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Election predictions based on all the polling and historical errors: a very long thread
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Cleveland and Coolidge Fan
5.2K posts
Cleveland and Coolidge Fan
@mdavidwakefield
A little bit centrist, a little bit libertarian, but mostly just fed up
Oregon, USA Katılım Temmuz 2021
375 Takip Edilen241 Takipçiler
The victory lap seems a bit premature given that this market is basically still a coin flip lol
Spencer Hakimian@SpencerHakimian
If you’re a Republican: The Bad News: Gavin Newsom will be your president in 2.5 years from now. The Good News: You’ll win back the House and Senate in 2030.
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My predictions:
2026: 52-48 GOP Senate, 229-206 DEM House
2028: 286-252 Newsom win, 51-49 GOP Senate, 224-211 DEM House
2030: 55-45 GOP Senate, 232-203 GOP House win
2032: 331-207 Rubio win, 56-44 GOP Senate, 228-207 GOP House win
Spencer Hakimian@SpencerHakimian
If you’re a Republican: The Bad News: Gavin Newsom will be your president in 2.5 years from now. The Good News: You’ll win back the House and Senate in 2030.
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I really want to know what Donald Trump’s letter to Joe Biden in 2021 said.
The Bush Archive@TheBushArchive
President George W. Bush leaves a letter to President Barack Obama after leaving the Oval Office for the last time as President. 2009 (read below the letter he left.)
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❌polling Georgia gov
✅ polling Florida gov with Casey DeSantis
Political Polls@PpollingNumbers
New - Governor Poll - Florida 🔵 Jolly 40% (+1) 🔴 C DeSantis 39% Emerson #A - LV - 3/31
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Horseshoe theory vindicated yet again
Nicholas J. Stelzner@stelzner_n1150
A list of names I would vote for President in 2028: Thomas Massie Joe Kent Marco Rubio Ron DeSantis Tucker Carlson Ro Khanna
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Atp there are really only two options.
Either the GOP gets absolutely shellacked at an unprecedented level or there are going to be a LOT of very disappointed democrats. Either way the losing side had it coming
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People forget kemp was winning every poll against Ossoff, some by sizable margins. He would almost certainly be the favorite. But the GOP can’t have nice things so he decided to probably run for a race he can’t win instead
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
If Kemp ran for Georgia Senate how would he fare against Ossoff? What would the margin look like?
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@Ulysses_Wept @Taylor_A_Eaton (c)atholic? Sure. Roman Catholic? Certainly not.
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@Taylor_A_Eaton The Gospels literally describe the establishment of the Roman Catholic Church.
The Roman Catholic Church is also the reason we have the Gospels today.
Brother, come home.
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To join the Roman Catholic Church is to functionally leave the gospel behind.
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@Catholicizm1 There is no “mandatory fasting” under the New Covenant 🤦🏼♂️ fasting is between you and God and should not be ritualistic or performative
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Not just no meat today. It’s a day of mandatory fasting. You’re allowed 1 meal if you’re weak.
That Catholic Guy 🇻🇦@Catholic_bro
Remember no meat today
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Never ceases to amaze me how this can happen in a city like Boston lol
Clay Travis@ClayTravis
Boston Red Sox fans boo the Democrat Mayor and Governor as they are introduced at Fenway Park. If baseball fans in deep blue Massachusetts boo both Democrats, who the hell is voting for them?
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@eldermullenial Maybe. For some reason a lot of democrats on here seem to really like McMorrow
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If Abdul is only leading by 11% online he's losing hard
Joe@electionsjoe
2026 DEM PRIMARY POLL (Keep scrolling for more). Michigan Senate:
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That’s not even what he said in the clip. Stupidest headline I’ve seen in at least a month
Breitbart News@BreitbartNews
Thom Tillis says he'll vote no on Trump's next AG nominee if they don't agree that January 6 was worse than Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and the Trail of Tears in every single facet.
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Interestingly I don’t think I’ve seen any approval polls since Mamdani took office? Anybody know if there have been?
R@shibadad8
We’re seeing Mamdani, Talarico, and Platner running on issues and morals that matter to the working class Americans and they are surging in the polls. Mamdani is the dems most popular politician. And y’all telling me the youth wants centrist-like candidates? 😭
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@CloudsterWx @scott_kernen The guy only needs like 2000 write in votes statewide in the primary to make the ballot. I’d be pretty surprised if he can’t get that lol
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@mdavidwakefield @scott_kernen Write-in campaigns go notoriously well
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On a side note Reps literally have no candidate on the ballot for the senate race.
Shiloh Marx@Shilohmarx
Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) won by 91,355 votes in 2024. New Mexico counted 111,527 mail-in ballots. New Mexico does not require Voter ID.
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@bdquinn Every politician in Vermont cowers at the thought of Phil Scott campaigning against them
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I still think about this result from 2024. Voters really, really don't like property tax increases.
Sir Humphrey 🇺🇦@bdquinn
Vermont voters voting Republican for governor is a desperate exercise to keep the legislature from raising taxes to the moon.
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I’m a progressive politically on most issues but I I still haven’t seen any data that would suggest the reason Kamala Harris lost is that she wasn’t far left enough on policy
She was in fact **perceived** as too far left & as being too preoccupied with social issues
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@rep_favorite Obviously he sucks but I still think polarization will save him at the end of the day
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