Dgmcmg

@amitisinvesting What are your latest thoughts on $grab?

$GRAB "Peter, we keep hearing rumors about $GRAB and $GOTO merging. Are you guys dating?" CFO can't say no. Company didn't buyback a single share in Q1. $6B in cash, $19B market cap. Not sure if this deal happens but it would change the entire landscape within Southeast Asia, a market that has the highest GDP growth in the world apart from India.

@jam_croissant @ZeeContrarian1 Not saying you’re wrong but any sources on them supplying weapons in real time?

@ZeeContrarian1 This is a proxy war… Question is when do Russia + China run out of ballistic weapons… back is underpriced.

Since the start of the Iran war at the end of February, WTI spot is up 68% to $113 while the Dec contract is up only 14% to $72. This tells you everything. The front month is real physical scarcity + panic + speculation, moving 10–15% on headlines, while the back months reflect calmer expectations of how this resolves. This is exactly why the S&P is only down ~4%. It would make sense for this war to start unwinding in April as Iran runs low on ballistic missiles and Trump runs out of patience.

@Ksidiii @Quercus45 @Ksidiii where can we find track record?

@Ksidiii @Quercus45 Where can we see your audited track record?

My experience so far on this platform is that there is a clear negative correlation between the number of posts and actual performance. @Ksidiii being the main (and perhaps only?) exception.

@duncetancapital Come on bro. I loaded puts and they are gonna expire worthless.

@duncetancapital What time are you releasing?

@IndraStocks Why did margin come in lower than Q4 2024? Seasonality argument goes away

Bought some more $CVNA at $300 AH. Already added a nice 1% to 2026 perf! Basic idea being that sequentially units will be higher by ~20-25% thus higher margin/cost leveraging from seasonality. YoY growth rate also looks like it will accelerate slightly from Q4.

@RealMattMoney @JamesAsh97 Then why buy now?

@JamesAsh97 I anticipate winter will take some time, likely won't see continued momentum until 2H2027

Retail is coming back

@_kablaa @GothamResearch Do ABS investors not conduct any diligence on the pool of assets like looking through the individual loans and asking why >720 fico scores would take a >15% APR? Would they not care about the lack of income verification?

Just published my forensic short thesis on $CVNA: "Carvana – Subprime Auto in Prime Clothing" Stated-income loans everywhere, FICO illusion, LTVs exploding to 92% (36% underwater), extensions hiding delinquencies. Securitization flywheel at risk. Echoes some @GothamResearch concerns? Read: abeliananalysis.com/posts/carvana-…

@RealNickMugalli Their finance $ per unit is $2k higher than $KMX, not 1k. Explain why $CVNA earns this extra $.

Last week, a short report came out against $CVNA taking it down more than 20% on that day—while Carvana is a company that we have zero exposure to but it was an interesting ready but so easily to refute. We debunked the majority of a short report’s findings which we assessed fell “short” on service income calculations and the interpretation of typical Buy-Here-Pay-Here (BHPH) financials. A lingering investor concern involves snapshots allegedly showing DriveTime’s subsidiary, Bridgecrest, as a lienholder for <0.01% of outstanding $CVNA loans, despite Carvana’s long standing position as the sole originator on its platform since 2016. In this report, we detail our methodology to refute these claims. Using independent verification and corroboration from data science firm System2, we rely exclusively on public data to disprove the short thesis. First, running the short report’s primary VIN through the Florida DMV portal—the gold standard for title data—explicitly identifies $CVNA as the lienholder with zero mention of Bridgecrest. We repeated this across multiple state DMVs with identical results. The discrepancy likely stems from the author’s use of generic VIN decoders, which often conflate lienholders with "authorized agents" or servicers. Our own decoder analysis confirms $CVNA as the actual lienholder for every vehicle cited. Furthermore, 30 of the 34 VINs failed to match the states listed in the BLAST filings, and System2’s direct DMV inquiries confirmed $CVNA’s exclusive lienholder status. While the short report found comfort in matching prices between BLAST filings and $CVNA listings, basic probability suggests that with 50,000 monthly combined sales across limited make/model/price permutations, such overlaps are statistically inevitable coincidences rather than evidence of commingling. Beyond this specific rebuttal, we believe $CVNA’s fundamentals remain misunderstood for three reasons—1) Economics are not inflated—unit-level comparisons with CarMax show $CVNA’s vertically integrated model and 85% loan penetration justify its ~$1K higher finance GPU. In fact, KMX’s pivot toward full-spectrum financing essentially vindicates $CVNA’s strategy. 2) Auto loan economics—driven by excess spread and Net Loss assumptions—are standard across the industry. While $CVNA is not immune to recessionary margin compression, its Gain on Sale history demonstrates resilience. 3) BHPH accounting naturally produces negative operating cash flow during growth phases as originations outpace collections; recent earnings pressure is a cyclical, industry-wide phenomenon tied to 2022/2023 loan vintages, not a company-specific failure. Regarding the short report’s VIN matching, the process is inherently subjective, as VINs are not disclosed in ABS metrics. We demonstrated that similar VIN characters and prices can be found on CarMax or CarGurus for entirely different vehicles, proving the "matches" are likely phantom. Our audit with System2 eliminated 88% of the author's pairs through state-mismatching alone, leaving only one possible match representing a negligible 0.0003% of outstanding loans. Critically, DMV records show Bridgecrest listed without a date—indicating a servicer role—whereas $CVNA entries include specific lien dates, confirming their status as the true originator

