Mark Dowdeswell

Some #ComradesMarathon2023 statistics for all those of you with withdrawal symptoms (don't worry, next year's achey legs will be back soon enough). 16126 runners set out in the cold from the Pietermaritzburg City Hall this year. Some heard Max Trimborn's crow, some didn't...

My legs also feel stopped 1h56m17s into a marathon.

@Scienceofsport And (I think) that step change has been greatly iterated and refined. Go to a lab/test track with 50 shoe variations on a factorial design and test for RE. Iterate. Maybe you can make almost any individual a “responder”? Could anyone tell the shoe isn’t exactly “off-the-shelf”?

Personally, I think the 2016/17 tech was revolutionary - it caused a step change, in the range of 2% - 4% (more for some, less for unlucky non-responders). Since then, I think we're in incremental evolution territory. I'd be surprised if current models cut more than 1% off times

I have some morning-after thoughts on that 1:59:30 performance and the marathon generally, ranging from shoes to doping via fuel, so let's see how it goes. And we'll explore them (and your thoughts) in the next podcast. So here goes... 1/

@runningmann100 My five cents: no. The final cutoffs (at Oceans and Comrades) are very generous, and both races are big enough to not need to assuage the non-finisher. [P.S. I did think this year’s Sainsbury medals were a bit plain; they used to be fairly distinctive.]

FLOATING AN IDEA: #TwoOceansMarathon non-finishers medal I’m putting together a list of improvements and ideas for TTOM2027. One of them is to have a non-finishers medal to help with the heartbreak of those who go the distance but miss the final cutoff. I’d love to get your...

@runningmann100 @RaceSpaceSA Congrats, Stuart!

300th Marathon #ThrutheKaroo in Graaff-Reinet. Could not have picked a better milestone race – beautiful route, great tables & all-round excellent organisation. Huge thanks to @RaceSpaceSA who are covering my travel costs for this event. I am now off to find the local brewery…

@runningmann100 Nothing like hitting 40 to focus the mind (although it wasn’t enough to propel me sufficiently fast)!

@mrdowdeswell Looks promising for the year ahead. Here's an interesting stat for you... at least 2 runners earned their Double Greens at Comrades before their first silver (Keith Reynolds, who was also running yesterday, and Eddie Mouton).

Marathon #295 and 4th Mielie Marathon completed in Welkom. Thanks to Goudveld Multi Sport for another excellent event and for organising cloud cover most of the way! #RunSouthAfrica #mieliemarathon

@runningmann100 Eh. Had a mechanical at 30km (hamstring) but was fun before that; one of the last guys I passed finished in 3h03m so there are some signs. Weather was very forgiving. Drizzle the night before and that slight breeze helped a lot. I could imagine this could be a super hot run.

@mrdowdeswell You too - looks like you had a decent run! Was definitely the best running weather I've experienced in Welkom.

@runningmann100 Mexico City is higher altitude (~2200m ASL) and the course record there is Hector Garibuy’s 2:08:23 in 2023. *Mexico City is somewhat infamous for the amount of cheating there…

I chatted to running encyclopaedia, Cuan Walker, who was only aware of 2:11:16 by Ethiopian Asefa Mengstu at the short (so not legit) 2016 OR Tambo Marathon in Bloem. Keen to hear if anyone knows of faster 1000m+ altitude marathon on unassisted course. Photo: Danie van der Lith

Bennet Seloyi won inaugural Kimberley Big Hole Marathon in 2:13:22. The route is run betw 1182 & 1243m. I'm wondering whether this is World Best time at altitude (>1000m) on unassisted course? Seloyi is also current SA Marathon Champ after winning last year’s Peninsula Marathon.

@AlexKontorovich Since I’m “following along” and you asked (end of Level 2), I still gravitate to natural language version since: 1) familiar - how I was taught analysis, 2) mathematical notation has a degree of intrinsic aesthetic appeal, and 3) still grappling with applying lean syntax.

Real Analysis Lecture 2 is up. youtu.be/U2oCgeVgd9M We went over Newton’s computation of Pi, both because it’s super cool (first and foremost), and also because it’s a quintessential calculation encompassing everything that’s “wrong” with plain old Calculus, needing rigorous justification: - What does it mean for a sequence of real numbers a₀, a₁, a₂, ... to converge? - What does it mean for a series (that is, sequence of partial sums of some sequence) a₀ + a₁ + a₂ + ··· to converge, and can we sum these numbers in any order we like? - What does it mean for a series involving a variable, like a power series a₀ + a₁x + a₂x² + ··· to converge, and if it does, what kind of function does it converge to? - When can we interchange limits with integrals, like integrating term by term, ∫(a₀ + a₁x + a₂x² + ...)dx ··· ?=? ∫ a₀ dx + ∫ a₁x dx + ∫ a₂x² dx + ···? These are all exactly the kinds of questions that Real Analysis answers, but I find most presentations of these vital issues unmotivated. Hopefully the Newton example brings them to life...

@runningmann100 There is likely a strong selection effect here that explains this: you can’t finish with a fastest split late in the race if you’re DNF. I’d surmise that most of this trend will disappear when DNFs are included (or total numbers rather than % are shown).

I’ve colour coded the graphs to easily see the difference between first and second half fastest splits. For me, the most interesting analysis is how the slower batches trend towards having a fastest split in the second half.

#Comrades2025: Know Your Split (Fastest) When looking at the fastest split stats two things are clear: 1. There was a lot less congestion this year with the two-pot start system. 2. Most people ignore expert advice and common sense and blast out the gates.

@iCyclone Presume you’re familiar with Google’s experimental cyclone forecast model. Would be interesting to see how well it manages wobbles close to landfall. deepmind.google/discover/blog/…

@fijnmin I presume it was just happenstance but it is such an odd sequence it almost seems to be a vendetta.

@mrdowdeswell That is so peculiar. What is the context of this vendetta?

Textbook resolution of longstanding vendetta on live television.

Probably no one cares any longer but it is “Polly Shortts” and “Arthur’s Seat”.

@mshengulala There is enough space in the sun for everyone! 🤷‍♂️

@mrdowdeswell Every year during this time of the year we go through the same thing where there seems to be a competition on who will disrespect Comrades runners the most

This sentiment belies the facts somewhat. The list of top marathon runners that have won Comrades (without doping) is quite short. The list of top marathon runners that have placed nowhere at Comrades is quite long.

A run streak is a performance. (2103 days, 20003.4km and counting)

@CyrilRamaphosa Why have you been “standing by and watching”…for so long? 😔

The days of standing by and watching while taps run dry or raw sewage runs into our rivers are over. We will take action to make sure that right of every South African to quality drinking water is protected. x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@RoryPetzer Home Affairs are obviously huge fans of yours. #30MinFor5Min

CHAMPIONS! I have really bad news today. 🥹❤️🇿🇦🙏🏼