Melvin

Kimi K3 just revealed why Jensen has been rooting for open source to win the entire AI race (Save this). If only two or three labs, say OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google end up controlling frontier AI, they become enormously powerful buyers of compute. That sounds good for Nvidia at first but it is actually dangerous. A handful of mega scale buyers have the leverage and the balance sheets to eventually vertically integrate. They can build custom chips, negotiate down Nvidia's margins, or in the extreme case become largely self sufficient on their own silicon. Concentrated buyers become powerful enough to squeeze the supplier but An open source ecosystem prevents that concentration from ever forming. When labs like Moonshot release frontier quality open weight models like Kimi K3, it does two things simultaneously. It caps how much pricing power the closed labs can command, since enterprises now have a free, credible alternative to run instead of paying premium API prices. And it multiplies the number of independent players competing at the model layer, which means no single lab or small cluster of labs ever accumulates enough scale or leverage to challenge Nvidia's position the way a concentrated oligopoly eventually could. This is why more competition at the model layer is good for Nvidia specifically because of how it reshapes buyer power. A fragmented market of many labs, many open forks, and many independent developers means demand for compute stays spread across thousands of buyers instead of consolidating into a few giants with the scale to eventually walk away from Nvidia's ecosystem. Every one of those fragmented buyers still needs the same GPUs, whether they're running Kimi K3, a fine-tuned derivative of it, or their own separately trained model. None of them individually have the size to negotiate the kind of custom silicon relationship that a company spending hundreds of billions of dollars a year could pursue. So Jensen backing open source and simultaneously backstopping neocloud financing are the same strategic move from two different angles. Both are designed to keep AI compute demand distributed across a large, competitive base of buyers who all rent from Nvidia-powered infrastructure, rather than letting the market consolidate into a small number of mega-buyers powerful enough to eventually threaten Nvidia's position as the industry's dominant supplier. Bullish on open source and on Neoclouds, make sure to follow @MelvinInvests for more AI infrastructure insights.

@IntlOptions Thank you :)

@MelvinInvests Awesome, first person to put it down so precisely and concisely on X

Kimi K3 just revealed why Jensen has been rooting for open source to win the entire AI race (Save this). If only two or three labs, say OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google end up controlling frontier AI, they become enormously powerful buyers of compute. That sounds good for Nvidia at first but it is actually dangerous. A handful of mega scale buyers have the leverage and the balance sheets to eventually vertically integrate. They can build custom chips, negotiate down Nvidia's margins, or in the extreme case become largely self sufficient on their own silicon. Concentrated buyers become powerful enough to squeeze the supplier but An open source ecosystem prevents that concentration from ever forming. When labs like Moonshot release frontier quality open weight models like Kimi K3, it does two things simultaneously. It caps how much pricing power the closed labs can command, since enterprises now have a free, credible alternative to run instead of paying premium API prices. And it multiplies the number of independent players competing at the model layer, which means no single lab or small cluster of labs ever accumulates enough scale or leverage to challenge Nvidia's position the way a concentrated oligopoly eventually could. This is why more competition at the model layer is good for Nvidia specifically because of how it reshapes buyer power. A fragmented market of many labs, many open forks, and many independent developers means demand for compute stays spread across thousands of buyers instead of consolidating into a few giants with the scale to eventually walk away from Nvidia's ecosystem. Every one of those fragmented buyers still needs the same GPUs, whether they're running Kimi K3, a fine-tuned derivative of it, or their own separately trained model. None of them individually have the size to negotiate the kind of custom silicon relationship that a company spending hundreds of billions of dollars a year could pursue. So Jensen backing open source and simultaneously backstopping neocloud financing are the same strategic move from two different angles. Both are designed to keep AI compute demand distributed across a large, competitive base of buyers who all rent from Nvidia-powered infrastructure, rather than letting the market consolidate into a small number of mega-buyers powerful enough to eventually threaten Nvidia's position as the industry's dominant supplier. Bullish on open source and on Neoclouds, make sure to follow @MelvinInvests for more AI infrastructure insights.

@real__m22 Hell yea

@MelvinInvests fvck yeah! open source ftw!💪💪💪

Nebius is an example of a company that delivers everything they promise and today's $775 million deal is that proof (Save this). Volozh laid out Nebius's capital raising evolution as a clear progression at Inflection 2026. It started with $2 billion 23 months ago, then enough to begin reserving capacity, since reserving GPU capacity only costs about 1% of total capex. From there, Nebius raised billions last year to start building data centers, then reserved tens of billions this year to fund a full gigawatt of GPU buildout. Now the company is explicitly thinking about how to get to hundreds of billions of dollars. That escalation ladder millions to billions to tens of billions to a stated goal of hundreds of billions is the exact same ladder this morning's financing news sits on. The $775 million senior secured debt facility announced today is a direct execution of the financing toolkit Volozh described, asset-backed lending against deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows from an investment-grade customer, which is precisely the huge backstop contract style structure he referenced as one of the tools that let Nebius "finance our build cheaply." Volozh credited three financing innovations for getting Nebius this far. Being first to use a prepayment model where customers pay upfront to help fund the build, being one of the first to use backstop style contracts that make debt financing cheap and using converts and other traditional instruments alongside those newer tools. Today's deal is that backstop model in action. The facility is backed by contracted cash flows from an investment-grade customer, and Nebius disclosed it has more than $40 billion of additional contracted revenue from customers like Microsoft and Meta that can be used to replicate this exact structure again. If $775 million can be raised against a single customer contract using this backstop structure and Nebius has more than fifty times that amount in signed, investment-grade revenue still sitting on its books, the company has a clear, repeatable mechanism to keep scaling this same playbook toward the number Volozh set as the target. Extremely bullish on Nebius and make sure to follow me @MelvinInvests for more AI infrastructure insights.

