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YCC 👀

Best advice I got in my 20s: Nobody cares. When you’re winning, nobody cares. When you’re losing, nobody cares. Stop fearing the judgement of people who were never even thinking about you. Nobody is thinking about you. They’re too busy thinking about themselves. Go do the thing.

Mr. Speaker, the OBBBA certainly puts more dollars in a worker’s refund check, but those dollars are currently buying 3% less than they did last year. If the combination of debt-funded tax cuts and new tariffs is driving up the cost of energy and everyday goods, isn't the GOP essentially taxing the American people through inflation rather than the IRS?

2026 Q1: illusion of inventory Q2: inflation print Q3: earnings confessions Q4: yield curve control

Seems like a mess of financial engineering shenanigans, for the very trusting and risk seeking. Plenty of reasons to avoid already, and soon Warsh and yield-bearing stables to likely add more risk and performance pressure. My condolences to the holders unaware. Next week’s Warsh hearing should be enlightening.

Clear the air My view on $MSTR I own BTC via $IBIT since 69420 At a small allocation of my wealth. I prefer gold I have been bearish MNAV of $MSTR since 11/20/2024. The MNAV has fallen massively and now rests at 1.09. That is NOT ridiculously rich at all. However the company is pursuing a strategy which will likely keep pressure on MNAV going forward. That pressure is offering $STRC at a decent size discount to fair value. By selling STRC at par particularly like today when it is full to the brim with dividends the company is selling this security at a 1-3% discount to fair value. Honestly that's not a bad thing for the company to do given the modest discount to fair value and the high proceeds they are taking in. BUT it does harm the common shareholders in two ways. 1. The discount itself is paid by the common shareholders to the preferred holders and 2. The preferred dividend (given that BTC/the companies asset pays no yield) represents forward issuance or forward BTC sales which are bad for the company's shareholders You may notice I've repeatedly said that the company is selling STRC at a discount. That explicitly means that the investor in STRC is getting to buy something cheap!!!! As an investor you have to like STRC. It's cheap! I am not a bear on STRC. I simply don't like it vs what it does to the common shareholders. My view on STRC is it is highly likely to generate pretty nice returns if BTC doesn't get crushed. Its risk is simple. BTC gets crushed and issuance liquidity for MSTR in all its forms falls and BTC sales become necessary to pay dividends. Fwiw that seems well prepared for given the fiat cash reserves the company has built up. So STRC is pretty sweet as a thing with probably 200bp per year of excess dividends vs fair with a substantial but unlikely left tail risk. BUT it's not good for shareholder MNAV Let's jump into MNAV dynamics. 1.09X is not that interesting as a short AT ALL. As long as the company has access to preferreds issaunce even at this 1-3% discount it can avoid issuing common shares or manage to issue just a bit. There are literally NO arbs short MSTR long BTC today at current prices and no downward pressure likely from new arbs going short. Why would they at 1.09? Could frustrated BTC investors with long equity positions in US equities (NDX) also sell their long MSTR such that it would go to an MNAV discount ? Sure. But with BTC anywhere within 40,000 of current spot the company has infinite flexibility to manage its issuance such that it won't trade at a sizable MNAV discount for much time. For instance let's say it traded at a .9MNAV while STRC traded at par. That would be the best arb of all time. Saylor could sell STRC and buy $MSTR back Basically with BTC doing fine my picture of the company is a slow convergence to MNAV of 1.0 and ongoing STRC chilling at par. The elephant in the room is the true believers in the common shares who still truly believe that the MNAV can massively expand back to its former glory or 2+. That time has past. Saylor will sell infinite shares at 1.5 if he has the ability to. And there is essentially infinite capital to do the short MSTR long BTC arb at levels like that. The MNAV expansion is a delusion built on meme stock experience where "the faithful" can stick it to "the man". STRC and the growing dividend expense makes the arb even more attractive than ever. Anyway that's where I stand.

I can’t read the paywalled article, but are you suggesting that income inequality does not have a negative effect on economic growth… that having more people with more money to spend would not be “pro-growth”? Isn’t that the argument and the justification for the regularly scheduled GOP tax-reduction strategies and deregulation initiatives? Don’t worry though, the benefits of AI productivity gains will reach everyone equally as the pie grows, unlike these other regressive policies. Is this your argument Clifford?! 🫠

A better title for this latest NYT op-ed by a former “economic official” for Biden would be “Artificial Inequality” The amount of time spent on whether the whole pie, that is whether most people would be materially worse or better off, is negative. Not zero, that would be ignoring it. But negative as this former “economic official” just asserts, linking to one very dubious “study”, that inequality hurts growth (the evidence there is very very tenuous yet cited as gospel by the Church of the left — the first time they’ve ever actually cared about economic growth so at least we have that). Nary a word about how making everything more productive might lead, you know, to more for everyone. The former “economic official” notes that the rich have a lower marginal propensity to consume, as a negative for growth of course (note they are also killing society by NOT consuming enough). But the “former official” can’t, or won’t, make the jump to realize that if they have a low propensity to consume and the whole pie grows faster this consumption growth is very broad based. Always a focus on jealousy not prosperity — except to pause and lie about it briefly.

