
Mille
5.1K posts

Mille
@milleniusz
Tech, politics, radical honesty, liberty, and enlightenment. Analytical idealism (check it). Pulling on space-time fabric ever so lightly (unless pissed).







Dobra powiem to, bo i tak ten absurdalny stan rzeczy długo nie potrwa. Właściwą ścieżką dla rdzenia Europy jest wykopanie girlbossów w rodzaju Grety Thunberg czy Kai Kallas, i znalezienie modus vivendi z Rosją, przede wszystkim dostępu do taniej energii. Nie chodzi tu nawet o odzyskanie konkurencyjności, a o powolne telepanie się tego skarlałego skansenu dalej, bez gwałtownego załamania kontrkatu społecznego. Niestety dla nas, to i tak nastąpi - jak nie w tym, to w kolejnym cyklu wyborczym we Francji, w Niemczech itp. Europa nie będzie miała ani środków, ani woli politycznej do kontynuowania bieżącej polityki. A że Europa nie ma też zdolności militarnych, aby skutecznie narzucać koszty Rosji i odstraszać ją, to znalezienie tego modus vivendi odbędzie się naszym kosztem. Odpowiedzią na ten problem nie są też Amerykanie - oni również uznają Rosję za zagrożenie ograniczone do regionu Europy Wschodniej. Przekonanie, że dalsza polerka zaowocuje tym, że jednak Ameryka nas pokocha i obroni jest strategią szaloną. Szukanie alfonsa przez polskie elity, czy to w Waszyngtonie, czy Brukseli, Paryżu, Berlinie jest nie tylko upokarzające, ale też nieskuteczne. Zamiast liczyć, że Ameryka i Unia będą naszym kosztem obsługiwać nasze interesy lepiej zacząć planować, jak się w nowym układzie odnaleźć. Jeszcze raz przypominam, istnieje zamknięte menu opcji. 1. Sojusze regionalne 2. Neutralność 3. Akomodacja 4. Nuklearyzacja. Uwaga: nawet przy wyborze 1 opcji niestety nie możemy liczyć, że ktokolwiek będzie próbował umożliwić nam realizację naszych marzeń, w rodzaju zlikwidowania rosyjskiej państwowości, czy wyłączenia Rosji z europejskiego systemu bezpieczeństwa/gospodarczego. Maks osiągalny, to odtworzenie stref buforowych (Ukraina plus Białoruś i państwa bałtyckie), sojusz regionalny o ograniczonych celach, oraz nuklearyzacja, żeby zabezpieczyć się przed zagrożeniami egzystencjalnymi. To jest niestety maksymalistyczny scenariusz, i powinniśmy również brać pod uwagę alternatywy znacznie mniej ambitne. Gdybyśmy, zamiast wierzyć w koniec historii, system NATO-wski i Artykuł 5, zaczęli się przygotowywać np. od wojny w Gruzji, albo chociaż od 2014 roku, moglibyśmy uznawać scenariusz maksymalistyczny za bazowy. Teraz jest po prostu źle.


Prezydent @NawrockiKn przemawia na konferencji @CPAC. Ile ludzi słucha go w Teksasie? Sprawdziliśmy na miejscu







I honestly don’t think that President Trump is suffering from dementia. I think he’s actually enjoying it.





Trump: You have to see it. It's very cool. Missiles launched, missiles launched, missiles launching. They're launching. Then at 7 seconds, fire, fire, fire. Fire, boom, fire boom



My favourite thing about Poland is that you don’t address strangers as “you.” You say Pan, Pani, Państwo (Mr/Mrs/+this plural I can’t translate): formal address is built into the grammar. Even in a shop, you’d say “Czy Państwo mają…” not “do you have…” and it isn’t performative politeness but actually structural respect. There is no casual “you” for someone you haven’t been invited to be familiar with. When I do this, people often rush to correct me or rather announce familiarity. “Oh, don’t call me Madame, call me Catherine.” And I’ll still address them formally until they give me clear permission to stop or until I decide I’m familiar and done with the formal. Pure elegance. The kind that assumes every stranger deserves dignity before they’ve earned familiarity. The West abolished formality for uhhh friendliness. Poland kept it bc respect.





No worries. Happy to try to make sure everyone has the facts. I make LNG. I like LNG. It is a pretty good and clean energy source. Like any energy source, there are tradeoffs, good aspects and potential drawbacks, places where it makes sense, and places where it does not. Without common facts, we'll have a hard time figuring this all out. I'd like to be a trusted source where people can get unbiased LNG facts. So here are some facts we are facing: - Overall worldwide LNG market was order of 400 million tonnes (400 MTPA) in 2025, give or take a little. - Qatar produced about 80 MTPA for export in 2025 - near enough 20% of the worldwide total trade. - This 80 MTPA was produced in 14 parallel liquefaction trains, 7 in the North Complex (41 MTPA), and 7 in the South Complex (36 MTPA). - Most (~80%) of Qatar's exports go to Asia (PRC and India top recipients), with a significant amount also going to Europe. - There is some spare capacity in the LNG trade, mostly in other large producers like the US and Australia. The spare capacity is nowhere near the capacity lost from Qatar's inability to export. - Qatari force majeure in early March due to closure of Strait of Hormuz already meant there was no ongoing export. The facility was shut down without the ability to export, taking about 6.5-7 million tons of LNG off the market per month out of a worldwide monthly trade near 35 million tonnes. - When trains shut down for more than a couple days, the cold sections warm up, making restart an extended process. Even if the Strait opened tomorrow, it would take about a month for Qatar to ramp the facilities back to full production. - Iran's missile strike on the facility hit two trains in the South Complex, Train 4 (4.7 MTPA nominal) and Train 6 (7.8 MTPA nominal). Also the Pearl GTL facility. Damage is unclear, but Qatar has said it is major, and provided a 3 - 5 year timeline for repairs. The expected total capacity lost is about 14 MTPA (this is more than the nominal train capacity - most trains have a little spare capacity and run above the nominal production rate), close to 17% of Qatar's capacity, and 3.5% of worldwide capacity. There is enough spare capacity in the worldwide trade to pick up the loss of 14 MTPA, though there will be price impacts. - Assuming no further damage to the facility, if the Strait opens again to allow commercial export, the 12 undamaged trains will be able to restart, and ramp up to a capacity near 66 MTPA over a period of a month or so. The two damaged trains will remain out of service for the necessary period of time until repairs are complete. - I don't know what was hit in the two damaged trains. I'm looking for satellite photos, but haven't seen any yet with identifiable damage. But 3 - 5 years is a long repair period, and indicates either the warhead or the subsequent fire has damaged major equipment - the gas turbine drivers, the liquefaction compressors, the power electronics (for compressor VFDs), or possibly the cryogenic exchangers. No other equipment I am aware of has that long a lead time. - As mentioned, Pearl GTL was also hit, and apparently the entire production facility is shut down. This is an absolutely enormous GTL facility and its loss is a blow to Qatar (and Shell, owner of Pearl). Capacity was 140,000 barrels/day of premium light GTL hydrocarbon (straight chain diesel-like fuel), along with ~120,000 barrels/day of other products - condensate, LPG, and ethane. - One major blessing in this situation bears remarking upon - there were apparently no fatalities or major injuries in this missile attack. The Qataris should be commended in getting their personnel out of the line of fire. Here is a view from Google maps of the Ras Laffan facility, marking the two LNG trains that were hit, as well as the Pearl GTL facility.




SHERIFF: Tiger Woods charged with DUI after Florida crash, believed to be on "some type of medication or drug." Blew .000 but refused to do a urine test













