Mike Nan Manchester

Stanley Druckenmiller on contrarian investing: “The crowd makes 80% of the money 80% of the time. Then they kill themselves at the turns.” Contrarian thinking just to be contrary is a death trap, especially in bonds and currencies. Discipline, emotion control, and the courage to play big when the opportunity arrives. That’s the edge.

“If all the news is great and the stock is not acting well, GET OUT -- which is a pretty simple thing most analysts don't know.” — Stanley Druckenmiller

$ORCL down ~60% Is This Finally the Bottom? 🤔 Oracle has retraced roughly 60% from last year’s highs, following the broader software sell-off. Price now basing around 137 support. If Oracle posts stellar earnings next week with clarity around debt repayment, it could run quickly back toward 200, with a possible pre-earnings squeeze into 165. Recent News & Developments + Management signaling stronger cloud growth + services uptake + Ongoing cost optimization initiatives to improve margins + Strategic focus on high-value enterprise contracts + Debt repayment transparency likely a catalyst this quarter Growth Opportunities + Cloud & SaaS Expansion: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure continues gaining enterprise adoption across data, analytics, and apps + AI Adoption: Integration of AI capabilities into core apps and OCI infrastructure drives higher stickiness & platform value + Subscription Revenue: Longer-term recurring revenue mix improving predictability + Global Enterprise Penetration: Expanding installed base in international markets Trade Idea & Price Target ORCL 3/20 160C above 151 as an earnings trade Price Target for Oracle is 225 by the end of 2026 and a long term target of 350. Not Financial Advice, Just My Opinion!

You’re nuts if you think UBI is coming You think the American heartland is going to airdrop the laptop class free money after they gutted manufacturing and left these entire states for dead? Brother you are on your OWN!! Better start saving up

The longer I trade, the more I understand why risk-management is the key to success. - Risking 0.25% of your capital to make 25% is awesome. - Small losses can easily be wiped out by big gains. Just ones big winner is enough!! - Tiny losses have almost no impact on emotions. - The best trades work immediately. You don't need to risk a lot on them! - Draw downs are kept small (in my case max. 10-20%) and are easy to recover. I work with traders since years. I teach them how to trade and how to improve. The number one mistake I can see over and over again is bad risk-management. Very often when traders start to implement good risk-management, they start to make money and turnaround their trading.

$SNDK - these earnings projections are absolutely insane.

Lmao

Pretty smooth downtrend on the $igv I don’t know why everyone has to be a hero and nail the bottom but I promise it’s way easier to wait for the 21 ema to settle down and go long when it reclaims it. It’s $10 higher now, stop wasting your time.

Nasdaq down only 6% S&P not even down 3% You probably already lost 25% Imagine when Nasdaq will be down 20% Stay with index ETF. Playing with individual stock is a fools business and major destruction of wealth. Even mighty $AMZN is a losers over 5 years and $QQQ up 💯 %

@TheShortBear Hindsight is always perfect.

$SLV $AGQ $SILVER The morning opened with a clear regime shift. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair. Warsh is widely viewed as a hard-money hawk. At the same time, a U.S. government shutdown was averted at the last minute. Gold and silver had effectively been propping each other up over the past week. Silver looked vulnerable, but gold’s parabolic move prevented a breakdown, resulting instead in a double-top structure. This setup has historical precedent, most notably in 2006 and 2011. Quietly behind the scenes topping macro news added up: Greenland resolution, Tariff step back, FED chair hawk(ish)... As the macro narrative flipped, the “chaos premium” and “debasement trade” evaporated almost instantly. This came on top of rising margin requirements and billions of dollars in call options being offered throughout the week. With today being Friday, those call positions became trapped. Market makers were then able to delta-hedge back toward neutral by selling underlying shares. That’s when the dominoes began to accelerate. As silver broke below key whole-number levels, where the largest call strikes were concentrated, selling pressure increased exponentially. Billions of dollars in call options rapidly went to zero. The selloff intensified into the 1:30 PM window, driven in part by the $AGQ rebalancing mechanism. As a 2x leveraged ETF, AGQ must rebalance daily to maintain its leverage ratio. A 10% drop in silver leaves the fund over-leveraged, forcing it to sell futures into weakness. The “Kill Zone” (1:00–1:25 PM ET) is where the mechanics turned brutal: 1:00 PM: Order cut-off 1:25 PM: NAV calculation HFTs and authorized participants knew AGQ would be forced to unload significant volume. They front-ran the 1:25 PM window, stripping remaining liquidity. Silver didn’t merely decline, it gapped through multiple support levels. Selling pressure peaked precisely at the 1:25 PM NAV print. Once the mechanical rebalancing was complete, price finally found a floor.

🚨 This Chart Says Everything $SNDK has matched $NVDA’s returns in just 11 months after it took $NVDA 60 months to reach 1,330% as the memory chip crisis accelerates. This chart is insane.

Greenland is a sideshow. But there is signal. You should be asking… why is the admin willing to piss off the Europeans to this extent over something that while strategically valuable is far from a core priority? The answer is that the Trump admin knows something you don’t. They are going to be pissing off europeans much more aggressively over the next 12 -18 months anyways. Because they plan to enforce the transshipment clause in all those trade deals to force Europe to shut out China. And that is going to throw Europes economy into a tailspin. So what the admin is now doing is preemptively showing it doesn’t give a flying fuck about the “rules based order” If you don’t want Greenland in the hands of the Americans you clearly don’t take the long term threat from China and Russia seriously. And if that’s the case then fuck you. We don’t need you, Europe. And they are going to do a hundred things to show they mean it. Because remember what I said a year ago. Bessent wants to salvage the system. But if that fails the backup is the Vance doctrine. And that entails walking away and letting it all burn. When you start with a lens of strategic decoupling everything makes a lot more sense. 🫡

MTV officially shut down its 24-hour music channels yesterday. They ended their final broadcast with 'Video killed the radio star' by The Buggles, the very first video broadcasted by MTV on August 1st, 1981.

The S&P 500 has outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index by 34% over the past 3 years, the widest 3-year performance gap in history. The prior record was 32% outperformance from 1997-1999 which was followed by a sharp reversal and 7 years of Equal Weight outperformance.

One final thought on indexing most of your money: I genuinely believe it will make you a better active stock-picker. Why? Because you are less likely to be emotional, and emotions are the killer. You are your own biggest enemy, and you have no institutional guardrails to protect yourself from yourself A 50% drawdown on 10-20% of your invested assets is a scratch, not a mortal wound. You are less likely to capitulate at the bottom in this scenario. You are more likely to keep a clear head. Your financial life is not on the line Alternatively, watching 50% or more of your net worth evaporate due to decisions you’ve actively made has destroyed many a great man. You are liable to puke at the bottom, which has life-changing consequences. You don’t actually know your risk tolerance until it happens. Everyone has a plan until they are punched in the mouth Your goal is to build an approximation of the institutional guardrails professional investors benefit from, and I strongly believe that active stock picking with only a portion of your assets is a critical element of succeeding through cycles and not blowing up, or at least permanently impairing your ability to compound

It is unlikely that the market has established a low or carved out an effective bottom. We are not out of the woods. I have not covered my $SPY short.

Must read The 400% Man An article on Allan Mecham - a college dropout who went on to beat the market

I stole this idea and now use it with every single employee. It’s the best illustration I’ve seen of teaching someone to be high agency. It says there are 5 levels of work: Level 1: “There is a problem.” Level 2: “There is a problem, and I’ve found some causes.” Level 3: “Here’s the problem, here are some possible causes, and here are some possible solutions.” Level 4: “Here’s the problem, here’s what I think caused it, here are some possible solutions, and here’s the one I think we should pick.” Level 5: “I identified a problem, figured out what caused it, researched how to fix it, and I fixed it. Just wanted to keep you in the loop.” Using this framework, here’s what I say to every new employee… You will live at Level 4 from Day 1 and as we build trust you will rise to Level 5. Being high agency doesn’t just mean tackling problems in this way. It means your entire way of working should be oriented to being a Level 4+ employee. Plz feel free to steal it as well. And ty @stephsmithio for the framework!

This image was made by a neurologist from Japan. It remains still when you're calm, moves a little when youre little stress & mimics a carousel when under high stress. ✨🙌🏾💫