Mauricio Carvalho

I derived 9 predictions from the Softwar framework and tested each against real world data: 5 confirmed. 1 partially realized. 3 still unfolding. All within three years of publication. Strategic reserves, sovereign mining, geopolitical competition for hash rate. These are the phenomena that no existing academic model accounts for. They're exactly what the power projection framework predicts. And the timing matters. We're less than 10 days from the 20 millionth Bitcoin being mined. The final million has begun. If the power projection thesis is correct, the gap between current valuation and strategic significance may never be this wide again.

@craziestpuma923 @Pontifex If you are a reader, start with The Faith Explained from Trese. If you are a Christian you Will end up the book catholic. Them the sacraments (eucharistic, confession and so on) will be a need for you.

I really am considering converting to the Roman Catholic church. The Protestant evangelicals in my United States of America are blood thirsty wolves, that have turned churches into tax free money making centers under the guise of being a charity…. I don’t know where to start, I guess I’ll attend my first mass, and see what happens…

I renew my invitation for everyone to join me for the Prayer Vigil for Peace, which we will celebrate in St. Peter’s Basilica on Saturday, April 11, at 6:00 PM Rome time. #PrayTogether #Peace

@levelsio Their ancestors, who jumped into wooden boats to nowhere, are probably shamed.

🇵🇹 If you have ever dealt with any Portuguese business (and I have with many in my 5 years here) you know why Portuguese in Portugal simply do not care about work, some foreigners find that refreshing, but it results in a country where you can't find anyone to do work because nobody wants to work And when they do work, the work is generally bad, like imagine stepping into a time machine back to 1970s bad, they also can't follow the spec you agreed upon beforehand, and then when it's 60% done they disappear and ghost you When we did home renovatiom, you hire ppl, they arrive late at 9am (you agreed 8am), they then drive away to get materials, come back 11am, do actual work for an hour, then at 12noon announce they go for lunch, come back around 2.30pm, walk around a bit, do some work, and then leave early at 4pm It's not just construction workers, it's almost every interaction you have here with a Portuguese business, the quality is just low, the service non-existent or customer-hostile, and it's not the language, I speak fluent Portuguese, I'm respectful and friendly which is why I never ever had this amount of issues elsewhere in the world And I know it's not just my experience, it's everyone I know here, even Portuguese complain about Portuguese! It's not completely their fault though, the hostile tax system for both people and businesses literally gives you an incentive to never ever scale your business beyond I believe around €150,000/year, because you end up in a completely different category and tax tier that decimates you with more taxes and more bookkeeping So every business tries to stay small, and doesn't want more customers (how many times have I walked into a Portuguese cafe or shop and the staff or owner *sighed* "not another customer") Add decades of socialist governments that hand out free money to 50% of the country (and even the right wing parties here are socialist btw, they have to be or they don't get votes) and you don't have any incentive to work left Why work when you don't need to work? The majority of the young smart Portuguese people with actual ambitions understandably move elsewhere, because if there's no incentive to grow a business, there's also no jobs for them, and the whole thing becomes a vicious cycle of increasing poverty Which is why I said Portuguese in Portugal at the beginning of this tweet, because Portuguese outside of Portugal are ambitious, want to work, want to improve their lives! Bringing in lots of foreigners like me by the government as a way to pump money into the system, we spend a lot and it pays for the welfare, healthcare and retirements of Portuguese now, but it's not a structural solution (and we also instantly became the scapegoat for the government's decades of mismanagement) It'd be relatively easy to fix this though if people in Portugal would put on their thinking hat: 💡 Make Portugal a great place to start and run a business, model yourself after Singapore but with extremely low taxes (maybe 5-10%) for companies/startups and make it easy for them to hire (and fire) people, the money you lose in taxes you will get back in increased economic activity over time (but it will hurt for a little bit) Because even the foreigners who move here and start businesses get caught up in the reverse incentive spiral of Portugal: Why even work?

@R38TAO Mude os incentivos e o comportamento segue. Lei universal. Até bactérias respondem por motivações.

Bessent divulga programa prometendo 10-30% da grana roubada para quem denunciar corrupção! Se houvesse no Brasil um programa desses não ia ter gente suficiente para processar tanta denúncia! Funcionários públicos, de bancos e empreiteiras terão uma grande oportunidade de APOSENTAR fazendo justiça.

Um diploma raiz do SENAI nunca decepciona 🤠

@Ratanaba_gov Apreciemos o narcisismo em sua versão clássica e pura

🤣VAI DE NOVO: pagou de doida e ganhou um processo de aniversário, só desejo uma dessa na vida dos senhores.

