Brian McMahon

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Brian McMahon

Brian McMahon

@mcmahonb

Options Trading / Trading Model DevOps / Model Risk Controls LSU alum + NYU Law / UNO / ETH Zurich. Football / Baseball / Boxing. New Orleans roots. Catholic.

New York, NY Katılım Ağustos 2011
466 Takip Edilen494 Takipçiler
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Brian McMahon
Brian McMahon@mcmahonb·
"There is no worse heresy than that the office sanctifies the holder of it." -- Lord Acton, English Catholic historian, 4/5/1887
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JH
JH@CRUDEOIL231·
Right, the clock is ticking for the Chinese teapots and Iran, but Trump is the one on a real deadline. Once Iran realizes time is on their side, the playbook is simple: just stall. That's the whole game. They know that down the road, Trump will be on his knees like a dog, ready to give them whatever the hell they want. The strategy right now is relying on time to compel Trump to accept the very things he currently refuses to entertain. Every single tick of the clock works to their advantage. They will push Trump to the brink, running him out of time until he completely folds to Iran's ridiculous conditions. Trump is frantically chasing a negotiation, but Iran is playing hard to get and running out the clock. Why rush when waiting guarantees them a massive jackpot later? We all remember Trump’s absolute trashing of Obama over the JCPOA, don’t we? Man, watching him eat his own words down the road is going to be pure comedy. We’ve reached a crossroads. Either strip down and do a striptease for your master or summon the courage to fight back. It's time to decide. I can understand where the patriots are coming from, but the US is losing this war. That is an undeniable fact. #oott #iran
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HFI Research
HFI Research@HFI_Research·
I think my favorite moment of Operation Jawbone so far is when in March, Chris Wright said that naval escorts were happening. And WTI went below $80. Second favorite was in mid-April when they said, the Strait was open and all the tankers trying to leave had to U-turn. Maybe those tankers trying to leave should’ve had better insurance.
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Shadow of Ezra
Shadow of Ezra@ShadowofEzra·
Elon Musk’s “baby mama,” Ashley St. Clair, says that almost every MAGA influencer on social media is being paid by foreign countries such as Israel, Russia, and Qatar. She says nothing about them is organic and that everything is guided by a carefully constructed script behind the scenes. “There’s Qatari money flowing in and out.”
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Ministry now officially confirms that no Iranian nuclear commitments and uranium handover exist or will exist in any draft agreement with the US, calling all reports that claim otherwise a "pure lie," making further talks pointless due to the US insistence on this issue. Based on that issue, the statement declares "we are not signing any agreement with the US" and "no one can claim we are close to reaching an agreement." Iran separately stated to Tasnim they are now on the verge of "cancelling" the negotiations completely.
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Brian McMahon
Brian McMahon@mcmahonb·
@stockdatamarket Are we to believe that the Axios / Pakistani / Al Arabiya Resistance will be successful in suppressing prices in the global oil futures market until near the end of July?
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Data Driven Stocks
Data Driven Stocks@stockdatamarket·
Oil landed ideally where it should land (red thin arrow, watch out !)
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Amena Bakr
Amena Bakr@Amena__Bakr·
The cycle of headlines impacting prices continues. Oil drops below 100 when nothing really changed on the supply side. #OOTT
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Brian McMahon
Brian McMahon@mcmahonb·
@jason_kint It doesn't matter. Everyone who cares, already knows. Everyone who doesn't know, wouldn't care even if they did know.
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Jason Kint
Jason Kint@jason_kint·
NYT out with a jaw dropping investigative report on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 60 Minutes reported last Sunday on some of this, too. The NYT report is a must-read, the 60 Minutes report should then be watched. 1/3
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العميد إبراهيم ذو الفقاري
إننا نجدد التأكيد على أن مضيق هرمز سيبقى تحت الإدارة والسيادة الإيرانية الكاملة، حتى في حال التوصل إلى أي اتفاق مستقبلي. وتشدد الجمهورية الإسلامية على أن صلاحيات تحديد مسارات العبور، والتوقيت، وإصدار التراخيص البحرية هي حق سيادي مطلق بيد طهران حصراً.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's claim that Hormuz "will be opened" as part of a "largely negotiated" agreement he just posted on Truth Social, saying Trump's claim is "far from the truth" and that Hormuz "will remain under Iranian management" with Iran retaining exclusive permanent authority over route, timing, method, and permits, per Fars. Iran also confirms the nuclear file has not been discussed and that American officials themselves have told Iran in multiple messages that "Trump's tweets are primarily for domestic American propaganda and media consumption" and "should be disregarded." The "largely negotiated" deal claim therefore has no basis.
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Sharmine Narwani
Sharmine Narwani@snarwani·
Iran's Fars New channel: "If the US does not show flexibility, the negotiation will fail." 🔹 A knowledgeable source close to the negotiation team: Although the Americans have retreated from their initial approaches and accepted many of Iran's positions, there are still 3 serious points of disagreement that, if not resolved, the negotiation will not take place. 🔸First: The nuclear issue Iran has announced that it will not enter negotiations on the nuclear issue in this round. Only if the other side implements trust-building conditions will the nuclear issues be discussed in the next round. 🔸Second: Blocked funds The blocked funds must be transferred; the second and fundamental condition for Iran to enter negotiations is that Iran's blocked funds are first transferred and released. Without this happening, we will not enter negotiations at all. 🔸Third: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz Another disagreement is over the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The US insists that the strait must be fully restored to previous conditions, but Iran says it only commits to returning the number of ships to the previous status. This means that Iran, with its own model, determines the number of ships allowed to pass and only permits as many as it accepts. This means that ships must pass under Iran's management and exactly through the route Iran specifies.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: Iran's Ghalibaf fully rejects Pakistani Army Chief claims of a "final understanding" toward an agreement and a "60-day ceasefire extension," telling him directly "Iran will not compromise on the rights of the nation in any maximalist US agreement," with the US being "not an honest party." The entire Pakistani delegation and Army Chief have left Tehran without any agreement, as the IRGC says it is now ready for a "decisive confrontation" with the US this weekend. An informed source to Tasnim also denied today's Al Arabiya report claiming Iran proposed a 10-year enrichment suspension and wants to discuss nuclear, calling it "completely fabricated" and exposing the Pakistani-Arabic media channel as manipulation architecture once again.
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Brian McMahon
Brian McMahon@mcmahonb·
@taobanker “As graduation approached, he was still uncertain what he wanted to do for a career. During a homecoming weekend, he met Yale alumnus Bill Donaldson, and after graduating in 1969, he joined Donaldson’s investment banking firm, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette.” (on Steve Schwarzman)
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John Kemp
John Kemp@JKempEnergy·
Oil bears anticipate re-opening of Hormuz Investors boosted bearish short positions in Brent crude for the seventh consecutive week amid rising expectations that the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be eased soon by negotiations or broken by force. Hedge funds and other money managers had more than doubled short positions in Brent to 100 million barrels by May 19 from a low of 40 million on March 31, according to records filed with ICE Futures Europe ...
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Brian McMahon
Brian McMahon@mcmahonb·
This is a fairly obvious fact. General commentators in the media keep talking about the “resilient consumer” and amazingly “strong earnings,” but the truth is the revenue is almost entirely a circular card game, and we are already months into general recession:
Bull Theory@BullTheoryio

