HalkingTeds

383 posts

HalkingTeds

HalkingTeds

@HalkingT

Katılım Şubat 2020
352 Takip Edilen74 Takipçiler
HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@ShaleTier7 They are the opposite of Tourmaline and it’s not gonna matter cause they can grow production into a better market
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@CajunCowboy15 @NewsFinOil If you think Brent less shipping costs is a fraction of true value then you can do a lot more than complain about it on here. If you’re willing to put your money where your mouth is and you’re right you’ll be too rich to care
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Cajun Cowboy
Cajun Cowboy@CajunCowboy15·
US SPR Oil is getting released from salt caverns, sent directly to gulf coast export terminals, and shipped overseas for a fraction of its true value. What…are…we...doing???
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@StreetBomber @WAR527 Not with these crack spreads and likelihood they last this time. This is as if oil rips and you have to post collateral on your hedged production. They’ll see a huge working capital outflow and push as much into expenses to keep GAAP income low but US refiners are minting
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BSB 💣
BSB 💣@StreetBomber·
@WAR527 So refiners are about to get smoked?
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@bauhiniacapital What’s the timeline? LNG is bottleneck for gas and that ramp is foreordained given projects take 4 years from FID to commissioning. US adding 2/3 bcf/d per year for next 3 years at most. Crude is all based on drilling econs but could add 500-1MMBbl/d in 12 months with more rigs
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baufinanciaphaster 👹
baufinanciaphaster 👹@bauhiniacapital·
Has anyone calculated the extent to which the US can increase gas and crude exports to offset the reduced supply? I am sure someone has done the work. I just haven’t seen solid numbers backed by actual capacity.
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@junkbondinvest In all fairness when properly marked it’s a much smaller % of the portfolio
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junkbondinvestor
junkbondinvestor@junkbondinvest·
The private credit pitch to pensions: "It's the new fixed income." Texas CDRS took that to mean 29% of the entire portfolio.
junkbondinvestor tweet media
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marginofdanger
marginofdanger@marginofdanger·
That's not what's going on here. Mgmt needs to react to a dynamic market, and the stupid NASDAQ rules around touching the plant were inhibiting them. So they are strategically delisting and I assume will be getting closer to the plant. The risk isn't insider "stealing" it, it's making bad capital deployment decisions with the $57mm of cash.
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marginofdanger
marginofdanger@marginofdanger·
$MAPS is trading at net cash, generates positive EBITDA and its comp set (via $MSOS) is up 20% on rescheduling news. Still suffering from a technical of selling pressure due to delisting. Big margin of safety. cc: @ragingbullcap @ClarkSquareCap
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@EnergyCynic It’s actually frustrating imo that a big co is the only one seemingly doing the obvious thing and responding to seasonal price trends and volatility in tape while growing volumes long term rather than smoothing earnings and gas
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@MLPguy Maybe like telecom fiber capacity needs are overstated with efficiencies? Even data center build out can’t soak up the cash the tech co’s can churn. Seems gas is only ST option and somewhere in the US will allow them. Midstream mgmt teams will fumble it regardless like always
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Hinds Howard
Hinds Howard@MLPguy·
@HalkingT Maybe nothing, maybe tech companies run out of money or appetite to build data center, maybe local opposition to data centers, maybe new technology that reduces power center demand…I think it would be more certain if you had all the projects you need today to hit 2030 numbers
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Hinds Howard
Hinds Howard@MLPguy·
Never before have I heard so many analysts talking about how cheap things are on EBITDA 4 years from now…are we really that comfortable with midstream numbers in 2030? Maybe we are, I’m just asking questions here…
GIF
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@ShaleTier7 Even for a co with TOU’s inv depth shouldn’t you push spacing as far as you can until you overshoot, espec /w F&D costs a small % of revenue for WCSB? I guess if you’re playing a 30 year game finding optimal spacing is more relevant than capital efficiency in every single pad
