Mrapps22

"So I would like to consider how quantum computing considers that any phenomena exist as a "quantum superposition" of states. In other words, a "situation" is many things at the same time, resolving itself only once it manifests itself in a specific context. Simplifying, it means that you can be both right, and both wrong, all at the same time. Keeping this in mind, a POV is only one projection of a multi-dimensional reality, so it becomes much easier to contain our irrational or overly emotional responses to a counterparty's POV when we do not forget this principle. Moreover, finding common ground and win-win solutions is so much easier with this approach." - Steve Krawczyk July, 2024

Tesla가 최근 Cloud Platform 채용 공고를 올린 이유가 무엇일까요? @Tesla의 특허에 기반하여 제 생각을 정리해 봤습니다. 😁 (hint: Robotaxi)

@GeneInvesting @JKeynesAlpha Where is the RXRX interview? Not here....x.com/GeneInvesting/…

@JKeynesAlpha Interviewed the $RXRX CEO on my Spaces awhile back. Recording available on my pinned tweet.

$RXRX I’m skeptical of this name, but I’d like to hear the most robust and smartest bull cases out there. Hit it in the comments below.

FROM CHINA: Tesla's Optimus Robot Will Be Made Using Magnesium❗️ What are the implications? 🤔 1) Weight Reduction: Magnesium is approximately 30% lighter than aluminum. Given that Optimus weighs between 60-70 kg, employing magnesium alloy could potentially decrease the robot's weight by around 10%. This reduction would also enhance the robot's agility and speed. 2) Weight reduction and efficiency improvement will not be linear. Magnesium will be used in the housings for actuators and joints (other than internal body frame imo). Assuming a total mass reduction of 10%, the energy needed to move the lighter limbs might decrease by more than 15%. 3) Magnesium's higher thermal conductivity than aluminum means it can dissipate heat more efficiently. This property is crucial for maintaining lower operating temperatures in the actuators, potentially leading to longer life spans and better overall performance. 4) There is no US made magnesium today, although efforts are underway to re-establish a domestic supply chain, see @magratheametals. In the interim, all magnesium for Optimus will come from China. 5) In December in China, magnesium was cheaper than aluminum, with prices at *19,000 yuan per ton for magnesium compared to 21,000 yuan per ton for aluminum*. Additionally, manufacturing techniques like thixomolding could further drive down production costs. *Note that at the pure price level, magnesium is cheaper than aluminum when the price ratio Mg/Al is below 1.57 (because Mg is less dense). Now the Mg/Al price ratio is 0.90 in China! Tesla adopting magnesium for Optimus is being reported as a fact in China. It appears that Western media outlets don't understand what the implications are.