@IndraStocks nytimes.com/1990/10/31/bus…

I get that I'm a young fella, social norms were different back in the day, and corresponding with Epstein doesn't mean you were doing illegal things But I feel like I'd have a bit more aversion to shooting the shit with a convicted pedophile?

@IndraStocks So many great companies out there but sure used car sales is the next big innovation.

$KMX currently sells about 10% more cars than $CVNA thus far in 2026. KMX is shrinking by 5-10% CVNA is growing by 40-50% $CVNA will sell more cars than $KMX in 2026 by quite a bit

@johnstaff @Vibeship1 @GothamResearch So they increase purchase price which in turn increases their financing operation. And they do this to the riskiest borrowers in the market?

@mcdoug93 @Vibeship1 @GothamResearch Only game in town for subprime borrowers who accept overloaded deals in exchange for any financing at all.

No fico was sub .60% avg each ABS pool. Now > 3.3%. If you MUST triple double cross pledge/collateralize auto loans to prop up scheme then you'd need to $CVNA: (@GothamResearch)

@RandolphDuke7 Where does the $2,765 for 2024 finance income come from?

@mcdoug93 Bulls would say they source better than KMX. Without a doubt, though, finance income drives this company.

These Drivetime numbers are insane.

@RandolphDuke7 So not only are they growing faster than $KMX and get better customers. Have yet to hear someone explain how they can do this.

@TeaBagCapital @RandolphDuke7 What was DTs retail gross profit? Given ownership is same between the two companies one would think DT could also employ $CVNA strategy. Or maybe they realize $CVNA stock gain would more than offset DT losses used to help prop up $CVNA.

@mcdoug93 @RandolphDuke7 DriveTime's GP margin is too low. Is DT buying cars from $CVNA at above market prices?

@RandolphDuke7 Nice work on other sales but retail vehicle gross profit seems off too. How does $CVNA command ~14% retail gross profit while $KMX earnings ~8.6% in 2024? What explains that difference?

Gain on sale + commissions from Drivetime = 84% of 2024 Other Sales and Revenues for CVNA.

@IndraStocks @IndraStocks why can $CVNA sell cars at ~500bps better retail gross margin than $kmx?

The rest of this piece of shit is quibbling about something being $9m or $10m on different balance sheets and I honestly just do not care which way a company wants to calculate fair value of a service contract. At the end of day if $CVNA is going to be a shitty investment and good short, it would require them to not be by far the best operated automotive dealer i the country. Thankfully they are, so they generate best in class margins on everything and will continue to insatiably grow despite the droning on the incompetent. @GothamResearch you wasted my time and should feel ashamed for being incompetent or maliciously misleading, or both. Thanks everyone else for reading if you made it this far!

Thread covering the @GothamResearch report on $CVNA: 1. To start, I do not trust short reports where the crux of the thesis is disingenuous rhetoric and not meaningful analysis. "We believe the two largest drivers of CVNA earnings -related party income and Gain on Loan sales - are larger, and more dependent on DriveTime & the Garcia ecosystem, than previously disclosed." - GCR This misrepresentation is a common theme in short reports covering CVNA. At the end of the day, they sell cars. While related party income and Gain on Loan sales are a nice boon, they are not the primary driver of the company. Using 2024 as an example we can see that by far the biggest driver of CVNA results is their best in class retail gross profit. Second is of course financing, which is split somewhere around 50/50 between prime and subprime. Related party income is a minor component. Gotham additionally fails to mention this component is almost entirely vehicle service contracts. Carvana does not have retail repair shops, so they utilize an offering from a related party at healthy margins to both. Zeroing it would not be material impact longer term.

@RealMattMoney The number of $rklb shares you own. Remind us how much that is again?

What do you consider generational wealth?