down while PADD 3 refineries show strength, a major policy shift appears imminent. Most concerning are the death cross and bear flag in the PAA/USO ratio - this divergence between logistics and commodity is a massive warning sign. $FRO $PAA $USO $XLE $VLO Technical study for educational purposes; not financial advice or a trade signal. (8ema orange / 21ema purple / 50sma yellow / 150sma blue / 200sma green)

@MacrostratPB Thanks!

@MacrostratPB @statter_gg Can you dm me the screenshot too please? Went thru today’s chat but I am blind, couldn’t find it!

@BillBrrr You’ve been spot on with XLE man. Good stuff, back to rally mode for energy equities

$SPY is melting up to ATHs as $XLE melts back up to this print. Very interesting! $VIX also pushing up a bit during the index advance. New ATHs and a rugger back to those leveraged ETFs $SSO $QLD would be nasty work.

@BillBrrr Thanks!

@macrodeez Volume Leaders

Nice low volume rest day for indexes. Decent size intraday DP on $SMH this morning which might mean a pullback or pause for semi stuff early next week. A little rotation quickly out of there and right back into software would be funny. I locked in majority of my $NVDA swing.

@BillBrrr Appreciate it, ty!

@macrodeez Open Bull Gaps below + reclaims of the 50 and 200MAs put ball back in bulls court. How retests are handled will be best indicator alongside continuing to monitor Big Money positioning in dark pools – must always be fluid!

$XLE – Guess where we sold down to and then bounced from? The next biggest dark pool level! You should know the saying by now so I won't repeat it ...