Monetary Policy Analytics, Inc.

@macroderek shares thoughts on the war's complication of the Fed's policy outlook. @AmerBanker americanbanker.com/news/iran-scra…

With inflation still elevated, many Fed officials are wary of repeating the mistake, making any cuts less likely as long as inflation is elevated. “I think they are a little scarred from the blowback they got from the word ‘transitory,’” said @macroderek. wtop.com/news/2026/03/h…

"The space the Fed has to look through a shock like this is smaller now for the March meeting," says MPA Macro's @macroderek. Read more from @TheNationalNews below.

The war in the Middle East "could raise inflation expectations more than actual inflation itself," says @macroderek. And this "would add insult to injury to household budgets." @SPGlobal spglobal.com/market-intelli…

"It does strike me as odd that there's been no forward movement on the Warsh nomination," shares MPA Macro's @macroderek in the latest from @annsaphir @Reuters. reuters.com/world/us/trump…

MPA Macro's @macroderek spoke with @Marketplace @carlamjavier about price stability. Listen below (17:00). marketplace.org/episode/2026/0…

"Warsh’s views are going to evolve over time,” says LHMeyer's @macroderek. His views from the past are “not a good guide of what he could do as Fed chair.” @MarketWatch

"The administration...is taking on a really broad view of what can be changed at the Fed. A new chair is just the first part of that story." @macroderek @FT ft.com/content/5c1af4…

"A lot of the battles Warsh is fighting seem to be battles from two decades ago,” observed @macroderek. A big question, according to Tang, is how Warsh will adapt to the current day. @MarketWatch

"Powell has a big job on his hands." LHMeyer's @macroderek expects Powell to reiterate that the Fed is well positioned to see how the economy evolves, while avoiding guidance on a possible March move. @AmerBanker americanbanker.com/news/fed-likel…

FX interventions have prompted market interest in Japan's footprint in dollar funding markets and therefore impact of foreign asset sales. Yen appreciation was prompted by reports of rate checks by the NY Fed on yen pricing. Reach out to learn more from @macroderek.

Conventional wisdom is that "the case could drag on, but in the meantime, Cook gets to stay on the board...If it's anything other than that, the market is going to see that as a catastrophe, because we don't really know how to price that." @macroderek @MarketWatch

“If they allow the Cook firing, then basically every governor is an employee at will,” says LHMeyer’s @macroderek. Read more below. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

LHMeyer's @macroderek weighs in on Fed independence in the latest from @MarketWatch @grobb2000.

@macroderek weighs in on rising US food prices after Tuesday's CPI. @SPGlobal spglobal.com/market-intelli…

@macroderek joined @BloombergTV @markets this afternoon to discuss how investors are expecting policy to develop on the heels of the current economic picture, and said that he thinks Fed could deliver rate cuts sooner than markets expect.

The Fed politics of it all... LHMeyer's @macroderek weighs in on the latest. @AmerBanker

"The substance is less important than the fact that the Trump DoJ is doing this at all," says LHMeyer's @macroderek. @FT

The coming year will be pivotal for the Federal Reserve. LHMeyer's @macroderek shares some of his latest thinking on the central bank's independence, a new Fed Chair, and more. @AmerBanker americanbanker.com/news/the-comin…

With the choice ahead between holding and cutting more, the committee now has some room to maneuver—even as political pressure mounts—thanks to Powell’s deft handling and communication. What weighs on markets is if the next Fed chair can fill his shoes. @macroderek's full Op-Ed: