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monkey
1.8K posts
@Ezramn_13 I'm sorry he's already tied for 5th in the latest update. 🙁
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@Dat2UReturns @PeaerCeltics He was a beast, led the ncaa in points + rebounds before an injury took him out.
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@monkey97194614 @PeaerCeltics Still not better than Jake Stephens was at UT Chatt.
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@PeaerCeltics In the 2023 NBA draft, NBA teams with full access to film and scouts selected 37 players from college who have logged more than 1000 career minutes.
The latest formula using barttorvik data has selected 25 players who are real roster players, and 5-6 two ways. Not that bad!
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@PeaerCeltics *34 logged more than 1000 career minutes, 37 still rostered
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@PeaerCeltics @Dat2UReturns The number 4 player drafted out of college averages 7.3, you can tell me if thats significantly better.
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@monkey97194614 @Dat2UReturns Your number 4 averages 6 points in his career.
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@Dat2UReturns @PeaerCeltics Leg injury took him out, we'll never know 🤷♂️
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@monkey97194614 @PeaerCeltics Yeah, this your #2 pick from '23???
Your trying way too hard to be different and it doesn't correlate at all with actual NBA results.
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@monkey97194614 Do you have past years of this like for example 2023.
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Warriors targeting Simmons and Sexton, but had no interest in Monk.
Huh?
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@JackE_721 It's ok hes 10th when using strength of schedule instead of conference strength
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@monkey97194614 If your stat is telling you that AJ Dybantsa is the 12th best player in the class you should probably make a new stat
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@afuturemodern This is a quick top 60 using TruRanking's strength of schedule instead of estimating by conference. I don't know if the effort is worth it compared to general estimates.
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@monkey97194614 basically schedule strength. maybe you already do that
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@WillDroby @DBCJason I believe so, I can cross reference some with combine data when I look at wingspan.
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@Dallasite4Lyfe @DBCJason The metric is 100% flawed, but so is every metric. The goal is to make the best possible stat with the information I have.
And why shouldn't JT be viewable? Scottie Pippen Jr., Caleb Martin, Julian Champagnie were all deemed undraftable, and CHAWBPM ranked them all top 10~.
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@monkey97194614 @DBCJason I think that’s definitely respectable but inherently flawed no? JT wouldn’t even viewable in his current state
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@afuturemodern Original gimmick was that everything was derived from stats I can copy paste from Bart Torvik.
My next step is probably to find as much wingspan data as I can to include in the height calculation, but if you have any suggestions for competition level I'd love to hear it.
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@monkey97194614 very cool, but why adjust for conference and not overall competition level
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@justinherbeer 2021 didn't have any extreme outliers, but the top 5 still looks pretty good:
Neemias Queta
Luka Garza
Julian Champagnie
Trevion Williams
Scotty Pippen Jr.
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@justinherbeer Its fairly common in box score stats to see big outliers at the top.
All CHAWBPM outliers except for Liam Robbins have turned into real nba players.
These are Cooper Flagg, Clingan, Zach Edey, Keegan Murray, Tyrese Halliburton, Zion, and Trae Young, so 7/8.
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@monkey97194614 There’s a major gap tho from p5 to the next best 5. Seems flawed
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@justinherbeer Conference adjusted basically keeps the top 10~ conferences the same and heavily penalizes all others. Its meant to filter out big players in small programs more than differentiate between the top.
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@monkey97194614 Conference adjusted but WCC played at 2 😂
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@352cosmo Here is 2025 and 2024, lmk if you want more. Keep in mind this is purely based off of box score, age, conference, and height, almost every single "high ceiling" athletic prospect will not be found.
Notable misses are Castle, Maluach, Derik Queen, Jase Richardson.
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@monkey97194614 Or even go back to like 2022 just to see how accurate it is
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@DBCJason My goal is to look for NBA translatability using only box score metrics. Body is a big factor of nba success, "height controlled" is a scalar based on the player's height.
The formula update mainly was reducing the impact of 3 point talent on the outcome.
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@monkey97194614 What’s the rationale for height controlling? What was the formula update?
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