Mehdi Yahyanejad

خبری که چند ساعته درباره‌ی مجتبی و مرگش در بیمارستان «لقمان» منتشر میشه، صحت نداره.

@LittleLula1 I usually go through previous posts to make sure if they are from Iran or not. X showing Germany doesn’t mean someone is not from Iran.

@mehdiy_fa From Germany via the United States app. 🙄

An X user in Iran: “What the hell was that hit just now. The ground shook. No one knows what's going on in this messed-up place. Open the net for the people, you bastard. #DigitalBlackOutIran”

An X user in Iran: “Layoff news is coming in—even companies that made it through COVID, the previous war, and other troubles are tapped out this time. In some places, their Eid bonuses were paid at half.”

An X user in Iran: “The body's reaction after each bombing Both my hands start itching from the fingers to the elbows So much that I want to cut them off”

“I was in all of Tehran until yesterday, and really, the destruction relative to the city's size is so minimal that you could wander around for an hour and not see a thing. Just like I didn't. Like the intensity of the bombing noises, this too depends on where you live and isn't the same for everyone.”

@adibforoutan احتمال داره که تفکر غالبشون همین بوده.

@mehdiy_fa به نظرم خامنه ای در مورد غرب همیشه مطمئن بود هر وقت بخواد میتونه از کارت نرمش قهرمانانه اش استفاده کنه. ظاهرا امتیازات زیادی تو مذاکرات داده بودند و خیالش راحت بوده اینا بیشتر از این حرفها بند زندگی مادی اند که بخواهند عواقب شروع کردن جنگ رو بپذیرند.

One thing I still don’t get: how did the Iranian government get caught this off guard at the beginning of the war? They lost Khamenei and a bunch of commanders at his compound, and at the same time lost top intel guys in another meeting in the intelligence ministry.

A single, unverified source says Mojtaba Khamenei was in a coma at Loghman Hospital and is now dead. پیام از یک سورس و طبیعتا تایید نشده: «دوستم از ایران آنلاین شد و گفت از کادر بیمارستان لقمان خبردار شده که مجتبی تو کما بوده و امروز سقط شده!!» [ دیتای خامِ کمای مجتبی به الو رسیده بود (شنبه ۲۳ اسفند). بستری شدنش توی بیمارستان هم همین‌طور (شنبه ۱۶ اسفند) ]

I haven’t seen them publicizing the casualties besides the Minab school case. For example, the targeting of the gas facilities had casualties but it was not reported at all. I agree with the rest of your points. The January massacre has made it really difficult for them to use the civilian casualties as part of their propaganda.

I think part of it is not due to lack of trying (e.g. the Minab school narrative is pushed by regime officials and their western sympathizers in almost every interview). The combination of internet blackout, no independent media access, and deep distrust of regime narratives post #PS752 and #IranMassacre is making it difficult for them to generate that media wave. I agree with the projection of weakness point though. The regime has proven to be a paper tiger in almost anything defense-related. Maneuvering too much on human costs raises the valid question of what the hell they are doing to protect citizens, and why billions of dollars have been spent on the IRGC with almost zero effect on protecting the regime and the people of Iran.

The Iranian government has chosen to project normalcy. They could easily have created a wartime atmosphere by engineering shortages of electricity or gas and blaming enemies, but they have not. They are also not making major propaganda use of civilian casualties. By projecting normalcy, they avoid showing weakness or preventing the population to see the regime as on the downward spiral. The downside to this strategy is that this prevents getting the support of anti-war crowd internationally. Not many gruesome videos of killed civilians are published to mobilize the left in the West. We haven’t seen any major anti-war protests in the West. The regime is also failing to turn parts of the Iranian population against the war by not imposing serious hardship on them. I am not sure how long they can keep the pretense of normalcy in the country. Sooner or later serious shortages will start.

@lorraineadams Thanks for your comment. Sometime i post something that I believe its an important observation but it goes unnoticed. I am glad there are people who recognize its value.

@mehdiy_fa Fascinating point

@caspargholi True. That’s their main calculation.

@mehdiy_fa They're relying on fuel prices and the bill from the Pentagon. These are far more likely to move voters to punish the GOP for Trump's war.

Islamic regime just executed 3 protesters on the eve of the Iranian New Year. Executions close to Nowruz is one of the Islamic regime’s traditions. My uncle too was hanged on the 23rd of Esfand (a week before Nowruz) and the family was informed only afterwards.

RT @golshan_fathi: از دربند به رسم همه سالهایی که یادمه اومدم #تجریش

@70SangeGhabr They probably were but we all knew attacks are most likely going to happen that weekend.

@mehdiy_fa The negotiations were probably staged to look genuine.

Informative NYT oped by a Navy veteran on the challenge and necessity of reopening the Strait of Hormuz: “Should the regime survive the war with the power to close Hormuz at will…any declarations of victory by the United States will ring hollow.” nytimes.com/2026/03/19/opi…

@MohammadJa68167 :)

@mehdiy_fa بیمه‌ی ابولفضل‌شون باطل شده بود.

@mz101111 Sounds too simplistic somehow.

@mehdiy_fa The 'Tucker' effect.

@Itsverytrue00 I could imagine Khamenei not caring and wanting to die but not sure about all the other ones.

@mehdiy_fa At this point i think they really want to become martyrs & do not care about death. The thing is if everyone wants to die, there wont be anyone left to actually fight. Ghalibaf & Qaani seem to be the only ones who are taking security measures seriously right now.

@fariddiequantum Tehran traffic cameras make sense. But I don’t get Carlson. Sounds too simplistic.

@mehdiy_fa Follow Carlson scandal and Tehran traffic cameras leak to see how it happened.