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@EnergyCynic Hard to respect the mgmt as the best at what they do and think they’re actually a good steward of capital making long term, prudent investments in a resource with great medium and long term fundamentals, and also realize it is not that great a business vs other sectors
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EnergyCynic
EnergyCynic@EnergyCynic·
I’ve owned Tourmaline for 6 years and have always loved the company. But thinking if trimming my position hard. Can anyone talk me out of it? $TOU.TO
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@redbuckman There’s a lot of smaller docks that can ramp up if that becomes viable. Doubt it’s the dock capacity that’s the limiting factor at a certain point. Never had to max out all the new capacity before now. Wonder if it ends up getting a new VLCC export project FID’d
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Red
Red@redbuckman·
US Gulf Coast only has about 4-5mmbopd capacity for crude export volumes. We already average close to full capacity, I am curious how much above nameplate we can go. Quick and dirty from Claude, sometimes the bottleneck is actually pipe and not the terminal.
Red tweet media
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@toiletkingcap An embargo is not a blockade, but hey maybe Japan was entitled to US steel and oil no matter how many US allies they invaded?
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@MattG_PE Think high income elasticity is relatively low at $100 oil but demand response in SE Asia, Africa, Latham indicates that’s not true for low or middle income which matters on global balances
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Matt Gallagher
Matt Gallagher@MattG_PE·
🧵$100 oil will not cause demand destruction or a US Recession. The numbers prove it. 1/ From June 2011–June 2014, WTI averaged $96.16 per barrel. Global oil demand kept growing steadily: ~87.1 mb/d (2010) → 91.5 mb/d (2014).
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@EnergyCynic It’s not hard that ceding quasi-state actors’ rights to tax commerce within range of their armaments is a horrible idea, and would probably rank as the worst geopolitical consequence of any single US conflict
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EnergyCynic
EnergyCynic@EnergyCynic·
If Iran charges a toll, the entitled GCC countries can stop building wall cities in the desert and build a couple pipelines with their mounds of cash. No protesters blocking roads in the desert. This is not hard.
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@ReubenR80027912 As brilliant as antibiotics are, 1 reason blood letting is attractive has nothing to do with merits: it’s NEW. Rational evidence-based ideas are tired. These traditional ideas are novel & exciting
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Noah Dasanaike
Noah Dasanaike@dasanaike·
To study the question of occupational change under structural transformation, I digitize 354 million voter roll and census records (name, occupation, geography) from Australia (1903-1980), Canada (1871-1980), and New Zealand (1853-1981), spanning nearly their entire histories.
Noah Dasanaike tweet media
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@orrdavid Isnt painful as once but 1st order: 1) campaign itself expensive 2) US is importer of world goods that are affected 3) products are global so US consumers feel diesel, jet fuel and only insulated in nat gas 4) distributional effects with consumers and regions getting crushed
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
I'll reiterate that it was only asyemmtric *to the USA* before the shale revoluation. Today, if we blow up Iran's oil infrastructure, and they blow up a chunk of their neighbors, it won't really be the USA that feels the pain like 15 years ago. I'm starting to think this is the end game, and the USA would be right to do it, because that would be the end of the Iranian regime.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk

Iran Uses Asymmetric Warfare to Inflict Pain From a Weakened Position-WSJ

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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@mnolangray The $2mm was only one property. $46k taxes on the remaining implies $4-$5mm total.
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HalkingTeds
HalkingTeds@HalkingT·
@magellannh @xiaowang1984 I get that there’s a large water crossing but wild to see a $5-6b price tag for a 300 mile 30” pipe. With any sort of reasonable permitting and EIA it’d be 1/3 that. Most Permian pipes that size have been done for $4mm per mile
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magellannh
magellannh@magellannh·
@xiaowang1984 What's your guess on total cost & avg utilization for a new 1bcf new pipeline? I thought est. was $5-6b w/low average utilization aside from 10-20 days a year. The less ambitious uprate projects in the $300m range seems good, but new seems like a very heavy lift to justify.
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