MiningAlpha

Spot gold is running way above AISC for almost the entire junior producer space. The market caps haven't moved. @fejau_inc called it on Forward Guidance last week: "these margins are absurd." Three that are actually pouring ounces right now: MKO.V — Mako Mining (San Albino) ALKEF — Alkane Resources (Tomingley) BGL.AX — Bellevue Gold (Bellevue) The margin is the story. The tape hasn't caught up.

@ForwardGuidance @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc The gold mining section of this deserves its own episode. The disconnect between spot gold and junior valuations is wild right now.

ICYMI NEW POD: Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom We Cover: 🔸 Buy or fade the ceasefire 🔸 AI eating software 🔸 Massive compute demand 🔸 Fed cuts, weak dollar, gold & more! @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:21 Ceasefire Reality Check 07:28 Positioning Fuels the Bounce 11:25 Can VIX Stay Low? 14:28 Countertrend Rally or Not? 19:09 AI Compute Still Leads 28:11 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 30:06 Fed Cuts or Wishful Thinking? 34:05 China The New Bond Haven? 38:13 Best Trades in This Regime 44:14 Gold and Market Manipulation 49:50 Buy Non-US Again?

"Gold in the ground is trading at a fraction of NAV." — @Tyler_Neville_ on Forward Guidance this week. He's right. Three names on our radar that fit the shape cleanest right now: • Ausgold (AUC.AX) — Katanning, WA • Antipa Minerals (AZY.AX) — Paterson, WA • Vista Gold (VGZ) — Mt Todd, NT Big ounces. Cheap tape. Margins absurd at spot. @ForwardGuidance @fejau_inc @qthomp

Out of 99 junior miners we've scored, only 5 clear 7.0 overall. The screener shows you all 99 — sortable by Geology, Technical, Financial, Jurisdiction, Management, Valuation. Free. No signup. Find the 5% that actually deserve the bull market. miningalpha.ai

The Newmont → Hycroft talent pipeline is a real signal. Operators don't move into challenged metallurgy projects without conviction. But Nevada execution alone won't fix the structural issue: $HYMC's deposit needs sustained $4,500+ gold to make the heap leach economics work. Talent matters. So does the rock.

GDXJ breaking out is real — but the junior universe is bimodal. Half the names deserve the bid, half don't. Out of 99 scored juniors: • Top quartile averages 7.2 overall • Bottom quartile averages 3.1 overall A rising ETF lifts both. The re-rating that lasts will sort them.

@kashyap286 Devastating news. This is the human cost of jurisdiction risk that no spreadsheet captures. We score 99 junior miners across 6 dimensions. Mexico-exposed names cluster around the same pattern: strong financials, hostile operating environment. The discount is real for a reason.

"9 confirmed dead, 1 missing" Vizsla Silver $VZLA (Market Cap: $1.15 billion) is a silver explorer in Sinaloa, Mexico. Mining companies in that area are told to "look the other way" when there is cartel activity. Investors looked the other way too, until the stock price started to react. The stock is now down 40% YTD and I still wouldn't touch it. I owned Continental Gold back in the day when four of their employees were murdered. That trade worked out very well - the company was bought out by Zijin Mining. What's changed in my risk appetite? Age. I'm now 37 years old. I don't care to roll the dice on binary trades when there are plenty of opportunities out there.

@Elysium_Equity The valuation gap is real but it's not uniform. Some juniors deserve to re-rate, others are cheap for structural reasons — bad jurisdictions, pre-economic deposits, or teams that destroy value through dilution. The opportunity is in sorting out which is which.

Long gold mining stocks — there's a significant valuation gap between current gold price ($4,700) and miner equity valuations. The catch-up trade is sitting there.

Three structural plays for traders who hold equities: Long US LNG exporters — this position doesn't care what Trump tweets at 8pm. The Qatari LNG capacity is structurally degraded for 24+ months regardless of any deal.

@dnystrom250 GDXJ inclusion is a real catalyst for $CNL.TO — passive fund flows are powerful. But the underlying story is even more interesting: Mgmt 8.5 + Fin 9.5 vs Geo 2.9 + Juris 2.4. Elite team with deep pockets betting on proving up a Colombian deposit. High ceiling, high floor risk.

Shares of Collective Mining rose after the company said it has been included in the Junior Gold Miners Index and that it was relocating its executive headquarters to the U.S.

@InvestorLensCA Jaguar is another case of the jurisdiction discount being real. Fin 8.0, but Juris 2.4 — Brazil's regulatory environment creates a persistent drag. Strong production numbers but the market consistently prices in country risk.