@pete_rizzo_ @grok link for the full talk

JUST IN: BILLIONAIRE MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST TOLD A ROOM FULL OF INSTITUTIONS THAT HE IS BUYING "ALL OF THE #BITCOIN BEING MINED IN THE WORLD" "WE BOUGHT 5.3 BTC FOR EVERY BTC CREATED BY A MINER" SAYLOR IS ON AN ABSOLUTE WARPATH 🔥

@KnowledgeArchiv I don’t know if you remember but they crucified him. One of them.

Netanyahu needs to read Napoleon’s thoughts on Jesus Christ

Instead of watching Netflix, watch Malcolm Gladwell on why success isn’t talent, it’s systems & timing.

In 2018, Stanford professor Matt Abrahams gave a masterclass on why most people fail to communicate well. He broke down: - The structure every message needs - Why audiences stop listening - The psychology of attention 15 lessons that'll make your communication unforgettable:

@LSaillans You probably going to like this analyzes of his framework: x.com/CernBasher/sta…

His book has been banned by the Us governement in 2023. A US Space Force officer wrote a thesis at MIT arguing Bitcoin is a weapons system. The Pentagon ordered him to take it down. The book is called SOFTWAR, written by Major Jason Lowery. I managed to get my hands on an original, pre-takedown version. Here are the ideas that apparently made the DoD nervous: → Bitcoin is not a financial technology, it's a weapons system. It is an electro-cyber power projection system, in the same category as armies, navies, and air forces, but for the domain of cyberspace. → The "Power Projection Theory" framework Every military branch exists to secure a domain by imposing severe physical costs on anyone who threatens it. Armies secure land, navies secure sea, air forces secure the sky. Bitcoin, Lowery argues, does this for cyberspace. It imposes real physical cost (energy/watts) on attackers, which no prior cybersecurity system could do. → Every military branch secures a domain by making attacks physically costly. Bitcoin does exactly this for cyberspace, imposing real energy costs on attackers for the first time in history. → Lowery draws on 5,000 years of history to argue that any system based purely on trust and rules eventually gets captured by bad actors. Physical cost is the only reliable constraint. → He calls this new paradigm "softwar": non-lethal, machine-vs-machine energy competition in cyberspace. Tesla predicted something like it in 1900. → His most striking claim: a soft, electro-cyber WW III war may have already started. World leaders do not recognise it because they are expecting the next war to look like the last one. Five concrete policy recommendations for the US government: 1. Stop letting economists set Bitcoin policy. 2. Treat Bitcoin as a cybersecurity asset first. 3. Consider strategic Bitcoin reserves. 4. Protect proof-of-work under the Second Amendment. 5. Recognise that proof-of-stake is a centralised fraud, not a viable alternative. Because the nations that figure this out first will have an asymmetric advantage over those that do not. The book was pulled in July 2023 by DoD. Physical copies now sell for over $300. @JasonPLowery

A powerful scene in the Odyssey happens when Odysseus finally returns to Ithaca after twenty years of war and wandering. You would expect the story to end with celebration, with the hero coming home, the family reunited, and order restored. Homer does something far stranger. Odysseus arrives disguised as a beggar, because Athena warns him that the palace has been taken over by more than a hundred suitors who have been living there for years, eating his food, drinking his wine, and pressuring his wife Penelope to marry one of them. They believe Odysseus is dead and in their minds the kingdom is already theirs. So the king of Ithaca walks through his own halls dressed in rags while the men stealing his house sit comfortably at his tables. They mock him, throw scraps at him, and one of them even strikes him, and Odysseus takes it. That is the remarkable part, because the same man who blinded the Cyclops and survived twenty years of disasters now stands quietly while strangers insult him in his own home. Homer tells us his heart burns inside his chest and that he wants to attack them immediately, yet he restrains himself and waits. Instead of striking, Odysseus studies the room carefully. He counts the men, watches their habits, and quietly observes which servants remain loyal and which have betrayed him. The hero of the Odyssey does something most people cannot do, which is delay revenge until the moment is right. Eventually Penelope announces a contest and brings out Odysseus’ great bow, declaring that she will marry the man who can string it and shoot an arrow through twelve axe heads lined up in a row. One by one the suitors try and fail, because none of them can even bend the bow. Then the beggar asks for a turn. The suitors laugh at first, but the bow is eventually handed to him. Odysseus takes it in his hands and strings it effortlessly. Homer says the sound of the bowstring tightening rings through the hall like the note of a swallow. Then he places an arrow on the string and sends it cleanly through all twelve axe heads. In that moment the beggar disappears. Odysseus turns the bow toward the suitors and reveals who he is. What follows is one of the most brutal scenes in Greek literature. The doors are sealed and the suitors realize too late that they are trapped inside the hall. Odysseus, his son Telemachus, and two loyal servants begin killing them one by one. There is no escape, no mercy, and no negotiation. The men who spent years consuming another man’s house die inside it. It is a violent ending, but Homer wants you to understand something important. The real danger to Odysseus was never just the monsters and storms on the long journey home. It was the possibility that someone else might take his place while he was gone. When Odysseus finally returns, he reminds everyone in Ithaca of a simple truth: a man’s home is not truly his unless he is willing to fight for it.

