Morgan

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Morgan

Morgan

@mopaksus

Farmer, Husband, Father to 4, Homeschool, Cover crops, No-Till, Tillage, Field Graze, Kstate Alum. Agronomy Degree

Kansas, USA Katılım Aralık 2022
390 Takip Edilen739 Takipçiler
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Morgan
Morgan@mopaksus·
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Fringe Farmer
Fringe Farmer@DaveDejmal·
I need a case sprayer tech. Does anyone in central Kansas work on case sprayers other than Kan Equip?
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Ryan Heiniger
Ryan Heiniger@FarmrHuntr·
@OrinRomine I'm really confused. Your proposal is to kick them out of crop insurance and famr bill programs but then proceed to state it shouldn't have gov oversight? Isn't making them ineligible, more gov oversight? Please explain.
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Contrarian Dude
Contrarian Dude@gregm12·
@southbranchag @twotthree64 @shanaka86 We have plenty of grid capacity for charging EVs - they're actually a perfect compliment to our existing infrastructure which has peaky demands, and EVs are relatively insensitive to when they charge. Datacenters need massive, constant, firm power, completely inflexible.
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
A law written for energy independence is now the mechanism for food dependence. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates that 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol be blended into American transportation fuel annually. That volume consumes approximately 43 percent of the US corn crop. The mandate was established by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and expanded by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. It was designed for a world where corn was abundant and America wanted to reduce reliance on foreign oil. That world no longer exists. Corn acres are falling to 94 million from 98.8 million because urea at $610 makes the nitrogen economics impossible. The RFS takes its 15 billion gallons from a shrinking harvest. The percentage of remaining corn available for feed, food, and export compresses with every acre that switches to soybeans. The mandate does not flex. The biology does. Waiving the RFS requires the EPA Administrator to make a formal determination that implementation would cause severe economic or environmental harm. The process involves a public comment period, regulatory review, and potential legal challenges from the ethanol industry. The EPA proposed 2026 and 2027 RFS volume requirements in June 2025 and has been targeting Q1 2026 for the final rule. The rulemaking machinery was designed for normal agricultural cycles. It was not designed for a war that closed the world’s most important fertiliser transit route during planting season. Even if the EPA Administrator initiated a waiver today, the timeline from announcement to implementation stretches weeks to months. The corn planting window closes in three to four weeks. The legal process cannot outrun the biological calendar. By the time a waiver could take effect, the acreage decisions it was meant to influence would already be irreversible. The RFS is the transmission belt that converts a fertiliser crisis into a food crisis. Without the mandate, a shrinking corn crop would still produce less total output, but the available supply could be allocated flexibly between feed, food, and fuel based on market signals. With the mandate, 43 percent of whatever corn exists is legally spoken for before a single hen eats a kernel or a single tortilla is pressed. The flexibility that markets provide is overridden by the rigidity that law imposes. The cattle herd is at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry operations rebuilt from the 2025 avian flu but face rising feed costs. Dairy herds are contracting. Every animal that eats corn competes with a fuel pump that has legal priority. The protein cascade, from corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the grocery shelf, begins at the point where the RFS takes its cut. Corn Belt legislators who championed the RFS to support their farming constituents now face a perverse outcome: the law they wrote to help farmers is the law that prevents the market from adjusting to a crisis their farmers are living through. The ethanol industry will resist any waiver. The livestock industry will demand one. The consumer will pay the difference. And the EPA rulemaking process was designed for annual adjustments, not emergency response during a 21-day-old war. Fifteen billion gallons. Written into statute. Consuming 43 percent of a crop that just lost 4.8 million acres to a fertiliser price that originates in a strait the law never contemplated. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

