Michal T.

Built a free oracle dispute tracker for @Polymarket - whale voter analysis, settlement sweeping, real-time alerts for Telegram. oraclewatch.xyz Will be happy for any critique/feedback either in comments or DMs. @PolymarketBuild

@lorden_eth This one is somewhat fine btw, but I also see these posts attached to copy trading bots etc., which makes my blood boil the most.

@lorden_eth I wonder if people just don't research at all, because there are so many posts about this explaining, that it isn't a "real" profile, yet I constantly see new clueless posts every day.

Me to Claude after i saw someone make $2M+ in LP > name is anon > made zero buys > made zero sells > has $0 PnL on profile > $1M+ in referral rewards > $700k in yield APR > $900k in maker rebate

@martinlindenn I would say that until today, where i essentially get 10% of session usage per prompt, which i would call fine, until the fact that it's a low effort prompt that only outputs text from claude. Whatever they "fixed" just became completely shit. Just for context, I am on 5x sub.

I don't get what everyone is bitching about so much. I use Claude all the time and the limits are foin

OracleWatch Weekly (Apr 21, 2026) Past two weeks on Polymarket's UMA oracle: 81k proposals | 127 disputes | 81k settlements 479 currently open for challenge | 12 active DVM votes Notable events: - Honduras 2025 turnout market finally resolved to 60-65% YES after 4+ months of disputes. The disputer blocking it held $9k in opposing positions. - "Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15?" is still disputed. Iran blames UAE for the Lavan refinery strike on April 8, but attribution remains unconfirmed. 210k total proposals tracked. 841 disputes. 0.4% dispute rate. oraclewatch.xyz @Polymarket @PolymarketBuild @UMAprotocol

Exactly this, I tried it, made basically 12 pages, tweaked some changes onto the last 3 specifically and it hit the limit so fast. What is more frustrating is that I wanted to use extra usage that they gave out for it, and the thing is bugged so it returns empty strings, but eats your money from extra usage.

Oh, so Claude Design has it's own usage limit outside of everything else? And of course, already hit it... So now I can't use it until NEXT FRIDAY? OK...

@prane00 @U__anderson I have yet to have a clean session for LP, but for me it was clearly skill issue, i am not even rejecting that

@U__anderson @meduzinator True,as I said I am a newbie to LP back then,so I lost ..now earned around 1530$ in LP with 20-30$ in loss atmost while farming LP.

filtering Polymarket LP rewards to find zero volume markets never been that easy

@prane00 @U__anderson Exactly what i wanted to say, if it worked like that, even low capital people would have alpha in LP

@U__anderson One fill on no volume market, guy will be doomed.

I checked the disputer's on-chain positions for the Honduras turnout market: 17,415 shares on 55-60% YES ($7k value) 5,000 shares on <55% YES ($1.1k value) 1,500 shares on 60-65% NO ($1k value) They lose on all three if 60-65% resolves YES correctly. The dispute isn't about accuracy - it's about protecting a losing position. oraclewatch.xyz @Polymarket @UMAprotocol

"Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?" - $1.6M market, still unresolved after 4+ months. Official turnout: 60.19% per Honduras CNE, confirmed by EU Election Observation Mission and OAS observers. Every credible source agrees. Two YES proposals filed, both disputed. The market is stuck in final review while traders wait. oraclewatch.xyz @Polymarket @UMAprotocol

"Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?" - proposed NO on the UMA oracle. Disputed. On March 31, an Iranian drone struck the Kuwaiti VLCC Al Salmi near Dubai carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil. Fire onboard, confirmed by Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, and maritime intel sources. The same proposer then re-proposed NO again. That one expired unchallenged. oraclewatch.xyz @Polymarket @UMAprotocol

@T_BALLER6 @AsyncAndy @HiveLiveHQ Same address actually - the proposer disputed their own proposal. Likely realized the resolution was wrong (men's game wasn't played, only the women's) and self-disputed to send it to DVM vote for correction.

@meduzinator @AsyncAndy @HiveLiveHQ So in this case, did he dispute it on another account?