🚨 MICHAEL BURRY JUST WARNED THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MAY BE BUILT ON TEMPORARY DEMAND. He published a post today calling Nvidia "the North Star, Orion, the whole Milky Way" and explaining why that makes it the most dangerous stock in the market right now. His core argument is: Nvidia is selling into a concentrated group of buyers Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta who are all racing to buy chips not because they need them for real revenue generating products right now, but because they are in a training and benchmarking phase that will not last forever. Hyperscalers currently account for approximately 50% of all Nvidia data center revenue. When the training phase ends and these companies shift from building AI to deploying it, the demand profile changes completely. Burry calls this the "bullwhip effect." When the buyers at the end of a supply chain over order because they are afraid of missing out, the distortion amplifies all the way back through the chain. Nvidia sees record demand. Nvidia locks in massive custom supply commitments. Data center financing expands to accommodate the buildout. Everyone bets the demand is permanent. Nvidia just reported $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 85% year over year. Data center revenue alone was $75.2 billion, up 92%. The numbers are real but the question Burry is asking is whether the demand behind those numbers is structural or temporary. He calls it the "bezzle." A term coined by economist John Kenneth Galbraith to describe the gap between what people think they own and what actually exists. In a bezzle, the money feels real, the assets feel real, and everything looks fine until the moment it does not. Historically the semiconductor industry is highly cyclical. The persistent fear among analysts is that the current build out phase of AI will eventually lead to oversupply of computing power and when that happens the whiplash into Nvidia's revenue could be severe. Burry has been wrong on timing before. He called the market a sell in 2023 and it went up 131% since then. But the 2008 mortgage crisis he predicted also looked like a timing mistake for two years before it was not. The difference this time is that he is not just making a macro call. He is pointing to a specific mechanism, concentrated buyers, a temporary demand phase, and custom supply commitments that create obligations on both sides and saying the math only works until the training phase ends. Nvidia trades at 33 times forward earnings on $81 billion in quarterly revenue. If hyperscaler capex slows even 20%, that math changes very fast.

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WW3finalboss
WW3finalboss@WW3finalboss·
🇺🇦🇷🇺 UKRAINE REACHED THE MISSILE FACTORY A Flamingo cruise missile reportedly hit Russia’s Votkinsk Plant on February 20, about 1,350km from Ukraine. That plant is not some random shed in the rear. It is tied to Oreshnik, Iskander, Kinzhal, Yars and Bulava missile production, the kind of weapons Moscow uses to terrorize Ukraine and threaten everyone else. Russia built its war around distance, mass and intimidation. Ukraine is now making even the deep rear feel a lot less deep.
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HFI Research
HFI Research@HFI_Research·
“The level of jawboning has reached unprecedented levels, but it just proves to me that the oil math is on the right track. I mean, these guys literally published that a deal was imminent on May 20th, 15 minutes before the EIA released the largest crude draw in history. You can’t even make this stuff up anymore, but it is what it is. The oil math is what it is. The oil market might be suffering the death of a thousand headlines today, but it is a real commodity at the end of the day, and you can’t print more molecules.”
HFI Research@HFI_Research

(Public) Death By A Thousand Headlines Jawbone headlines are delaying the inevitable in the oil market: demand destruction. hfir.com/p/public-death…

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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
IRAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS DEAL NOT CLOSE IRAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS NO IMMINENT AGREEMENT
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