Matt 🇨🇦 🇨🇺 🇵🇸

Confirmed minimum IDF casualties since October 7th: 826 KIA from Gaza 97 KIA from Lebanon 20 KIA in West Bank 5 KIA in Israel 2 KIA from Iraq 1 KIA from Iran 4 military contractors #Israel #Palestine #Jerusalem #Lebanon

Confirmed minimum IDF casualties since October 7th: 826 KIA from Gaza 97 KIA from Lebanon 19 KIA in West Bank 5 KIA in Israel 2 KIA from Iraq 1 KIA from Iran 4 military contractors #Israel #Palestine #Jerusalem #Lebanon

Flights to Tel Aviv cancelled: Air France through May 27th Austrian Airlines through June 1st KLM through June 28th Lufthansa, Swiss, ITA through June 30th British Airways through June 30th Air Canada through September 7th

Flights to Dubai cancelled: Air France through May 27th KLM through June 28th British Airways through June 30th Turkish Airlines through July 1st Singapore Airlines through August 2nd Air Canada through September 7th Lufthansa Group through September 13th

Flights to Dubai cancelled: Air France through May 27th Turkish Airlines through May 31st KLM through June 28th British Airways through June 30th Lufthansa Group through July 11th Singapore Airlines through August 2nd Air Canada through September 7th

Flights to Tel Aviv cancelled: Air France through May 27th KLM through June 28th Lufthansa Group through June 30th British Airways through June 30th Air Canada through September 7th

Flights to Dubai cancelled: Air France through May 20th Turkish Airlines through May 31st KLM through June 28th British Airways through June 30th Lufthansa Group through July 11th Singapore Airlines through August 2nd Air Canada through September 7th

Flights to Tel Aviv cancelled: Air France through May 20th KLM through June 28th Lufthansa Group through June 30th British Airways through June 30th Air Canada through September 7th

@Varelli1999 @GanzeGeschichte Hungary allowed its citizens to go abroad if they felt that they would return. Like one person going abroad while their spouse and child remain in Hungary. Some people would go have a picnic in Austria, only bringing food (no luggage) and then they never returned.

@GanzeGeschichte Travel prohibition was on DDR side? Where did people from DDR go to vacation? As kid on Adriatic I remember lots of Germans and also some Czechs and Hungarians.

Dieses Video von einer Flucht aus der DDR 1988 durchs Wasser ist noch immer erstaunlich unbekannt. #Berlin #SED #Border

@Varelli1999 @GanzeGeschichte People in the DDR vacationed domestically. Cottages and some hotels and resorts. In the late 80s, their citizens who were permitted to visit communist countries ended up climbing into West German embassies in Prague, Budapest and Warsaw. This was during 1989.

@PlastiqSoldier @gbrew24 Yeah, Iran’s closure of Hormuz and the US’s blockade of Iran mean that the ceasefire has not come into effect yet.

@gbrew24 Isn't Iran keeping Hormuz closed a violation of the ceasefire? I don't think see bombing the UAE as worse than that.

US may end up breaking the ceasefire and going back to bombing if Trump decides that's what he wants to do, but I'm not sure the defense of the UAE is a strong enough casus belli, at least not right now. Bigger question is whether today's actions from Iran are strong enough to keep "Operation Freedom" from taking off.

Flights to Dubai cancelled: Air France through May 20th Turkish Airlines through May 31st KLM through June 21st British Airways through June 30th Lufthansa Group through July 11th Air Canada through September 7th

Flights to Tel Aviv cancelled: Air France through May 20th KLM through May 30th Lufthansa Group through June 30th British Airways through June 30th Air Canada through September 7th

@mehdiy_fa It remains to be seen if any ships will leave the Gulf, let alone enter. Fewer than 10 ships a day continues global suffering. The threat of attack and capture keeps insurance costs too high or unavailable. If American warships patrol the Strait, that makes it a combat area.

همان‌طور که قبلاً نوشته بودم، آمریکا نمی‌تواند بسته ماندن هرمز را تحمل کند. فشار سیاسی بر ترامپ قابل توجه بود. با این حرکت آمریکا، اگر جمهوری اسلامی به کشتی‌های آمریکا حمله کند، به‌عنوان آغازگر دور جدیدی از جنگ شناخته خواهد شد و همدلی بین‌المللی کمتری دریافت خواهد کرد. اگر هم آمریکا را به چالش نکشد، در این صورت آمریکا می‌تواند محاصره جمهوری‌اسلامی را بشکند و در عین حال محاصره خود علیه جمهوری‌اسلامی را به‌طور نامحدود ادامه دهد، تا زمانی که حکومت تسلیم شود. جمهوری اسلامی فرصتش را برای یک معاهده‌ای که میتوانست نسبتا به نفعش باشد را از دست داد. در ته این ماجرا در وضعیت خیلی بدتری خواهد بود.

@aarondmiller2 No, none of that will happen.

To guide ships out of straits, US navy vessels need to be in straits. That means exposure to Iranian strikes, drones, mines. Are we putting US marines on non US flagged ships to counter drones? Are we deploying 6 destroyers to escort multiple tankers and flying air caps too.

@eurofounder Did you get rebooked on a flight later that day? Or for the next day?

This is how a responsible airline handles jet fuel crisis

@LyleHender56329 @johnarnold Based on the amount of money that the regime has. Paying 500,000 people $500 per month is $250 million. $500 is double the average wage. Even paying 1 million of the most important people and security forces is half a billion. They can pay for a few more months.

@gnr2525 @johnarnold What are you basing that strong view on? How do you know who’s getting paid?

We've reached the point in the war when neither side has a good card to play and both think they can wait the other out, which would seem like a manageable stalemate except that the oil market is losing circa 10 million barrels of supply each day.

@jamesmktmaster @johnarnold With the bypasses, how much is the world still short of oil? 5%, 10%, 15%?

@johnarnold 10M bpd offline is a legitimate shock. Hormuz remains conditional. The differentiator: UAE's Fujairah pipeline and East Coast terminals provide routing alternatives most regional markets simply lack.

@LyleHender56329 @johnarnold The regime elites are so wealthy that they do not feel any pressure. They have many homes and lots of food. The poor are suffering and the middle class is burning through their savings. But they will be shot if they attack the Basij, police, military. Security is still paid.

@johnarnold And what’s happening on the other side? All of these thought exercises imply that Iran has no economy or population. That the pressure during a stalemate is only building in one area.

@Mehdi_IR_DC @nntaleb Andy, Martik and Viguen rock!

@nntaleb The best mechanics, bakeries and musicians in Tehran.

"We don’t want Armenians to be able to serve in Congress.” Randy Fine. Not a smart move: the Armenian diaspora managed to be loved in all places: Beirut, Aleppo, Palestine, California, NJ, Venice ( San Lazaro), Marseille. Fine panicked into generalizing his fight ag. Armenians.