magellannh

633 posts

magellannh

@magellannh

I'm not particularly noteworthy, but I am a real person.

Katılım Aralık 2010

52 Takip Edilen18 Takipçiler

magellannh@magellannh·2d

@JaneAFlegal Another example is utility ignoring non-wires solutions to tx constraint and instead building new tx. This increases ratepayer costs much more than just ROE. Same dynamic is at work. Ratepayers get higher rates from unneeded buildout plus higher costs from supply chain crunch.

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magellannh@magellannh·2d

@JaneAFlegal Actual ROE costs to ratepayers are dwarfed by the much larger extra costs from overspending on unneeded infrastructure and from extra demand on already stressed supply lines. (eg utility doing unneeded substation upgrade to boost ROE worsens transformer supply crunch).

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Jane Flegal@JaneAFlegal·3d

Okay, to be clear i think that high ROE & the A-J/depreciation incentive structure are real. I do not think addressing them will meaningfully reduce rates, but more impotantly I don't think the solutions thjis diagnosis leads you to address the core issue. THREAD TO CLARIFY:

Travis Kavulla@TKavulla

So yeah, big utility profits derived from inefficient capitalization ~ bad for "affordability". It is *also* bad if you are a pro-growth enthusiast for the energy sector!

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magellannh@magellannh·23 Nis

@DoctorOsty @JesseJenkins One big thing is that at least until now Toyota made it really hard to get their very popular Rav4 and Prius PHEV models with long wait times and crazy mark ups. The 2026 models are promised to have much better availability, but only time will tell.

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Matt Ostrowitz@DoctorOsty·22 Nis

What I don't get is why PlugIn Hybrids aren't more popular. I love having the benefits of an electric vehicle without the anxiety of worrying about running out of battery or feeling like I have to plan extremely carefully based on available chargers for a long road trip. And yet, with the discontinuation of the Volvo S60 and 90 Recharges, there are precious few PHEV sedans available. Make it make sense.

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Jesse D. Jenkins@JesseJenkins·22 Nis

You wouldn't know it if you live in the USA or consume US media and politics, but the fight between EVs and ICEs is basically over. Internal combustion is on it's way out. First it'll look slow, then fast. Fleet turnover will lag sales. But ALL the growth globally is in EVs. If your company isn't competitive in building EVs and can only build internal combustion, you're going to be stuck serving an ever-smaller share of a shrinking global market over the next decade...

Assaad Razzouk@AssaadRazzouk

New IEA data: EV sales in emerging markets surge 80% in 2025 >India: EVs up 75% to record 2.3m EV units sold >Indonesia: 125% increase >Viet Nam: EVs hit staggering 40% share of new car sales >Thailand: EV share of new sales hit 21% >Latin America: Region saw 70% annual growth >Mexico: Sales tripled >Brazil: Sales up 40% >Ecuador and Uruguay: Experienced massive jumps of 240% and 140% The "EVs are only for rich countries and China" bullshit is officially over

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magellannh@magellannh·30 Mar

@xiaowang1984 @HalkingT As it stands, I think now all the LNG terminal costs go to gas ratepayers not electric ratepayers. While Mystic was open I think they could put some of the cost on electric for reliability, but now they can't I think. Obv. not a legal expert, but seems like a tough one.

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magellannh@magellannh·30 Mar

@xiaowang1984 @HalkingT I'm just not sure how it could get financed unless I'm misunderstanding the MA Supreme Court ruling that prohibits firm gas delivery contracts from getting put into electricity rates. That seems like a showstopper to me and I'm not sure how it gets unwound.

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magellannh retweetledi

Xiao Wang@xiaowang1984·29 Mar

That's cute. Now do 1bcf of pipeline.

IEEFA.org@ieefa_institute

The full capacity from two major New England wind projects could have cut costs by $2.3 million a day during the January winter storm that hit the region. The U.S. administration prevented this capacity from reaching the grid. Op-ed for @BulletinAtomic: hubs.li/Q0487CjC0

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magellannh@magellannh·30 Mar

@HalkingT @xiaowang1984 oilandenergyonline.com/articles/all/k…

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magellannh@magellannh·30 Mar

@HalkingT @xiaowang1984 I'm not sure about cost, but a similar project cancelled a decade ago was estimated to cost $3.3b in 2016 dollars. Big problem is that project depended on states forcing electric dx utilities to sign firm delivery contracts to finance, but MA Supreme Court said this is a no go.

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magellannh@magellannh·29 Mar

@xiaowang1984 Not the best bang for my buck though. NH ratepayers want you guys down in MA to sign more of those above market wind PPAs :-)

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Xiao Wang@xiaowang1984·29 Mar

@magellannh It's all about how it affects marginal clearing right so as long as the utilization avoids the cost that's the key. Roi will likely have the best bang for your buck out of all the options.

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magellannh@magellannh·28 Mar

@JosephSomsel @xiaowang1984 Ok. That's fair but also kind of crazy. I'd have thought such a lease would not be very competitive. Are many office leases in CA done that way? Done a handful of office leases in Northeast over the years & I've never encountered a case where we didn't have our own meter.

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Joseph Somsel@JosephSomsel·28 Mar

@magellannh @xiaowang1984 It was California, Dude, and leased office space. No choice. And nobody calls Westinghouse "cheapskate."