PROJECT STARGATE ENERGY ANALYSIS Project Stargate is going to need an enormous amount of power: each of the five Stargates needs about 5 gigawatts (about five million people's worth) of constant electricity for each ~$100b supercomputer project. Let's break it down. Each center will want at least 6 GW of firm capacity available, minimum, at all times. I expect total power costs to run (very roughly) $4 billion per year per Stargate, or about $100 per MWh. For reference, Microsoft is paying a bit more than $100/MWh to get 17% of one Stargate's-worth from restarting Three Mile Island. This price will allow for building new power plants and securing power from old ones. This is going to start as a natural gas and coal play. New natural gas turbines from GE-Vernova and others will be the backbone of this effort for the short and medium term. Combined cycle natural gas plants use a natural gas-burning turbine (much like what powers jetliners), but with the hot turbine exhaust directed onto pipes filled with water, which boils into steam and runs a steam turbine. Combining the gas turbine and the steam turbine gets you above 60% efficiency converting fossil heat into electrical power. Five GW of efficient gas turbines will need about 0.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) or 7 billion cubic meters (7 bcm) per year, just under 1% of the USA's current daily production of natural gas. Five of these 5GW centers would require about 4% of America's current natural gas production, if totally fueled by gas. America currently exports about 10% of its natural gas production. If you are wondering why the "Energy Emergency" Executive Order, here it is: we can't increase gas exports to Europe and Asia while powering Project Stargate without natural gas price increases for Americans, unless we also increase and maintain that increase of natural gas production. Which in turn means we need to expand exploration and drilling straight away, to have the gas in a few years. A number of coal plants will get a new lease on life, to provide replacement power for the grid, because power from nuclear, gas, and coal plants located close to a new Stargate cluster will be redirected to these centers instead of their existing customers. Because Stargate will require ultra-firm power at highly concentrated locations, renewables will probably not play a major role in directly powering Stargate except as an accounting fiction to "offset" emissions from the steady fossil power built for each center. So these companies may pay for some solar somewhere to be built to "lower the carbon" but it'll be even faker than it's been up until now. NUCLEAR STARGATE? Nuclear is 4 to 5 years behind where it should be for this exact moment. We can partially blame the companies behind Stargate because until very recently they had superwoke "100% Renewables" policies driven by their marketing/investor relations/ESG teams. China can build America's best large reactor design in 5 years, plus a few years before that setting up the power plant location. We have lots of locations more or less ready to roll for these exact reactors. Each Stargate would require 6, or three pairs of 2 GW reactors linked together by transmission lines. Existing nuclear can get small capacity uprates, and we can restart a few reactors in different states. That's not enough, though it will help a bit. Can we use small reactors? Well, the designs aren't ready yet, so even in an optimistic case we won't get the first tiny prototypes turning on before 2028, and as late as 2031. It would take 500 little 10 MW reactors running constantly to power a Stargate. It would take 5 large reactors. China will be building ten of these per year, year after year, by 2030. I expect Stargate participants to make bets on one or more microreactor and small reactor plays just in case. If we can get ready to build large reactors straight away, and if the US government supports with loans, we can aim to replace natural gas plants and retire the old coal plants ten years from now with new large reactors. To make this "gas first, then uranium" policy work, Stargates and their new gas plants will have to be sited near transmission corridors connecting them to nuclear plants ready to host new reactors. Each Stargate would require 5% of America's current nuclear fleet to run, but there are only a few clusters of reactors close enough together to power a full center today. More later.

Some European startup accelerators you can apply for: 1. Birdhouse – Belgium ($150K) 2. Antler – Europe ($120K for 10%) 3. Oxygen Labs – UK ($21K for 8%) 4. 1Kubator – France ($25K for 10%) 5. Sting Accelerate – Sweden ($50K) 6. Startup Reykjavik – Iceland ($24K) 7. Distill Ventures – UK ($100K SAFE) 8. Accelerace – Denmark (Up to $75K) 9. APX/Heartfelt – Germany ($50K for 5%) 10. Top Seeds Lab – Madrid ($50K for 10%) 11. Entrepreneur First – Europe ($80K for 10%) 12. Eleven Ventures – Bulgaria ($100K for 12%) 13. Chalmers Ventures – Sweden ($30K for $10%) 14. EWOR Fellowships – Europe (Up to $150K Investment) 15. NDRC – Ireland ($100K Uncapped Safe +20% discount) 16. Startup bootcamp – UK/Netherlands ($15K for 8% Equity) 17. Barclays Accelerator – UK (Up to $120K as an investment) 18. Yunus Social Business Accelerator – Europe (Up to $500K) 19. Katapult Ocean Accelerator – Norway (Up to $150K for 8%) 20. Bethnal Green Ventures – UK (Up to $60K as an investment) 21. Rockstart AgriFood - Energy – Denmark/Netherlands ($100K Loan) 22. Techstars Europe – Europe ($20K for 6% equity + $100k Convertible Note 23. Startup Wise Guys – Estonia, Italy, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania (Up to $30K)