SOMEONE JUST TURNED $85 INTO $30k This is a bit hard to understand, so bear with us: 4 months ago, the Houston Cougars and Arkansas State Red wolves played a WOMEN'S college basketball game against each other There was a Polymarket for it. It went normally. Arkansas won However, Polymarket created a second market with the same schools, but for the MEN'S college basketball teams The problem? Houston and Arkansas never played each other in men's college basketball So, now, 4 months later, the men's market was still up, and unresolved (because the game never happened) An anonymous trader noticed this discrepancy and made the genius move of proposing Arkansas as the winner of the game This made dozens of bots that auto-bond proposed sports markets to flood into the market and buy 99.9c shares. The trader took the other side and got 35,000 shares at 0.1c The market will resolve 50/50 because it's for a game that never happened, so he just 500x'd

The bond to propose a resolution is $500 USDC per market - no UMA tokens required. If your proposal goes unchallenged for 2 hours, you get the bond back. If someone disputes it, both sides put up $500 and it goes to UMA's DVM vote. I got interested in this lately and made oraclewatch.xyz - tracks proposals, disputes, bonds and DVM votes.

@HiveLiveHQ What was the cost to propose the resolution though? Don’t you have to hold a pretty high amount of UMA to propose resolutions or am I mistaken?

OracleWatch Weekly - Apr 6, 2026 This week on Polymarket's UMA oracle: 40k proposals | 29 disputes | 3k settlements 290 currently pending | 30 active DVM votes Notable disputes: - "US forces enter Iran by April 30?" - YES proposed, disputed, heading to DVM with 0 votes cast - "Will Iran strike UAE again by March 31?" - two YES proposals, both disputed. Australia and Dubai contradicting each other on whether a strike landed - "US forces enter Iran by December 31?" - same debate, longer timeframe, two more disputes - FK Dynamo Kyiv vs FK Karpaty Lviv - O/U and BTTS both disputed 108k total proposals tracked. 667 disputes. 0.61% dispute rate. oraclewatch.xyz @Polymarket @PolymarketBuild @UMAprotocol

"Will Iran strike UAE again by March 31?" - two YES proposals, both disputed on Polymarket's UMA oracle. The debate: Australia confirms an Iranian projectile hit Al Minhad Air Base, damaging military facilities. Dubai says all strikes were intercepted. Market rules say intercepted missiles don't count - but the Australian Defence Ministry says there was impact. oraclewatch.xyz @Polymarket @UMAprotocol

@austiinxbt @Polymarket wish the web actually worked for me.. not that i have enough capital to play in these markets anyways, but i can't even log in :D

The $5M of Polymarket LP Rewards are officially live! Already playing around with Limit Orders to see where there is an edge Will be posting more blog & video tutorials soon 🤝

"US forces enter Iran by April 30?" has been disputed on Polymarket's UMA oracle 2 days ago. Still zero DVM votes. Proposer said YES and got challenged within minutes. Escalated to UMA's DVM - the supposed backstop for resolving disputed markets. So far? No voters, no resolution. Meanwhile, a second proposer already submitted YES again without waiting for the vote. oraclewatch.xyz @Polymarket @UMAprotocol

Regarding the refunds, Polymarket staff on Discord confirmed that they should happen "EOD today".

Polymarket confirmed all future NRFI markets will use the new "Will there be a run in the first inning?" format going forward. Track all oracle disputes and DVM votes in real-time: oraclewatch.xyz/dvm

Polymarket is refunding 16 "first inning" markets after a title change flipped YES/NO meaning. NRFI (No Run First Inning) was changed to "Will there be a run in the first inning?" - opposite question, same positions. The Tampa Bay vs Brewers NRFI went to UMA DVM vote: 100 voters, 16.4M $UMA, 100% unanimous YES. oraclewatch.xyz @Polymarket @UMAprotocol @PolymarketBuild

Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC (J2 League, Mar 29th) finished 2-1. Yet the UMA oracle proposed "draw" as YES and defaulted to UNKNOWN on 7 other markets: O/U, spreads, BTTS, as if no result existed. 8 of 9 proposals incorrect. 0 disputes filed. All expired unchallenged. Tracked via oraclewatch.xyz @Polymarket @PolymarketBuild @UMAprotocol

@john_john_son67 So far Polymarket only confirmed the refunds, but they haven't specified any date/timeframe yet, will keep an eye on it though.

@misaktrojan Do you know anything about when the refunds will be? I’m out like $500