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A Socioeconomist, Maybe
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A Socioeconomist, Maybe
@mkstanley117
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. Credit Officer. Observer of the game.
NY Katılım Mayıs 2017
286 Takip Edilen343 Takipçiler
A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
Computer equipment investment is part of the 20% of the economy that drives 100% of recessions.
That’s why it’s having such an important impact on the business cycle and recession odds.
Watch Cyclical GDP. Ignore everything else.
open.substack.com/pub/epbresearc…
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@DeepDishEnjoyer I can give you something to research about this if you want to talk offline.
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there is some kind of parasitic evil goo that has lodged itself in the discourse, watch your souls everyone
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@JetBlue - yo, what's the hold up?
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt
38 airlines have now partnered with SpaceX to bring @Starlink to their fleets, and based on my research, more than 6,300 commercial aircraft already have Starlink installed or are under contract to receive it. • American Airlines • Southwest Airlines • United Airlines • British Airways • Singapore Airlines • Emirates • Qatar Airlines • Air France • Hawaiian Airlines • Alaska Airlines • Virgin Atlantic • Lufthansa • Korean air • Air Baltic • Air Canada • Aer Lingus • Air Busan • Air Dolomiti • Air New Zealand • flydubai • Air Seoul • Asiana Airlines • Austrian Airlines • SWISS Air • Scandinavian Airlines • Gulf Air • Iberia • Discover Airlines • ITA Airways • Vueling • Brussels Airlines • Jin Air • LEVEL • WestJet • Edelweiss Air • JSX • ZipAir • Eurowings and no doubt more to come 😎
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@TiltFolio That's fair, and my intention was to provide another (hopefully valuable) perspective. I'm not a trader myself, but I like EPB's analysis and interpretations.
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@mkstanley117 Thanks for sharing!
Indeed this is interesting. I've played around with the idea of using economic data to predict returns in markets.
But in the end I found trend-following to be more robust. To each their own however, some traders are very good at using economic data.
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@TiltFolio - you might like this take.
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch
If stocks led the economy, they'd fall before recessions start. They don't. Going back to 1960, the median month in the 3 months before a recession is positive. Stock Prices As A Leading Indicator? Not Anymore: epbresearch.substack.com/p/stock-prices…
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@AgustinLebron3 i'll be honest this is not what terrifying about ai and we shouldn't scare young people away from generosity because we currently have too little of it as is
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This prospect is utterly terrifying.
A bunch of newly-rich young autists funding whatever parochial non-profit ideas cross their mind? Oh boy.
Consider the case of MacKenzie Scott, newly-rich due to marriage/divorce, funding an embarrassing set of grifty political causes.
Nan Ransohoff@nanransohoff
New blog post: The third wave of American philanthropy Hundreds of billions of dollars in new philanthropic capital will soon become liquid. The OpenAI Foundation holds 26% of OpenAI, worth about $220B at today’s valuation. Anthropic’s seven co-founders have pledged to give away 80% of their wealth and have instituted the most aggressive donor matching program for employees in tech history. How much does this all add up to? And how meaningful is that in the context of philanthropy today? I was doing some simple napkin math to wrap my head around the scale of what’s coming, and radicalized myself in the process. I had dramatically underappreciated the scale of the philanthropic capital that’s about to become available and the corresponding gap in talent and organizations that will be needed to make the most of it. This piece aims to directionally sketch the scale of what’s coming, the gap in operational capacity needed to absorb it, and what we can do to fill it. (Link to full post in reply)
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A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
The war will not be stopped. There isn't a peace negotiatior amongst all the nations that can stop this war at this point. It's going to get more crazy.
Pray for the innocent. Prepare for eventual backlash in your home country.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇱🇱🇧 BREAKING: Israel just launched Operation Arrows of Fire. Schools closing across northern Israel tomorrow. Beirut evacuating tonight. The IDF Home Front Command is telling its own civilians to prepare for what's coming. This is either Netanyahu trying to sabotage the deal, or he's trying to cause as much damage as possible before ending the war at Trump's orders. Trump can push for peace. He can't stop the next 48 hours.
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A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
🇮🇱🇱🇧 BREAKING:
Israel just launched Operation Arrows of Fire.
Schools closing across northern Israel tomorrow. Beirut evacuating tonight. The IDF Home Front Command is telling its own civilians to prepare for what's coming.
This is either Netanyahu trying to sabotage the deal, or he's trying to cause as much damage as possible before ending the war at Trump's orders.
Trump can push for peace. He can't stop the next 48 hours.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇱🇧🇮🇱 Dahiye is emptying out. The last time Israel warned Beirut's southern suburbs, they flattened them. People who lived through that don't need to be told twice. Source: WarFront Witness
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A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
Trading and investing in a bubble regime
1. Always own beta (doesnt matter much what kind)
2. With every ounce of your being do not leverage up
3. Overweight professional managed cheap trend following managers
4. Under no circumstances short the rally.
5. BUT most importantly do not buy the dip when the bubble has popped.
Excess Returns@excessreturnpod
"What I've noticed in looking at bubble regimes is strategies that work most of the time don't work as well in bubble regimes, except for one." "Your alpha is probably less than it has been because your sample set that you've used to train your alpha, train your mind doesn't include very many bubble regimes." Andy Constan on how active investors can adjust in a bubble regime.
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A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
Kids today don't understand how hard this original symbol went.
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A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
The bearish arguments are honestly all just so bad. And I genuinely tried to be open-minded and hear them out. Where have all the good bears gone? As far as stocks go, I’m not concerned about oil, rising bond yields or the Fed hiking. The “AI skeptics” really need to work harder.
Texas Oncologist@TexasOncologist
And you wonder why Fintwit is so bearish? In my podcast list (Thoughtful Money)…
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A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
🚨BREAKING: IRAN’S INTERNET BLACKOUT IS ENDING. NOW COMES THE TRUTH.
After 87 days of digital blackout, Iran is reportedly restoring internet access to its pre-January 2026 status.
That means the regime may be about to lose control of the narrative.
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A Socioeconomist, Maybe retweetledi
After reopening their stock market, now they’re restoring internet access. The war is over ✌️
Mossad Commentary@MOSSADil
🚨BREAKING: IRAN’S INTERNET BLACKOUT IS ENDING. NOW COMES THE TRUTH. After 87 days of digital blackout, Iran is reportedly restoring internet access to its pre-January 2026 status. That means the regime may be about to lose control of the narrative.
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