I am a Web3 Ambassador at World Liberty Financial. There are 12 of us on the team page. 4 are named Trump. 3 are named Witkoff. The page calls us "the passionate minds shaping the future of finance." 600,000 wallets bought our memecoin. They lost $3.87 billion. The family collected $350 million in trading fees. It launched 3 days before the inauguration. 80% of the supply went to CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC. I did not choose the names. I designed the allocation, the vesting, the timing, and the distance between the product and the President. The distance is my best work. I am the reason these events are unrelated. World Liberty Financial sends 75 cents of every dollar to DT Marks DEFI LLC. That is the family entity. Zero capital contributed. Zero liability assumed. I wrote this into the Gold Paper. Page 14. The lawyers bound it in white leather. The binding cost more than the due diligence. Justin Sun invested $75 million. He was facing SEC fraud charges. The SEC dropped the case. He is now our advisor. These events are unrelated. Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to federal money laundering violations. He received a presidential pardon. The SEC dropped its lawsuit against his exchange the same week we listed our stablecoin. Then the exchange settled a $2 billion deal entirely in that stablecoin. These events are unrelated. Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed of BitMEX pleaded guilty to Bank Secrecy Act violations. All 3 received presidential pardons. Then the company itself was pardoned. $100 million in fines. Gone. An American first. These events are unrelated. Sheikh Tahnoun of Abu Dhabi paid $500 million for a 49% stake that was never publicly disclosed. Then the administration approved semiconductor exports to his companies over national security objections. These events are unrelated. Everything is unrelated. I track the unrelatedness on a dashboard I built. The dashboard has 7 columns now. I am proud of the dashboard. On May 22nd, 220 people paid a combined $148 million to eat dinner with the America First president. Over half were foreign nationals. Justin Sun paid $18.5 million for the first seat. He visited the Executive Office Building the day before. I designed the seating chart. I put it on the Investor Confidence page. That page is doing well. The team page lists 3 Witkoffs. All 3 are Co-Founders. Steven Witkoff is the President's Middle East envoy. He testified as a character witness at the President's fraud trial. His son Zach runs the crypto operation. His son Alex is also a Co-Founder. I have not been told what Alex co-founded. The father runs the diplomacy. The sons run the platform. The family runs both. That is organizational efficiency. Barron is 19. His title is Web3 Ambassador. The same as mine. Donald Jr. called the conflicts of interest "complete nonsense." Eric launched a Bitcoin mining company called American Bitcoin. America First. The mining partner is Hut 8. Hut 8 was founded in Canada. America First means the name. On March 6th, the President signed Executive Order 14233 creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The order directs the government to hold Bitcoin. The President's family holds billions in Bitcoin. The executive order appreciates the President's assets by presidential decree. I did not write the executive order. I made sure it looked unrelated to the portfolio. Trump Media put $2 billion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. The ticker symbol is DJT. His initials. The press secretary said it is absurd to insinuate the President profits off the presidency. Forbes calculated his crypto holdings exceed the combined value of Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower. I would call that absurd too. That is my job. 600,000 wallets bought in. 1 of them asked why she could not withdraw her funds. I told her the protocol was experiencing dynamic market conditions. She asked what that meant. I sent her the Gold Paper. She said she had read the Gold Paper. I muted her channel. Dynamic means the conditions change. The condition that changed was her access. A congressman called us the world's most corrupt crypto startup operation. We put it on a coffee mug. Ironic merchandise. $45. The revenue split on the mug is also 75/25. My own tokens vest on a different schedule. I wrote that schedule. That is not in the Gold Paper. The memecoin funds the family. The family funds the platform. The platform funds the stablecoin. The stablecoin funds the deals. The deals require the pardons. The pardons free the partners. The partners fund the platform. The President signs the executive orders. The executive orders inflate the assets. The assets fund the family. I am the reason these events are unrelated.

@TheStalwart More chickens, more eggs. 👏

Egg prices fell over 3% in March

Agree. Why did Trump threaten Denmark and Canada?

The Vice President of the United States is stumping for a political leader half way around the world, because this administration views Hungary as a blueprint for their own electoral autocratic ambitions.

This is one of the best things I've seen... Every single person you encounter is fighting a battle that you know nothing about. One tiny action can create powerful ripples that extend far beyond yourself. Create more ripples.

@DaveHcontrarian @k_valancius Careful not to equate dissent with disloyalty... the opposite of American tradition.

@k_valancius Why do you root so hard against the U.S.? We're dealing with Iran so we know we can't trust them, but it is far from over.

It’s over Dave @DaveHcontrarian

There is nothing more American than questioning authority. Blindly following a leader isn’t patriotism; it is a fan club or a cult. "To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. Nothing but the truth should be spoken about him or any one else. But it is even more important to tell the truth, pleasant or unpleasant, about him than about any one else." - T. Roosevelt (May 7, 1918) Public servants are accountable to the people, not the other way around, and real loyalty to the country means demanding that every "deal" and every decision can actually stand up to scrutiny. Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. 🇺🇸 #ArtOfTheDeal #Patriotism

@LizAnnSonders Hadn’t been thinking* at all. 😭 Sadly, so much confirmation bias and less critical thinking… thanks for your effort to share reality.

Had a short convo in airport yesterday with a guy who said, “we’re not impacted at all from the war because we are a net exporter” … I suggested that is a flawed argument given that oil is a globally-priced commodity and we don’t sell oil to ourselves at a domestic discount; not to mention that U.S. consumers and businesses pay global prices regardless of where barrels were pumped … oh, and, energy is an input cost embedded throughout supply chains … he said he hadn’t been thinking of it that way … hmmm

@dampedspring Ooh aaah strat on digital gold to digital junk bonds, it’s quite reflexive!

Full leveraged port long $MSTR plus $STRC. I see the genius of Strategy finally.

When an empire runs out of its own money, it is able to increase the supply of money. However, printing more money causes borrowing to increase creating a financial bubble. I urge you to watch “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” on my YouTube channel in the comments below to understand how, and what it means for all of us.

@fan_fintwit Sweet lips. Bravo! 🤩🤣

Trump's Iran Downfall