$JAG.TO — Jaguar Mining Inc. | Q4 & FY 2025 Results Canadian junior gold miner operating in Brazil's Iron Quadrangle, with mines at MTL and Caeté complexes. 📊 FY 2025 Highlights: • Revenue: $135.2M (vs $158.6M in FY 2024, -15% YoY — fewer oz sold due to Turmalina suspension) • Gross Profit: $72.6M (54% margin, up from 37% in FY 2024) • Operating Costs: $50.4M (-31% YoY — major cost reduction) • Net Loss: -$15.8M (EPS -$0.20) — impacted by $51.2M Satinoco-related charges • Adjusted Net Income: $18.5M (EPS $0.23) excluding non-recurring items • OCF: $18.5M | FCF: $13.7M (non-GAAP) • Cash: $66.5M at year-end (up from $46.4M) • AISC: $1,931/oz sold | Realized gold price: $3,421/oz → $1,490/oz margin ⛏️ Production & Reserves: • FY gold production: 40,254 oz (Pilar was sole operating mine for most of year) • Pilar Mineral Reserves +49% to 286,000 oz (P&P) after successful 2025 drilling • Total company 2P Reserves: 858,000 oz (+12% YoY, net of depletion) • 2026 guidance: 50,000–60,000 oz from current assets ⚡ Q4 2025 (disrupted quarter): • Revenue: $38.0M | Gross Profit: $21.7M • Net Loss: -$20.5M (EPS -$0.24) — $15.9M Satinoco charges in quarter • OCF: -$0.6M | Adjusted Net Loss: -$3.3M • Realized gold price: $4,170/oz — record high 🔮 Outlook: • All regulatory restrictions at Turmalina now lifted (March 2026) • Gradual controlled restart underway — volume normalization expected to improve unit costs • Paciência Complex restart planned for 2026 The satinoco tailings incident masked what was otherwise a fundamentally improving business — lower operating costs, higher gold prices, and strong exploration results. With restrictions lifted and turmalina restarting, the cost structure reset sets up 2026 as a potential rebound year. Watch for production normalization and whether the $66.5M cash position funds growth without dilution. Full analysis: investorlens.io/stocks/JAG.TO #TSX #CanadianStocks #Gold #Mining #GoldMining @jaguarminingIR

Hycroft is an interesting case study. Huge Nevada deposit, challenging metallurgy. $HYMC drill results from Vortex show 33.70 g/t gold and 2,890 g/t silver. But translating that into economic production is the hard part.

@northernminer @HaywoodSec This is the key point most gold bulls miss. A rising gold price doesn't fix bad management, weak deposits, or hostile jurisdictions. Out of 99 scored juniors, the spread between the best and worst is enormous. The bull market raises all boats - but some have holes in the hull.

Gold strong, but juniors must deliver, Haywood says Gold’s surge has boosted junior miners, but @HaywoodSec warns that going forward, only those delivering real results will attract capital. #mining #miningnews #copper #gold #uranium northernminer.com/news/gold-stro…

Which gold miners though? That's the real question. We scored 99 junior miners. The range is massive: overall scores from 2.0 to 8.5. Some "undervalued" juniors are cheap for a reason - weak geology, bad jurisdictions, or management that destroys value through dilution. The bull market won't save every name.

Overvalued stocks will crash and undervalued gold miners will soar.

If real rates do the same as in 2008, gold is going to double.

Which gold miners though? That's the real question. We scored 99 junior miners. The range is massive: overall scores from 2.0 to 8.5. Some "undervalued" juniors are cheap for a reason - weak geology, bad jurisdictions, or management that destroys value through dilution. The bull market won't save every name.

Management hiring is a positive signal. But Silver Storm's challenge isn't the team - it's the address. Our data: Overall 2.5/10. Fin 6.2, but Juris 2.84. On a day where Vizsla just confirmed 9 workers dead in Sinaloa, Mexico jurisdiction risk isn't abstract anymore.

We built a free screener that scores junior mining stocks the way an analyst team would — but covering 99 companies at once. 6 dimensions: Geology, Technical, Financial, Jurisdiction, Management, Valuation. Every company. Every score. Sortable. Filterable. No signup required. miningalpha.ai

This is the most underappreciated truth in juniors. Out of 99 companies we've scored, the gap between geology quality and everything else needed to build a mine is massive. Strong rocks with weak management, bad jurisdiction, or no funding — the graveyard is full of "great deposits.

⛏️ 40 yrs in rocks → most “great” deposits never become mines. 🇺🇸 Summitville — Rob 🇺🇸 Quartz — Rob → Bruno 🇨🇦 Voisey’s — Rob → Bruno 🇬🇾 Omai — Bruno 🇲🇽 Mulatos, La Guitarra — Bruno 🇨🇩 Shituru — Bruno 🇨🇩 Kamoa, Kipushi — Rob 👉 Metallurgy > size Respect to Robert Friedland 👏

Banyan's profile is interesting — no red flags but no single standout either. Yukon jurisdiction is respectable, management scores well, and valuation at 6.1 is above average for juniors. The "undervalued" thesis has some data behind it. Geology at 4.9 is where the 2026 drill program needs to deliver.

🎙️NEW INTERVIEW | CEO @Christie2Tara joined @RSDigest for a discussion on "Aggressive Drilling, Gold, Silver, and Why Banyan Remains Undervalued" ▶️ youtu.be/vivVAqYpH28?si… $BYN.V #GOLD #SILVER #YUKON

83.75m at 21.14 g/t is headline-grabbing. But $CNL is a "buy the jockey" story — elite management team backed by one of the strongest treasuries in juniors. The geology is still early-stage and Colombia adds real jurisdiction risk. You're betting on the team to prove it up.

$HSTR drill results from San Agustin are worth watching. But here's the tension: Heliostar's balance sheet is one of the strongest in the junior space (Fin 9.3). The problem is the address — Mexico jurisdiction risk drags hard. Well-funded company navigating a difficult operating environment.