@Xlightoflife Shows the demand for compute, I am not really worried about META, tbh they are unlikely to lease it out because they need it for their internal use.

@MelvinInvests What about Meta being a competitor for neoclouds ?

@MilkRoadAI Thank you!

@MelvinInvests great take sire

@MilkRoadMacro Bro is a genius

@MelvinInvests This is why Jensen is the king maker of AI

I’m an analyst at Milk Road, and my job is to find underrated gems before the market catches on. We called names like MU, CRDO, NBIS, and BE over the last 3 months. Join me and my team for just $1. #1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">milkroad.com/pro/?utm_mediu…

Nebius is the king of all Neo-clouds and this financing deal is the receipt (Save this). Nebius raised approximately $775 million in its first senior secured debt facility, intended to accelerate the global build out of its full stack AI cloud platform. The facility is backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows from an investment grade customer agreement, matures October 31, 2030 and is priced at SOFR plus 2.50%. Here is why the structure matters more than the size. This is asset backed lending, meaning they are lending against GPUs already deployed and generating revenue under a signed contract with a creditworthy counterparty. That is fundamentally lower risk than unsecured debt, which is why Nebius could price it this cheaply on a debut deal. Together with cash flows from that customer agreement, the facility covers more than 100% of the capex required to deploy the underlying GPU infrastructure. The hardware pays for itself through contracted revenue and the loan covers the entire buildout with room to spare. Nebius also confirmed it recently delivered the latest planned capacity tranche to Microsoft and remains on track for the rest, independent proof the commercial relationship is executing as contracted. Now compare this to peers, because CoreWeave closed an $8.5 billion GPU backed loan in March at SOFR plus 225 basis points, but needed three years and multiple prior facilities to get there. Nebius landed at SOFR plus 250 basis points on its very first secured deal, just 25 basis points wider than CoreWeave's fourth generation, investment-grade facility. CoreWeave needed a $19 billion Meta contract and years of borrowing history to reach investment grade terms. Nebius got there on attempt one, backed by eight major banks including MUFG, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Citi, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. The deal was also significantly oversubscribed, meaning lenders competed for allocation rather than needing convincing. Finally, this financing is entirely non-dilutive which means no new shares, no convertible notes, just capital secured directly against contracted revenue. Combined with the asset light partnership model announced earlier this week, this deal shows a company still building its balance sheet from scratch matching pricing terms that took an established peer years and a much larger anchor contract to achieve. Extremely bullish on Nebius and make sure to follow me @MelvinInvests for more AI infrastructure insights.

@adrianstockss yup!

@MelvinInvests Shows confidence form nebius management lending against their own and confidence from the institutions lending at such a great terms

@Underthecosh1 ahhh well long term this will a huge winner

@MelvinInvests I was thinking more about others you’ve been recommending it to lately

@Underthecosh1 haha, it's okay, my dollar cost average is so low

@MelvinInvests You’ll either be a hero or a zero with this one 🤷🏻‍♂️

@MilkRoadAI buy some coreweave too

@MelvinInvests king of all neoclouds!!

@milkroaddaily yes sir!

I’m an analyst at Milk Road, and my job is to find underrated gems before the market catches on. We called names like MU, CRDO, NBIS, and BE over the last 3 months. Join me and my team for just $1. #1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">milkroad.com/pro/?utm_mediu…

Jim Cramer just went on Mad Money and told investors to stay away from Nebius and that alone might be the strongest buy signal of the week (Save this). "Nebius is at the nexus of the craziness right now," Cramer said. "This stock is not done going down. There will be another time to buy it, but that time is not now." If you were waiting for one more confirmation, this week handed you several and the fundamentals moved the opposite direction from the stock price. Job postings in Singapore for Data Center Project Development, Site Selection & Colocation and Technical Due Diligence show Nebius actively scouting a new market, following similar signals in Wales and India within the same four day window. Job postings are a leading indicator that typically show up before a formal data center announcement, not after. Now here is the actual fundamental news from this week and it matters. Nebius announced a brand new business model, asset light infrastructure partnerships. Instead of financing every data center itself, outside partners will finance, own and operate the physical facilities. Nebius supplies the systems architecture, hardware design, software stack and its global sales organization. This is the same playbook major cloud providers and chipmakers have used for years, outsource the capital heavy physical layer, keep the high margin design and customer relationship layer. This directly addresses Nebius's biggest historical risk, the capital intensity of building GPU data centers fast enough to keep pace with demand. Nebius has already signed initial partnership deals under the new structure, meaning capacity can now scale globally without spending its own capital on land, steel, and power. None of this guarantees the stock stops falling in the short term, momentum is negative and the stock sits roughly 40% below its June all time high. The stock may keep falling but the thesis just got stronger and I am buying the company Nebius is becoming. Extremely bullish on Nebius and make sure to follow me @melvininvests for more underrated gems.

@milkroaddaily yes sir

@MelvinInvests bullish on Nebius!

@MilkRoadAI haha good

@MelvinInvests yup, that's my cue to buy!