ManuCap

My Substack, where I share my watchlist: manucap.substack.com

It's still early.

"You will lose. It will hurt the first fifty times. When you get used to losing, you will play each game with less emotion." Jorgenson, Eric. The Book of Elon: A Guide to Purpose and Success (p. 118). (Function). Kindle Edition.

Bought some $IDYA, $BNAI, $ALB. Very small positions for now...

@lonextrades Soros?? Did he really say that? 😅

Qullamaggie on His $100M Trading Mentors “I have learned a lot from Mark Minervini. I talk about it all the time. I learned a lot from Dan Zanger. Mark Minervini, William O'Neil, Nicholas Darvas, Stanley Druckenmiller, George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, Jesse Livermore. I picked up bits and pieces from all of these great traders. They pretty much do the same thing. They may do it a little bit differently but they pretty much do the same thing the same way. Pradeep too. Yeah David. I picked a lot up a lot from you too. I'm not sure what but I'm sure I picked up something.”

The market may need another week to settle and attempt a decent rally, but there are some leading themes to watch... Semis, data center infra and construction, optical and fiber optics, cooling, satellite... I'll be watching this week, but I think I won't be trading much... Oh and I'll be scanning for news related opportunities.

Alright guys... I've just finished writing 'How I Swing Trade'. It's been a ride... 🤠 I appreciate this market pullback, so I was able to focus. It's LONG (shorter than most trading books out there though), and I believe I cover EVERYTHING. 😅 80% of the content are charts, and I believe it's easy to follow. There's homework included, not just the theory. And LOTS and LOTS of examples. Now I want to edit it a bit, and hopefully put it out there for the world to see, next week or the following. This is the final structure (and if something's confusing or missing, I'll listen to your feedback and I will add / explain further). 1. Learning to Read Candlesticks Rallies, Pullbacks, Consolidations Directional candles: Strong candles up/down Tight ranges and pauses: Dojis and small candles Rejections I: Hammers (support) Rejections II: Shooting Stars Rejections III: 2, 3 or more candle combinations Putting it altogether - Let’s read some charts! 2. Stock Price Cycles The Wyckoff Cycle Stage 1: Accumulation / Basing Stage 2: Mark up / Uptrend Stage 3: Distribution / Top Stage 4: Mark down / Downtrend Examples 3. Bases: VCPs, Rounded Bottoms, Cup and Handles Volatility Trading Volatility Contraction The VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) Rounded Bottoms Cup & Handle Resistance levels in bases Base breakouts with a news event Why I trade mostly Stage 2 setups 4. Using Moving Averages How price interacts with the moving averages Why I use the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages Moving Average Reclaim and Respect The 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages alignment How high performing stocks move relative to the moving averages The weekly chart and the 50 day moving average 5. The Context of Setups What I pay attention to Fast vs slow stocks (1, 3 and 6 months performance) Linearity vs choppy price action Crossing the performance threshold - early vs late in Stage 2 Why do I trade high ADR stocks? 6. The Anatomy of Setups Learning to see swings in naked charts The Anatomy of Setups I: The move up (A, B and C Type Rallies) About Short A-Types within bigger setups Rallies that are too extended for a viable continuation without a longer ‘pause’ Picking the best stocks: High performance + A/B Type Rallies The volume in the previous rally The anatomy of Setups II: The pullback and the range building The anatomy of Setups III: The higher lows and the moving averages support The anatomy of Setups IV: The descending resistance (lower highs) and horizontal resistance The anatomy of Setups V: The tightness and potential breakout zone The real world: Rarely a perfect setup 7. Setup Variations The variations The variations I: The fast 10 day MA setup The variations II: The 10/20 day MA setup The variations III: The 50 day MA setup 8. Learning to Enter Trades The distance between the open and the 10 day MA The volume at the open Entry type I: The ORB Entry type II: The previous candle’s high overtaking Entry type III: The previous pivot high in the hourly overtaking Where to place your stoploss (risk is covered in the Risk Management section) 9. Gaps Gap setups Trade opportunities after a gap Volume and potential follow through The distance between the open and the 10 day MA, and volume When to enter a gap trade: the ORB and the setups in the 1 and 5 minute charts How I scan for news and report gaps 10. Trade Management and Exiting Positions When do I sell my positions? When do I raise my stop loss How to determine if a stock is extended 11. Learning to read the Weekly Chart The stock price cycle on the weekly chart Price action and setups on the weekly chart 12. Risk Management and Position Sizing Rule #1: Protect your money The risk-reward math and the outcome of trades Stoploss distance and the impact on my return What if I want to sell quickly into initial strength? What's the max drawdown that you can stomach? Position sizing Compounded account growth Why I trade high performers with high ADR: a more efficient use of my capital How to increase exposure and account risk How many Rs do you need to make to double my money every year? 13. Trading Themes How to identify Hot and Emerging themes Stock roles within a theme: The leaders, the followers and the laggards 14. Market Awareness Are we in a buying market? (The QQQ and the IWM) How many themes are hot? Exposure changes depending on the market Other important Indexes or assets I watch 15. How I scan for potential winners and how I select stocks My weekend scans Analyzing scan results How I select stocks Working with my Watchlists (A, B and C lists) 16. Building your own trading rules and journaling your trades Journaling Use a checklist Doing deep dives 17. Putting it all together BONUS: How I use AI to find themes FIND COMPANY THEMES FIND COMMON THEMES FOR A STOCK LIST (when you don’t have your own themes list yet) FIND COMMON THEMES USING MY OWN THEMES LIST BONUS: My best trades from 2025 -- I hope this work helps you guys learn faster. 🫡 Thank you so much guys for all your kind words!

@theproof @BioLayne So we've been eating wrong since we became humans?

More protein from plants. People won’t like it - but … data > feelings @BioLayne

Finally, the market is pulling back hard. And now, we watch for sectors setting up, and we wait. Opportunities await on the other side of the pullback.

I'm reading 'The Book of Elon' by @EricJorgenson, and it's interesting how many ideas Elon describes, also apply to the process of learning how to trade, and designing your own strategy. Great book so far. amazon.com/Book-Elon-Guid…

This could be an interesting read...

So anyway, what do you guys think I should do?

Bought some $LITE and $COHR...

and now $COHR of course :D

$LITE making an attempt...

$SOXL attempting a setup with the $QQQ in survival mode. There are some names across the Semis supply chain semi-strong (pun intended) or attempting to set up. Fiberoptics/optical too. Memory/storage. $COHR, $TER... I won't post my list today as there's nothing super interesting. It's another 'just watch' day. That said, I may attempt a very small pos in $SOXL and some specific semis if there's big volume. Otherwise, I take any breakout attempts as potential bull traps. Oh and data center related of course is holding nicely. From construction, to infra and operations. I'll post when I feel more sure. We're not there yet.

This was my only trade today... $WULF. I was watching $APGE but it seems like a no...

Silver at range lows. Now a hammer. This is where traders get punished. zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…

@Qullamaggie Welcome back 🫡

Holy candle!

I think he wants to have full control over the entire supply chain from silicon to space data centers. So growth can eventually be exponential without depending on external players. Looks like he wants a full Dyson's swarm of energy generation + inference (AI is probably going to be the biggest energy sucker for humanity). Backwards planning to the biggest AI system in the world.

Elon said building Terafab is required to meet Tesla and xAI's future chip demand, as he does not believe existing fabs can scale fast enough for what he and the other labs have planned. Sam Altman believed the same thing, which is why he wanted $7 trillion for Project Tigris.