JUST IN: The most irreversible consequence of this war is not happening in Tehran. It is happening in a barn in Iowa. A farmer is standing over a kitchen table looking at two seed catalogues. One is corn. One is soybeans. Corn needs 180 pounds of nitrogen per acre. Nitrogen costs $610 per ton on the CBOT March futures settlement as of yesterday, up 35 percent in a month. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria called rhizobia. They need nothing from the Strait of Hormuz. The farmer is choosing soybeans. Millions of acres are choosing soybeans. And once the planter rolls into the field, the choice cannot be reversed until next year. USDA projected corn at roughly 94 million acres for 2026, down from 98.8 million. Soybeans at 85 million, up from 81.2 million. Those projections were published February 19, before urea surged past $683 at New Orleans. The actual shift will be larger. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. By then the seeds will be in the ground. This is the transmission channel the world is not watching. A 21-mile strait enforced by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders just rewrote the planting economics of 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not through sanctions. Not through diplomacy. Through the price of a single molecule that corn cannot grow without and soybeans do not need. Now follow the cascade. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually. That consumes roughly 43 percent of the entire US corn crop. The mandate is set by the EPA. It does not flex when corn acres shrink. It is inelastic demand consuming a fixed share of a declining supply. When supply tightens against a fixed mandate, the remaining corn reprices upward. Corn above $5 per bushel compresses every margin downstream. The US cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low per USDA NASS. Poultry and pork operations face compression from higher corn prices. Feed is the single largest cost in livestock production. When feed reprices, protein reprices. When protein reprices, every grocery shelf in America absorbs the increase. This is the protein cascade. Corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the checkout counter. Each link tightens because the link before it tightened. The originating cause is a urea molecule that cannot transit a strait because a provincial commander’s sealed orders say it cannot. The farmer did not start this war. The farmer cannot end it. The farmer responds to the price on the screen and the biology of the two crops in front of him. Corn needs the molecule. Soybeans do not. At $610 the arithmetic is settled. The planter rolls. The season is locked. Israel just authorised the assassination of every Iranian official on sight. The US has spent $16.5 billion. South Pars is burning. The Fed is holding rates because oil inflation will not break. Gold touched $5,000. Bitcoin is bleeding. China is running exercises near Taiwan. Sri Lanka shut down on Wednesdays. And underneath all of it, a man in a barn is making the decision that determines whether four billion people pay more for food this year. He has never heard of the Mosaic Doctrine. He does not know what a sealed contingency packet is. He knows what nitrogen costs. And he is planting soybeans. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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VB Knives
VB Knives@Empty_America·
@sequesterador It's about 75% just a matter of genuinely not wanting to live in a suburb. I have some savings and a paid off very cheap house and cheap cars. But if I was instantly taken to $0 net worth, only change to my life would be needing to work somewhat more for a while.
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VB Knives
VB Knives@Empty_America·
I find the current year USA to be quite easy to live in. But I genuinely like outlying areas, cheap hobbies like fishing and camping, and don't have the physical look or vibe that gets you attacked if you leave UMC bubble. I suppose we all live in different worlds.
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Morgan
Morgan@mopaksus·
@rfhirschfeld Potentially. Or we should have focused on keeping the products made in the USA
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𝓜𝓻𝓼. 𝓢
𝓜𝓻𝓼. 𝓢@smalltown_wife·
I had a roommate in college who CONSTANTLY thought everyone was staring at her (in a way like they were wowed by her) and that every man she encountered was checking her out. she wasn’t unattractive, just totally average looking. this phenomenon should be studied.
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Brady
Brady@BradyD78·
@GoddessofGrain As long as it’s a text, we don’t have time for a phone call right now …. we have wheat to top dress, if it’s still alive that is😉
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Angie Setzer
Angie Setzer@GoddessofGrain·
We should probably ask more people who aren’t farmers or working directly with farmers on decision making what farmers are doing
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Kazama-mama
Kazama-mama@kazama_mama·
@EruditeTogether @freeisntreally1 Books at home play a huge role unless your kid has dyslexia. Dyslexics need structured, systematic phonics. I thank God that our public school recognized this in 2 of our kids and they got professional intervention. They are now big readers (1 mostly audio), and both in college.
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Hannah Oliver
Hannah Oliver@EruditeTogether·
I am a Christian, and I have two daughters. Both my daughters attend public school. When my daughters were old enough to go to school I felt so much pressure from the Christian culture to homeschool them. I went to public school and had a really good experience, but everyone was treating public school like it was the devils playground. I tried to homeschool my oldest in preschool and I realized how terribly unequipped I was to teach. I didn’t have the discipline, nor the mental capacity to teach from home. I think public school is great. The teachers are all so intentional, the school counselors are lovely, and their principal remembers their names and things about them. We are very involved parents. We go on field trips, take them to school events, and go to all their conferences. Honestly, public school gets way too much hate.
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Ryan Bodyfield
Ryan Bodyfield@rbodyfield·
@kansasangus You are correct, I will replace it with what I raise this year. I get your point tho, my point is there should be preparations made well in advance of drought showing up on a monitor.
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Adam Jones
Adam Jones@kansasangus·
Cattle market is phenomenal but your area droughts out... What you going to do?
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Morgan
Morgan@mopaksus·
@Cornobbe Don’t think it would be -120 degrees….
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Morgan
Morgan@mopaksus·
Stupid question time. Why aren’t we strip tilling CO2?
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VB Knives
VB Knives@Empty_America·
@DFEmme42 It seems like many of those families don't successfully pass on the ability to make enough money to live that way.
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Morgan
Morgan@mopaksus·
@ExpatAftermath We’re at the point there’s a lot of dads that didn’t know how….
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BowTiedExpat™
BowTiedExpat™@ExpatAftermath·
Young men today can't change a tire. Ok, and did their dads try to teach them how?
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Morgan
Morgan@mopaksus·
Or maybe I should say just straight carbon?
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Morgan
Morgan@mopaksus·
@rhofford But I was thinking more compressed like anhydrous
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