@ducavendish @FIGHTZINCLUB @grok what YT video of Jiang this audio comes from?

Interessante. Muitas verdades sendo ditas sobre riqueza. Vale salvar para escutar mais tarde.

@CoinDesk For context: El Salvador holds 6,100 BTC. Strategy holds 121x more. A private company is accumulating Bitcoin at sovereign-nation scale. And almost no one is paying attention. #BitcoinAccumulation #DigitalGold #Crypto

The numbers (SEC filings via @CoinDesk): • Last week: 17,994 BTC ($1.28B at $70,946/BTC) • Week before: 3,015 BTC ($204.1M) • Monday alone: est. 1,420 BTC (record STRC volume in 2026) Total holdings: 738,731 BTC. $56B invested. #BTC #STRC #SaylorBuyingBitcoin

The biggest Bitcoin purchase of 2026 happened last week. Not a government. Not a fund. It was Strategy. 21,000 BTC in 10 days. $1.5 billion. While the market was arguing about price. #bitcoin #crypto #strategy

1 - Propósito: festar, jatinho, putaria e dorgas 2 - Inovação: Fazer diferente do que já existe no mercado. Colocar o produto de uma "maneira diferente" (cbd 130%). 3 - Inovação financeira, sempre com um bom plano de execução 4 - Tome riscos. Sempre. 5 - O mais importante. Ser resiliente, ir até o final. Tem que saber apanhar e levantar. Aqui é selva. 6 - Networking.. com quem vc ta conectado? Ou seja, tu tem costas quente? AHUAHUAHUAH 7 - E para dormir de noite: impacto social. Sempre. Mudar a vida das pessoas (passou até apt no nome da "amiga" lol)

Silêncio, estou estudando

@paulo_caelum Estou usando openclaw para gerir obsidian. Tem funcionado bem.

