Jason Moss

@ekwufinance US SPR and china oil stock drawdowns are absorbing the shock. Have a look at my charts from yesterday.

Oil declined ~$24 in anticipation of the MoU. Oil rose about ~$2 after Trump declared the MoU was over. Meanwhile, Hormuz transits have returned to pre-MoU levels. What am I missing?

The Moss Report pre-market July 13: What you absolutely need to know about the last 24 hours of global equity indices. #kospi #oil #spx

EIA's commercial crude stocks number still looks resilient, ~4% below pre-Feb. A real US oil supply crisis shows up here. #oil #wti

US SPR withdrawals have been cushioning global oil prices. How much further can this continue? About 12 weeks at the current drawdown rate of ~6.2M/week Here's the math: US announced an emergency release of 172 million barrels on March 11, 2026, as its contribution to a coordinated 400-million-barrel release by International Energy Agency countries. SPR near the March 11 announcement: ~415 million barrels SPR on July 3: 319.489 million barrels Net decline so far: ~96 million barrels Authorized draw: 172 million barrels Estimated amount still to be delivered: 72 million barrels Week ending July 3, weekly draw: 6.166 million barrels At that pace, 71.489M remaining ÷ 6.166M/week = 11.6 weeks That implies roughly 12 more weeks, or till late September 2026

@MarhelmData SPR release has an ~72 million barrels still to be delivered to hit the 172-million-barrel authorized limit, about 12 more weeks at last week’s draw rate.

Gibson: "Overall, the US has done the bulk of the heavy lifting in keeping global markets supplied through the crisis, but its capacity to keep doing so is diminishing. Should the renewed escalation in the Strait lead to another prolonged closure of Hormuz, the world will find itself in a much tougher spot. With global inventories rapidly depleted in recent months, this is a recipe for much tighter supply, higher prices and significant downside risk for tanker markets."

@RayDalio Caveat, also Dalio: “Truth, more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality, is the essential foundation for producing good outcomes.” and "create great decision-making machines by reflecting on the criteria you're using while you're actually making decisions".

You can significantly improve your track record if you only make the bets that you are most confident will pay off. #principleoftheday

The Moss Report July 10: pre-market briefing covering the last 24 hours of global equity indices.

The Moss Report - Pre-market 9 Jul 2026