All the startup accelerators you can apply for: 1. PearX ($250k-$2m) 2. Accel Atoms ($500k) 3. Antler ($200k for 8%) 4. Soma Capital ($100k) 5. Sequoia Arc (Variable) 6. a16z Speedrun ($750k) 7. LAUNCH ($125k for 7%) 8. OpenAI Converge ($1m) 9. Techstars ($20k for 6%) 10. Alchemist ($25k for 5%) 11. NEO ($600k Uncapped) 12. AngelPad ($120k for 7%) 13. The Mint ($500k for 10%) 14. AI2 Incubator ($50-$150k) 15. HF0 ($125k for 7% + $375k) 16. AI Grant ($250k Uncapped) 17. Betaworks AI Camp ($500k) 18. 500 Startups ($112.5k for 6%) 19. Entrepreneur First ($125k for 8%) 20. Y Combinator ($125k for 7% + $375k) 21. Conviction Embed ($150k Uncapped) 22. Founders Fellowship ($150k for 5-10%) 23. SPC Fellowship ($400k for 7% + $600k) (More info below) Who am I missing?

The Relentless Pursuit of Improvement With this statement: "All that matters is improving Tesla self-driving AI such that miles between interventions is >> human" Elon is touching upon a two things that are critically important to understand. 1) Keep swimming: When building something that has never been built before, you just keep iterating - you keep focused on making it better and better. Especially when human lives are at stake - if you have a robotaxi service and your self-driving vehicle has an accident rate of 2 per million miles and your vehicle fleet is doing 500 million miles per year, then you've got 1,000 accidents (with some fatalities). That's not good enough. If you can improve your self-driving system so that your accident rate is 0.2 per million miles, then you've got only 100 accidents - a 10x improvement. But what happens if your robotaxi service now scales up to 5 trillion miles per year and your accident rate is 0.2 per million, it yields 1,000 accidents. That's too many - the lawyers will be too busy. So you need to drive down the accident rate to 0.02 per million miles (a 100x improvement) - now the number of accidents is down to 100 per year. At this rate, there would be something like a 4% chance of you ever being in a vehicle accident over your lifetime vs. about 75% today. Now do you see why Tesla needs to build out more and more AI compute? They need to keep swimming - the race is never over! 2) If such a continuous improvement in technology is achieved, then the lowest cost AND the safest form of transportation becomes robotaxi and the stock price takes care of itself. cc @CuriousPejjy

Thanks for posting this @seti_park! It's interesting to see how crowded this area is. Most of the large automotive companies including @Ford @Waymo @Hyundai_Global @ToyotaMotorCorp and many others have been working on this tech since 2019. patents.google.com/patent/US20190… patents.google.com/patent/US20210… patents.google.com/patent/US20220… patents.google.com/patent/US20220…

$TSLA #Robotaxi Tesla's patent WO2023/163943A1 presents a system and method for automatically sanitizing enclosed spaces, particularly vehicle interiors, that can be shared by multiple people. The core of this patent is detecting the current environmental conditions of the enclosed space, generating a sanitation routine based on this, and executing it. The sanitation routine is designed to utilize various components within the vehicle. Key features include: ▫️ Environmental detection through various sensors: detecting temperature, humidity, presence of pathogens, etc. ▫️ Customized sanitation routines: generating appropriate sanitation routines based on detected environmental conditions. ▫️ Various sanitation methods: utilizing HVAC systems, UV lighting, steam generators, etc. ▫️ Automated processes: automatically executing sanitation processes when people are absent. ▫️ Adaptive system: adjusting sanitation methods considering external weather, vehicle usage history, etc. The patent also discloses a vehicle sharing cycle utilizing this system (Figure 11): 1️⃣ Vehicle owner's use 2️⃣ Environmental detection and sanitation after parking 3️⃣ Other passenger's vehicle use 4️⃣ Re-sanitation after passenger disembarkation 5️⃣ Moving to a sanitation spot for more thorough sanitation if necessary These features are expected to play a crucial role in Tesla's upcoming robotaxi service. The bibliographic information for this patent is as follows: #️⃣ Patent No.: WO2023/163943A1 🏢 Applicant: Tesla, Inc. 📋 Title of Invention: CONTROLLING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN ENCLOSED SPACES 👤 Inventors: Forrest Wen Liau, Jorge C. Fialho, Daniel F. Hanks 🔗 Link: patents.google.com/patent/WO20231…

We just signed an MOU with a global tier 1 auto supplier that's like, "Yes, you are correct. Magnesium is perfect for lightweighting EVs, and we need to lightweight EVs. We are going to develop new automotive products with you, Magrathea." Super exciting!

