Michele Mancini

2/ We simulate the 2025 tariff shock using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium trade model calibrated to global data. It captures direct + indirect trade effects, supply chain reconfiguration, and welfare losses across countries.

📢 New @voxeu column w/ @fpgrafherzog and @AleBarbaBorin : Roaring Tariffs: The Global Impact of the US 2025 Trade War 👉cepr.org/voxeu/columns/… #TradeWar #Tariffs #Geoeconomics #GlobalValueChains #EconTwitter #VoxEU #USChina

3/ 🔍 Key findings: • US tariffs: from 3% ➡️ 38% • US-China trade ↓ ~90% • Global trade ↓ 5.5–8.5% • US welfare ↓ up to 4% • GVCs disrupted • Less efficient and more opaque trade system

🚨Curious about geoeconomic #trade fragmentation? Have a look at our brand new ESCB report! 📖 @mikmanc ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops…

A must read! I'm happy to share the release of a new ESCB report (co led by @mikmanc and Maria Grazia Attinasi) on the economic and policy implications of geoeconomic trade fragmentation. ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops…

Firms’ exposure to critical inputs produced in #China remains elevated, especially in #Germany. I Balteanu & A Fernández-Cerezo @BancoDeEspana, M Bottone & @mikmanc @bancaditalia @UfficioStampaBI, D Ioannou & R Morris @ecb, A Kutten @bundesbank ow.ly/hqKW50ROqzZ

Positioning in global value chains: A new dataset available for global value chain analyses dlvr.it/T5gLRb

A study on Italian firms reveals that disruptions in critical inputs from high-risk countries have substantial output losses in specific sectors & regions. @AleBarbaBorin, Cariola, Gentili, Linarello, @mikmanc, Padellini, @LudovicPanon, Sette @bancaditalia ow.ly/UE9R50Qvmhp

Quantifying geopolitical risk: new evidence @voxeu 🔗 cepr.org/voxeu/columns/… @bancaditalia

Michele Mancini @mikmanc, Economist at the Bank of Italy @bancaditalia, presents his research paper Trade Decoupling from Russia: Where Do We Stand? “Drop in welfare driven by decoupling is higher for Russia and East-EU,” he said. @EBRD @cepr_org #GeopoliticsOfTrade

Insights on the impact of trade bans on #Russian imports using a unique dataset of #EU trade restrictions @AleBarbaBorin, G Cappadona, @fpgrafherzog @bancaditalia, @ben_hilgenstock @KSE_Institute, @itskhoki @UCLA, @mikmanc, @mironov_fm, @elinaribakova @IIF ow.ly/y85p50Ozx2E

Deep data dive at @voxeu . Are sanctions limiting exports to Russia? Yes. Very much so. 1/ 🇪🇺🇷🇺 @elinaribakova @mironov_fm @itskhoki cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…

@IikkaKorhonen @voxeu @elinaribakova @mironov_fm @itskhoki Thanks for sharing our piece Iikka! FYI we have also used these sanctions data we collected to simulate their long run impact on Russia, here sciencedirect.com/science/articl… @AleBarbaBorin @fpgrafherzog

Please, read our recent paper on the Russian sanctions The impact of EU sanctions on Russian imports cepr.org/voxeu/columns/… Joint with @mikmanc, @alebarbaborin, @fpgrafherzog @ben_hilgenstock @elinaribakova @mironov_fm @itskhoki

Two birds with one stone! Check out our @voxeu column on the role of international tensions in shaping #asylum policies in the #EU. @BaldwinRE I'm also happy to share that this paper just got published in the European Economic Review! 1/2

Counterfactual analysis of the impact of #sanctions on #Russia reveals imports have fallen significantly - especially flows from sanctioning countries - drastically hitting critical, high-tech sectors. @AleBarbaBorin, @fpgrafherzog, @mikmanc @bancaditalia ow.ly/QzFl50LyKEu

Despite modest share of #Russia & #Ukraine in #GlobalTrade, ramifications for global activity sizeable as both are among top exporters of #energy products & raw materials. M G Attinasi, @RinaldGerinovic, V Gunnella, @mikmanc @bancaditalia, L Metelli @ecb ow.ly/p42150Jy1o8

This week, Denmark, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands committed to turn the North Sea into a "green power plant" by building artificial islands where wind energy could be turned into hydrogen and electricity. Few points on this fascinating - and a bit futuristic - project.🧵1/

By working out the relative effects of a domestic #demand shock versus those of a #GVC-related demand shock, @AleBarbaBorin, @mikmanc @bancaditalia, @DariaTaglioni @WorldBank, demonstrate in 5 stylised facts that GVC participation reduces exposure to #risk ow.ly/P6ck50I9spm

Does GVC integration increase countries’ risk exposure? Some new insights in our fresh off the press @voxeu column with @mikmanc and @DariaTaglioni