Derek Tang

1.8K posts

Derek Tang

Derek Tang

@macroderek

Fedwatcher @mpamacro

Washington Katılım Ekim 2015
297 Takip Edilen896 Takipçiler
Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
@carney Powell is governor (member) until 2028. With Vice Chair Jefferson in place, it is unclear why he claims the no-VC precedents apply today. Trump's scope to pick an acting Chair is constrained, unlike what Carter did: x.com/macroderek/sta…
Derek Tang@macroderek

If Chair Warsh is not confirmed when Powell's Chair term ends, Vice Chair Jefferson takes on Board Chair duties. Only if there's neither Chair nor VC (not VC Supervision) may Board governors elect a governor (like a recent Chair) as Chair pro tem meantime x.com/bindersab/stat…

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John Carney
John Carney@carney·
Powell does not have the authority to appoint himself chair pro tem. Arguably, the board also lacks that authority. If there’s no chair of the Fed board on May 16, Trump gets to pick one of the governors.
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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
@vtg2 Right, and that was because Greenspan's Chair term lapsed March, before Vice Chair Rivlin took office only in June, leaving a gap with no VC making pro tem necessary. So Powell's reference to precedent here is peculiar when Vice Chair Jefferson is in office.
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Victoria Guida
Victoria Guida@vtg2·
Fed Chair Powell confirms he would stay on as Fed chair pro tem if Kevin Warsh isn't confirmed by the time Powell's term as chair ends. Also adds: "I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over."
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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
@vtg2 But Powell could only be elected by governors as Chair pro tem because there was no Board Vice Chair between Clarida and Brainard present, right? "In the absence of the chairman AND THE VICE CHAIRMAN, the board shall elect a member to act as chairman pro tempore." (emph added)
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Victoria Guida
Victoria Guida@vtg2·
Worth noting that Powell previously served as chair pro tem after the end of his last chair term four years ago because President Biden renominated him relatively late in the game and then the Senate took a bit to get around to confirming him.
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Derek Tang retweetledi
Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
We told clients mid-Apr Powell was uncharacteristically imprecise about whether serving out his "term" meant Chair (26) or Governor (28). Then, a connected FT commentator said Powell will "probably" stay thru 28. Today, Powell declined to answer. ft.com/content/e7140a…
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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
@SenThomTillis However, "Pirro, who CNBC has learned planned to appeal the ruling, is set to give an update on the probe of Powell on Friday afternoon," per @cnbc @_DanMangan
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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
There is now a clearer path to Warsh's accession by late May as @SenThomTillis not not inclined to advancing any Fed nominees (e.g., Warsh) until the Powell probe was put to rest.
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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
@BrendanPedersen The governor terms are staggered and only the Kugler-Miran term has the 2026 start date. Cook's term is on the 2024-2038 cycle.
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Brendan Pedersen
Brendan Pedersen@BrendanPedersen·
One unusual thing about this nomination is that it does not identify who Warsh will be replacing on the Fed’s board. Gov. Miran is on an expired term, while the WH is trying to fire Gov. Cook. BUT: a White House official confirms to me now that this would replace Miran.
Brendan Pedersen@BrendanPedersen

News: The White House has officially sent its nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Senate Banking Committee. Sen. Tillis (R-NC) has said he will block this nom until DOJ drops its criminal inquiry into Fed Chair Powell

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Steve Matthews
Steve Matthews@SteveMatthews12·
Hopefully Powell is understanding he may need to stay as governor past May through 2028 to preserve his legacy and Fed independence. Or at least keep that option alive until he sees how events unfold.
Derek Tang@macroderek

We told clients mid-Apr Powell was uncharacteristically imprecise about whether serving out his "term" meant Chair (26) or Governor (28). Then, a connected FT commentator said Powell will "probably" stay thru 28. Today, Powell declined to answer. ft.com/content/e7140a…

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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
Correction: from December's 2.1%.
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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
While FOMC's own UNCODIFIED rules let it pick/keep non-Warsh as its Chair, it would defy Trump and Congress, who picked/confirmed the Fed Chair to lead monetary policy. An official once warned FOMC may keep Powell as FOMC Chair EVEN IF Trump demotes him: nytimes.com/2019/08/25/bus…
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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
If Warsh becomes Fed (Board) Chair, then the FOMC would almost certainly hold a new election to make him (and no longer Powell) FOMC Chair. The FOMC Chair vote matters if Warsh is delayed past Jun mtg, for if Powell stays on, he would still lead the FOMC.
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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
Powell was selected as FOMC Chair for the whole of 2026 until there is a successor: per FOMC Minutes. Powell remains FOMC Chair in June, etc., if he stays on as Governor Powell AND a new Fed Chair (Warsh) remains pending.
Derek Tang tweet media
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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
@NickTimiraos Precisely, it's the consequence of Chair selection delayed in 2022 so the Governor/Chair terms became out of sync. With Powell's 2nd term pending and VC Brainard confirmed later: Powell was elected Board Chair pro tem. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
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Derek Tang retweetledi
Nick Timiraos
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos·
In 2006, 2014, and 2018 this wasn’t an issue in the FOMC minutes because at the January meeting, the outgoing chair was already preparing to leave as governor and the incoming chair had been on the cusp of (days away from) Senate confirmation. The new chair had also already been sworn in by the time the January meeting minutes were published.
Derek Tang@macroderek

Powell was selected as FOMC Chair for the whole of 2026 until there is a successor: per FOMC Minutes. Powell remains FOMC Chair in June, etc., if he stays on as Governor Powell AND a new Fed Chair (Warsh) remains pending.

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Derek Tang
Derek Tang@macroderek·
@robblackwellAB In contrast, Warsh wanted work done on a two-tier dollar-Central Bank Digital Currency several years ago...this might not sit well with current Republican thinking.
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Rob Blackwell
Rob Blackwell@robblackwellAB·
Bessent says Trump views CBDC as anathema to America's interests. Says he hopes Fed feels the same.
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Keşfet

@carney @vtg2 @SenThomTillis @CNBC @_DanMangan @BrendanPedersen @SteveMatthews12 @SteveMiran