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Xiao Wang@xiaowang1984·27 Mar

Duke isn't planning on going California style with duck curves and retiring thermal right. So keeping enough capacity on is already a given. In this context solar has a valuable role as a fuel saver that undercuts expensive peaker hours and summertime reserve capacity. Let's not get crazy with the rhetoric here.

Amy O. Cooke@TheRightAOC

Malfeasance: Solar isn't dispatchable and MUST have backup generation. The NCUC plans to exclude solar's massive firming cost in resource planning. The result will be higher rates while the commission makes false claims that solar is a low-cost resource. johnlocke.org/solars-cost-sh…

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magellannh@magellannh·28 Mar

@JosephSomsel @xiaowang1984 Counterpoint - Sounds like you worked for a cheapskate outfit that didn't properly value employee well-being. How much as a % of payroll did they save by cheaping out with this rate plan?

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Joseph Somsel@JosephSomsel·28 Mar

One hot summer day in San Jose, I was sitting in my office designing fuel racks for a new nuclear power plant in Texas. The boss announced that since our building had the cheaper, curtailable electric plan, they would be shutting off the aircon and the water coolers after lunch. Turns out, the state's wind forecast was wrong and the windmills would be becalmed that day. Inadequate backup. Too bad nuclear engineers! You get to sweat because you're evil! I took that misery afternoon as a personal insult.

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magellannh@magellannh·28 Mar

@xiaowang1984 @patrickrooney @JesseJenkins Although I think some gas to hp conversions in southern states might pencil out if gas heat can still be backup for coldest days. Dual fuel HP setups are pretty common now I think. This would be more true if policy costs weren't upping rates in those states as Jesse says.

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Xiao Wang@xiaowang1984·28 Mar

@magellannh @patrickrooney @JesseJenkins Which is why the focus should be on converting oil and propane while minimizing the amount of distribution infrastructure that needs to be built. Which also implies encouraging some people to keep their oil and propane in addition to adding heat pumps

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Jesse D. Jenkins@JesseJenkins·28 Mar

I made a thing: jessejenkins.github.io/heat-pump-map/ By which I mean I told Claude to make a thing. The economics of heat pumps are very challenging in a country that has cheap gas and where policy makers load retail electricity rates with a whole bunch of policy-related costs (rooftop solar cross-subsidies; 'decoupling' policies that raise volumetric rates to compensate utilities for implementing efficiency programs; public benefits charges, etc.) and price network services volumetrically. If folks want electrification, affordable electricity is essential, and we need rate reforms that more accurately price electricity's real cost.

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magellannh@magellannh·28 Mar

@xiaowang1984 @patrickrooney @JesseJenkins Yes. As we've talked about before, I set up my tstat to switch to oil heat if oil is marginal generation source and HP COP is low due to extreme cold. At that point, HP is dirtier and more costly for system. Prob better if rates incentivized people like me to do this,

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magellannh@magellannh·28 Mar

@taitdl @JesseJenkins If you click through to Jesse's (cool) tool, you can see the inputs for each state. TN has crazy cheap gas at 3.6 cents vs at 5ish cents for most everyone else. Even w/ very low electricity cost it makes the math tough.

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Daniel Tait@taitdl·28 Mar

@JesseJenkins Interested in TN… Any indication why it is on an island despite cheaper power and relatively favorable climate?

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magellannh@magellannh·28 Mar

@patrickrooney @JesseJenkins Mostly true if cheap gas already piped in, but a different story if you're using oil or propane. Check out $/MBTU values for various sources in NH (Heat pump is $27 vs $49 for oil) energy.nh.gov/energy-informa…

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Patrick Rooney@patrickrooney·28 Mar

@JesseJenkins This makes it look as though heat pumps are fine in states where it's already warm. If you really, really need heat because you're in a northern state, you're out of luck.

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magellannh@magellannh·28 Mar

@JigarShahDC But the yankee thing cuts both ways. If there's a hint a new plant could raise rates even a bit, the plan will be dead on arrival. NH is on same grid as rest of New England but rates are 20-25% lower due to fewer built in policy costs vs rest of New England. We're cheapskates.

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magellannh@magellannh·28 Mar

@JigarShahDC Two things about NH make a new plant more feasible than it might seem at first. 1) The "live free or die" thing is pretty real. Prob less NIMBY vs nearby states. 2) We're yankees at heart and hate paying taxes. Seabrook tax rate is lower due to plant paying 30% of bill.

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magellannh@magellannh·27 Mar

@NH_Ancap @KellyAyotte NH folks should be cheering on those above market PPAs as long as it's other states' ratepayers that cover the excess costs.

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magellannh@magellannh·27 Mar

@NH_Ancap @KellyAyotte IMO, that's way too pessimistic. Just need a data center to sign a PPA and maybe some permitting help. Also, for the record the "windmill cult" doesn't really impose any costs on NH. In fact, each one they build adds to overall supply and lowers costs for NH ratepayers.

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Governor Kelly Ayotte@KellyAyotte·26 Mar

I've issued an Executive Order directing our Dept. of Energy to work with lawmakers and industry leaders to foster next-generation nuclear in New Hampshire. Granite Staters’ electric bills are way too high, and we need to expand our energy supply to bring down costs.

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Keşfet

@JaneAFlegal @DoctorOsty @JesseJenkins @xiaowang1984 @HalkingT @JosephSomsel @patrickrooney @elonmusk