.......

even if the offramp headline is still just rumor, it at least suggests the admin is finally converging on the only two real paths left: withdrawal or economic catastrophe. today's bid in risk feels like markets trying to signal that withdrawal is the only viable way forward. There is some irony in that. A market bounce, which is really just conditional optimism around deescalation, can actually reduce the pressure on an admin that is obviously highly sensitive to daily market marks. That could make things worse if they fail to act quickly enough or fail to understand what price is actually signaling If the admin gets through the long weekend without making more decisions towards withdrawal, I would expect most of this move to reverse. I also think people are wrong to frame withdrawal as some massive humiliation that automatically hands the strait to Iran. If anything, this war is a reminder that it does not take much sophistication to disrupt the world’s shipping lanes, and that in an era of modern warfare technology, diplomacy is often more effective than domination and violence. Hopefully Americans take the right lesson from this and stop trying to return to a nostalgic vision of power that is incompatible with present realities

The big flip happening now. Now looking for BTC to outperform gold into year end. Just sold some gold futures and bought some BTCs.

When ppl claim this I always wonder how they think it happens, or have unrealistic expectations on how much $1bn actually is. I joined crypto with $200. If I held my initial bitcoin since then and never traded, I would have ~$300k. If, instead, from that moment I sold the top and bought the bottom of every crypto cycle on Bitcoin, and never paid any taxes, I would have ~$6m USD. If I put my entire net worth into the Ethereum ICO and never touched it, today I would have ~$150m pre-tax. While it was definitely possible to have made >$1bn with the opportunities in the market, these versions of reality would also require me to make no mistakes, and have no need to spend $ in real life, or take excessive risk via leverage. In reality, I grew up in a working class family. I didn’t have a trust fund and I had to pay off my student loan myself. I had a job at Tescos while at high school. After university, I needed to pay rent and fund cost of living and eventually buy a place to live. I worked at startups for relatively little $ salary, and while a couple have done okay, they still are illiquid and worth nothing until some exit. Perhaps if I erase a couple of dumb mistakes and drawdowns, or if I had a lil more grind, then my answer would be different today. But it is easy to say this with perfect hindsight vision. It’s easy to see where you could have optimised better, and decisions you made look dumb when the past makes things so obvious. The truth is I have always optimised for enjoying my life and not going to 0. I never felt like I had a safety net, so it was never possible for me to do anything in any other way. I would probably have less money if I had tried to add more risk or chased $ harder, because being all-in with your entire livelihood is a mental battle and I feel I only win that battle when the stakes are lower. In writing this, maybe I do understand why CT folks believe this, because modern CT sees crypto as a late-stage lottery ticket farm, where the optimal strategy is to 5x leverage up your portfolio in a hope of catching a good 20% move and then leaving. Or, literally going all-in on the next coin they heard Ansem is buying. So perhaps to them, looking back at the charts, of course that’s what successful folks did. In reality, I use leverage close to never (and typically to reduce risk rather than add risk — have used it to add risk maybe 3 times in the last 5 years, and maybe 15 times ever). I never go all-in on anything, have only ever done that on BTC and ETH before in the last decade. When I buy other things, I limit risk to tiny amounts, because I treat it as a 0 until proven otherwise (so, always <1% liquid portfolio). Liquid portfolio is also a smaller % of overall portfolio to future-proof against my own fuckups. Obviously I made a lot of money, I have been here 12 years! CT doesn’t want to hear about “getting rich in a decade” though. I am happy with where I am and have never really cared or optimised for maximising $ earnings, but instead having a nice life that lets me enjoy the game we play together.

worst performing pairs

10/10 bid 11/05 sell

$BMNR ranking 6th in $ trading volume today ahead of AMZN, META and MSFT

Looks promising

The CIA was created in 1947 Israel was founded in 1948 Mossad came in 1949 Pumpfun got invented in 2024

$ENA Fundamentals are looking v strong here alongside px at htf range lows. In my view, this one performs v well through q3/q4. > Big beneficiary from the new US pro crypto legislation coming out in H2 > $ENA resides at the core of three interwoven narratives that I believe will dominate mindshare in the crypto market for the coming months: Defi, Stablecoins, RWA > Catalyst 1 (Q3): launch of Converge. A new RWA blockchain designed to integrate TradFi + DeFi by facilitating tokenized RWAs & stablecoin-based transactions. The chain will be backed by Ethena + Securitize’s ~$10 bn in assets. $ENA will be the sole central token used in the Converge eco, enhancing token utility > Catalyst 2 (Q3): fee switch activation. Already approved, in the final stages of implementation. Risk Committee recently stated that Ethena is in a strong position to begin directing a portion of protocol revenue to sENA holders. Ethena generated c$350m in fees for the 12 months ending June 2025 > Direct beneficiary of expected cuts in US interest rates over H2. Unlike USDT or USDC, which rely on Treasury yields, USDe’s yield comes from delta-neutral strategies. Lower interest rates will reduce competitors’ yields but boost Ethena’s yields (through increased funding rates in crypto derivative markets) > Im bullish on $ETH for H2, particularly given clear emergence of the treasury narrative - Ethena is a tier 1 beta play Addressing ongoing unlocks: 1. Now linear flat monthly unlocks over H2 2025 - no increases in number of tokens/month or cliff events 2. Significant token utility enhancements coming soon w above mentioned catalysts 3. Circulating supply now stands at 43% 4. Last private sale round ($100m) was at $0.40c in Dec 2024 5. Tokens w unlocks can still perform well - you just need to time your positioning End.

The upcoming bitcoin breakout will be explosive. The market is waiting for July 9th and clarity around tariffs to then move higher. Trump's tax bill and bitcoin treasuries going into third gear will soon add fuel to the fire. And Powell's replacement in 2026 (bullish short term, bearish long term) will be the icing in the cake.

Iran: Weeks away from having nuclear weapons since 1995

This location continues to experience high traffic as of 8:45pm ET

I'm old enough to have been witness to a number of large bear/bull cycles. I can honestly say I've never seen anything like this. On one hand every metric I track is screaming. All either point to this being the 2nd largest or largest bubble ever in US history. On top of that you have a 2 year yield inversion that will likely deliver us the worst bear market since the great depression, and likely within the next 12 months. At the same time, a number of markets have built out absolute "send-it" structures. Now, these very well could fail and confirm that we started a multi-year bear market months ago. But if this doesn't happen and these patterns play out, world equities will be pushing well past nosebleed levels just on the heels of a massive economic recession/depression. Being the trader that I am, I can't help but take the trades as they present themselves on the charts. That being said, I think it's a very dangerous game, and will get exponentially more dangerous as equities push new bubble peaks and the clocks ticks towards the bond market reckoning. glhf

Circle equity trades at $16b on the NYSE. Impressive, given that Circle holds less than $500m in tangible equity and had $65m in net income in Q1 2025.

@0xBiZzy anything I hold = fundamentally established anything other people hold, that I don't hold = not fundamentally established

SEC says “not so fast” haha

Betting market agrees #polymarket

A $400 million notional block of BTC puts was bought today on Deribit, costing 6.7M$ in premium, facilitated by @tradeparadigm One of the largest block trades I've seen

@lookonchain This is literally Alameda Research renamed. They’re doing the same second leg of bull market that we saw in 2021. Retar Dio.