@Jclearfield2 @MrBeast How did you just fuck up the scenario that badly?
The more the Reds talk, the more it’s obvious they are just incapable of elementary assessments
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Moontes
15.4K posts
Ok, I'm convinced. I want someone like @MrBeast to do this experiment in one of his competitions for like 5 million bucks. If you hit red you stay in, if you hit blue you only stay if half the people also pick blue. What do people do with real stakes on the line beyond virtue signaling for the internet?
Covfefe Anon@CovfefeAnon
This twitter classic "red button / blue button" [everyone who picks blue dies unless more than 50% do; everyone who picks red lives] question is cursed but we've learned a lot about people since it went around on the timeline the last time First to get this out of the way - there is zero actual reason to push blue - none - there is no "payoff to cooperation" being modeled since the payoff on offer - not dying - is the same for both choices. The only rational reason to pick blue is that you *hope* less than 50% of people pick blue so you can end your life and escape the person who is putting you in contrived hypotheticals for his own amusement With that out of the way - what we've learned in the 2 years since this hit the timeline the first time is that many, many people are simply next token predictors and when they see this example they say they will pick the "cooperative" choice (which isn't actually that!) We have also learned that when confronted with the stupidity of this position, they will simply costlessly double down and "argue" about it forever rather than admit error Really, the question is extremely revealing
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@dannycantalk You will not find a single study that red will win this type of game theory
You’re just wrong
And in a sad minority
You’re welcome though
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Most people will press red in this scenario. You pressing blue will not change this.
In reality the scenario is: "If you press the blue button, you will die. If you press the red button, you will live. There are no other effects."
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@JustinMacmahan Why are the people random? And not someone you know?
Why is it only 10 million?
Having to change the question so drastically is a tell on what the correct answer is to the original question…
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I’m more interested to see the result of this poll than the original.
Red button kills 10 million random people around the world.
Blue button flips a coin. Heads kills 100 million people. Tails kills nobody
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@Snack_0verflow @dblblndradio @I_is_like_stuff lol
It’s a hypothetical question and your are already coping with your decision
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@dblblndradio @I_is_like_stuff Sure, but insignificantly increasing the chance of death does not equate to murder. If you pay taxes, you increase the chance that the weapons your country produces end up killing somebody. So are we going to call paying taxes murder now? It's just hysteria
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"Those selfish red button pressers wanna murder all of us blue button pressers!!! >:c"
You're literally free to not press the "russian roulette for me pls" button; no benefit whatsoever to partaking in this pointless gamble
Red: 42.1%
Blue: 57.9%
You can't make this shit up
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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You clearly don’t understand the question nor game theory
There are 8 billion people in the game theory
How many of those people are people that you care about?
How many of those people would you risk your own life to save theirs?
You’ll select red and then immediately pray you’re the minority
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@hardepenger I understand the question for one. I also value living more than virtue signaling over something that isn't even virtuous to begin with. Inserting newborns etc. into it is post hoc rationalization, as the question is about people of sound mind (default assumption for "voting")
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@lporiginalg My favorite response from them is “everyone I care about would pick Red, I KNOW they would”
Just tattoo incel with 3 friends on your forehead
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You have to admit this is a hilarious tweet. Blue has won and everyone lives but all the red pressers are coping about their high IQs or whatever while having to love the rest of their lives knowing they would cowardly condemn their fellow man to death to save their own skin.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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Let’s just cut through it bud.
You’re a lonely guy with very little life experience and even less human connection.
My advice to you is… work on fixing that … life becomes more meaningful and exponentially more enjoyable.
If you get to that point, you’ll understand why your current view will always end in the minority.
Best of luck.
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This is the crux of the misunderstanding.
The questions is NOT whether you will save yourself at the expense of others. No one has to die in order for you to live.
This is asking whether you think people have the personal responsibility to avoid needless risk to themselves.
Strawbærry Narwhal ‽↙↙↙@unvarnishedvoid
@NCyotee there is no emotional blackmail there is no communication between people. this isnt a suicide. and any rewording to make it so kills the original experiment. its simply asking if you would save yourself at the expense of others or if you would save others.
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@InterspeciesFa1 @NCyotee Oh sorry, I see you’re having trouble with understanding the question again.
I’ll slow down.
How many people, approximately, would you risk your life to save?
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@moontes13 @NCyotee There is no one I care about who would pick blue.
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@InterspeciesFa1 @NCyotee You only have friends you would save?
No family?
No kids? No parents? No Grandparents? No siblings?
How many friends are we talking about here?
I get that the questions are hard for you to answer correctly, but I asked for a number.
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@moontes13 @NCyotee I would risk my life to save my friends, but they're all red voters, so I don't need to.
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@InterspeciesFa1 @NCyotee Let me try again, since I can see you need some hand holding in this.
1) there is no pressuring, otherwise it isn’t game theory … you decide for yourself that’s it
2) how many people do you know personally that you would risk your life to save theirs? Zero? 1? 10? 100? 1000?
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@moontes13 @NCyotee I vote red to live in the world of red voters, and to not kill the people they care about. Which is me. You can join a suicide pact if you like, but I will not contribute to pressuring others to join it.
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@InterspeciesFa1 @NCyotee Incorrect.
Try again.
You said voting Blue is a vote in which the individual is OK (happy) with 4 billion deaths
Voting Blue is risking a single life in the hopes that it would: 1) save as many as 4 billion lives and 2) save their own
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@moontes13 @NCyotee Blue isn't guaranteed to win. Picking blue could just add another corpse to the pile. In many circumstances, the best way to minimize death is to not kill yourself.
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@InterspeciesFa1 @NCyotee Let’s hear it bud…
Lay it out for the class
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@moontes13 @NCyotee If you pick blue, you're fine with roughly 4 billion deaths too.
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@RealDianeYap New rules of the game for you
Same premise, but instead of everyone on earth, it’s 100 of the people you care about the most in the world plus you
Are you going Blue to get to 51 or you going Red?
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@SonnyBunch What’s the probability of everyone pressing red?
Vs what is the probability of 50.1% of people pressing blue?
Congrats you’re no longer on square zero of game theory
Let me know if you need additional help getting to square two
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So if everyone presses red the survival rate is 100%?
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@MN_Vikings_Pete @gfodor The people choosing blue are not the ones bad at game theory…
Not understanding game theory most elementary aspects of game theory is why we are a society of 25%+ red voters
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@jon_stokes BINGO
You are voting to KILL someone you love
This would be 75% blue in real life
And only losers voting red
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What's interesting to me about this is that I pressed "red" b/c that was the correct answer to an internet poll, But I knew if it was real I'd have to press blue b/c my wife & at least 1 (maybe all 3) of my daughters would hit blue. I guess IDC about the rest of the world.
Dr Kareem Carr@kareem_carr
If you press blue, the worst case is you die. If you press red, the worst case is you took part in an action that killed just under half of humanity. Clicking blue minimizes the worst-case moral injury. It says you’d rather die than risk contributing to the death of another.
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“Oh I pressed the kill myself button so now you also have to press the kill yourself button to save me from my decision 🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺”
Just don’t press the god damn kill yourself button???
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@BobMurphyEcon This actually changes the entire game theory
It’s a different question
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To show this isn’t altruism versus selfishness: suppose parents are required to push the button on behalf of their children who are 5 or younger. Which button do you push on their behalf?
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@redtachyon It doesn’t go “beyond”
It IS the hypothetical if you’re intelligent enough
Add to it “30% of the people I love will die because I didn’t think of them and voted red <to kill them>”
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