O que me despertou para voltar a programar não foi o Claude, o Codex... 𝐟𝐨𝐢 𝐨 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐂𝐥𝐚𝐰. Mas não pela ideia de ter um assistente pessoal e sim como 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧. Ou como 𝐙𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐤𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐧. O bombardeamento de informações, excesso de conteúdo, de reuniões e de notas tem sido um grande desafio para mim. Tudo dispara threads em paralelo no nosso cérebro, fragmentando a atenção. Preciso encontrar uma forma de gerir todo esse conhecimento, links, vídeos e anotações. Lembro de quando lia livros de literatura clássica. Alguns dos grandes autores ditavam o que seria escrito, o que estava sendo pensado. Dostoiévski fazia isso (sua segunda esposa foi sua estenógrafa!), assim como outros autores de volumes longos escreviam mapas que pareceriam com os nossos 𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐩𝐬. Tive a oportunidade de ver alguns no museu de Dostoiévski em São Petersburgo. Mecanismos de 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐊𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐥𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 realmente não são novos. Desde os wikis pessoais e até o 𝐁𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐢 do 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐨𝐰𝐥𝐞𝐫 (apesar de hoje ser mais para blog). Vimos as ondas de tentativas, não? Desde o Delicious e o Pocket, guardando links e recortes, até o Trello e Evernote para depois Notion e Obsidian. Afinal: onde eu rabisco, anoto, resumo, guardo e busco? Testei diversas dessas ferramentas e vi que nenhuma era exatamente o que eu tinha de workflow em mente. Fiz então o vibecoding da minha própria solução. Um Personal Knowledge Management que, dado tudo que eu registrei, anotei e refleti, no endpoint mais distante, me ajuda a postar no meu blog. Sim, existem produtos, como o 𝐦𝐞𝐦.𝐚𝐢, que fazem algo similar. Mas no mundo do 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞, é mais interessante eu ter algo extremamente customizado às minhas necessidades. E quais são elas? - Registrar audios, textos, imagens e ideias de forma imutável - Classificar esses dados em labels - Gerar conceitos: nós do Knowledge Base (KB) - Considerar usar um KB para criar ou appendar um draft do blog É um software específico, deployado no 𝐟𝐥𝐲.𝐢𝐨 para ficar escutando o bot do Telegram via um simples webhook e o BotFather. Ele chama Whisper via OpenAI e Anthropic (Sonnet) para classificar os textos e sintetizar, sempre respeitando o que eu falei, para não inventar palavras. Com esse mini sistema eu consigo gravar áudios, inclusive fora de ordem, em dias diferentes. O 𝑗𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 é o single source of truth com a transcrição direta. A partir desse journaling, conceitos são gerados (nós da Knowledge Base) e classificados. O journaling também pode enriquecer um draft do blog, concatenando a transcrição selecionada de um Concept caso ele seja assim classificado. Há uma série de outros detalhes, como o classificador receber os concepts e drafts atuais para considerá-los candidatos, assim como um glossário vai sendo montado para que o Whisper possa trabalhar melhor com termos e siglas que eu uso muito. Eu poderia fazer algo assim via OpenClaw? Imagino que sim. Duvido que o resultado pudesse se manter dentro de uma estrutura esperada. Mini agentes para casos específicos devem funcionar melhor que um faz-tudo. Ao menos por enquanto. Depois, com esses drafts, eu mesmo lapido os artigos, pois há um excesso de repetição, lacunas e também as ideias nunca se encaixam bem. Eu poderia tentar deixar essa concatenação de ideias e reestruturação do texto para a máquina: pedir para a LLM pegar esse monte de nota confusa e criar um artigo pronto para a publicação. Não farei. A LLM, independente do quão "humanizada" fosse, mudaria muita informação e criaria conteúdo da própria "cabeça", dando aquele ar de 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝 que vemos atualmente, onde tudo parece qualquer coisa. Também perderia a autenticidade de forma perceptível. E, para você ter uma ideia, esse post eu escrevi através de diversos fragmentos e audios que gravei no decorrer de dias, ordenados de uma forma bem diferente. Diminuiu muito o tempo do meu trabalho? Não. Estou há horas nesse rascunho. Mas agora não perco mais ideias e textos que gostaria de estudar ou de compartilhar. Post completo no proximo tweet!

O ouro levou mais de 3.000 anos para ir de ornamento cerimonial a moeda cunhada na Lídia. O Bitcoin fez o mesmo caminho em 16 anos. De collectible cypherpunk a reserva estratégica dos EUA. 23 nações. 194 empresas públicas. 365 milhões de holders. Adoção corporativa 2.5x em 2025. Stock-to-flow já superior ao do ouro. Publiquei a versão final do meu paper na SSRN.

@jpmayall Também publiquei um pre-print na semana passada avaliando BTC como ferramenta de projeção de poder. Beyond Money, Hedge, and Energy: Evaluating Bitcoin as Power Projection Technology techrxiv.org/users/1031386/… Vou ler o seu JP e te mando feedbacks.

Depois de feedbacks do Mises Institute UK, colegas do Instituto Rothbard Brasil, e colegas do mercado, fiz uma revisão definitiva no paper. O que mudou: - Novo debate acadêmico: seção dedicada ao Luther vs. Pickering e à interpretação de Davidson e Block sobre o teorema da regressão; - Fundamentos de teoria dos jogos: PoW como equilíbrio de Nash, emergência monetária como jogo de coordenação, Bitcoin como ponto focal de Schelling; - Dados empíricos atualizados até 2026: curva S de adoção, volatilidade em queda, stock-to-flow pós halving 2024; - Seção nova sobre validação institucional: ETFs spot, Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, sovereign wealth funds; - 5 gráficos e 4 tabelas comparativas originais. De 10 páginas e 7 seções para 14 páginas e 13 seções. Referências expandidas de 10 para 22 fontes. Paper completo: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Críticas são bem-vindas, especialmente de quem acha que o Bitcoin viola o teorema da regressão.

@frauchess95 @PrimeiroFront No tempo do meu avô, ele e o .38 já era suficientes para levar a mensagem.

🔴ÚLTIMA HORA: Mãe viraliza nas redes sociais após cantar música para a filha que ensina ela a se prevenir contra ped0f1l0s. "Que lindo, isso precisa ser cantado nas escolas", diz internauta.