For those that may have missed my earlier posts on humanoid bots, here's a compendium of some relevant posts... a 23 part thread... 1) A deflation machine 2) An economic reboot 3) Humanoid bot motto 4) Bot napkin math at massive scale 5) Bot market vs EV market 6) Humanoid bots in warfare 7) A Zero-trillion dollar market 8) Bot deployments - fast or flow - does it matter? 9) Thoughts on humanoid bot deployment 10) How big could the market become? 11) Scott Walter defines useful work 12) Humanoid bots will address major labor issues 13) The advantages of humanoid bots 14) What could capable humanoid robots do for Wal-Mart? 15) Tesla bot thought experiment 16) Tax the bots!? 17) What could Tesla's Optimus bot be worth to Tesla working in their own operations? 18) A call option on the survival a business. 19) If you could buy a machine that could save you $615,000 over ten years, what would you pay today? 20) Bots for as little as $40 per day 21) Why should we bother making a humanoid robot? 22) A paradigm shift in computing platforms 23) Robots as a Service 24) Links to a few videos discussing bots...

Can AI rewrite our human genome? ⌨️🧬 Today, we announce the successful editing of DNA in human cells with gene editors fully designed with AI. Not only that, we've decided to freely release the molecules under the @ProfluentBio OpenCRISPR initiative. Lots to unpack👇

Can you think of any examples of very disruptive products that started in enterprise?

EXCLUSIVE: OpenAI-Backed Robot CEO Says Will Beat Tesla to the Home (Bernt Bornich 1X) 1X Tech's humanoid robot, Neo, promises to redefine home assistance by 2025. With a focus on privacy and real-world learning, they're aiming for mass production! @1x_tech @BerntBornich

@CernBasher @herbertong @LewisWithrow5 Great video, Cern. Can you provide a link to the video you mentioned on the (lack of urban planning) for how parking spots were allocated in the 1950s and 60s?

FSD FUD - Full-Self Driving Finally Upending Depreciation. What is your Tesla really worth? I discuss some thoughts about that with @herbertong … Featuring art by @LewisWithrow5

Share with me one of your favorite albums/artists that you believe are extremely obscure I’ll start: Black Knights - Medieval Chamber

How much does it cost to 51% attack Bitcoin and Ethereum? To find out, we simulated what an attack would look like. Our paper, Breaking BFT, was published today with some interesting results ⬇️ papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

@MatanaRoberts Don't know who you haven't heard of.... but I am digging Joel Ross - Vartha, Mary Halvorsen - Collapsing Mouth, Sam Wilkes - The 3rd, Cheikh Foot style -Santal, Steve Lehman - Los Angeles Imaginary.

I’ve recently come to wonder how “general” our general intelligence really is. Have been reading a couple of books that delve into the environmental pressures that have governed biological evolution (particularly An Immense World and A Brief History of Intelligence - both fantastic so far) and I’m floored by just how *insanely* fine tuned our information systems and sensors are to our environments. While humans have clearly evolved more generalized and flexible computing components than other biological creatures, I wonder if we’ll come to realize how much more “general” an intelligence can be as we experiment with myriads of different artificial substrate brains that aren’t beholden to relatively static biological packaging, the cumulative code of evolution, and optimizing for an energy scarce environment. I have no idea what the outcome will be but I have come to think we are way more fine tuned / narrow than I would have otherwise thought, so I now question that notion that we are the pinnacle of “generalized intelligence”. Curious what others who have thought more about this have to say!

Who is a musician you wish more people knew about? I’ll start: Fela Kuti