This market is starting to feel like early 1999, where the indexes ran up on fewer and fewer names. Of course, 99 saw one of the biggest rallies in history on the Nasdaq. And then, it wasn't so pretty afterward.
Historically, I tend to get cautious early. My hope is that we get a rotation into areas that have underperformed - like small and midcaps - and the bull market extends.
I always expect the best, but plan for the worst. One thing is for sure. My stops will force me into cash early enough to avoid any real damage.
In 40 years, I have never been caught as a bag holder in any of the 9 bear markets I've lived through. Praise the stop loss. 😇🙏
I'm old enough to remember investors' concern about the rate of cash burn at Meta during 2022, when they punished the stock with a drop of up to 77% from its peak, until Mark gave in and cut capex.
Now we are facing an almost identical situation where Meta has 40% less cash on hand compared to the peak in Q4 2024, yet investors are cheering Mark and the stock is up 45% (???). And we're talking about a cash burn rate that is much more aggressive compared to 2022.
Mark is all in on leverage here.
In 1931, a doctor discovered the real root of cancer and the world ignored him.
His name was Dr. Otto Warburg. He won the Nobel Prize for discovering something that should have changed cancer treatment forever.
@koyfman love the product. When can we expect real time or near real time updates for Europe? Many including me would be paid subscribers with this one change.
If you have inflation without rising asset prices, all of the following collapse or cease to function:
- The insurance industry
- Private equity investment industry
- Stock-based compensation
- Pensions
Asset prices must continue to rise.
For short periods, asset prices can fall, but the system cannot sustain long-term declining or even stable asset prices in an inflationary environment.
Unfortunately, the best way to increase asset prices is to print money, which also causes inflation, but there's a technique you can use to, sort of, get around that:
Quantitative easing.
Unlike with stimulus checks or government spending, quantitative easing drives up asset prices WITHOUT also causing CPI inflation.
This is why we had huge asset price growth from 2009 until 2020 without inflation — lots and lots of quantitative easing without stimulus checks or major government spending.
So that's what is going to happen.
Asset prices may fall in the short-term, but they cannot (without a total economic collapse) do so for long, so bet on them rising.
This is my breakfast almost every day at the moment 👇
- 200g skyr
- 25g whey protein (chocolate!)
- 5g cocoa powder
Mix together in a bowl.
43g protein, 241 calories.
Add your daily creatine too if you want to consume it without noticing it.
@Noahpinion Question - in that same time, US debt went up by 8T ( 22T —> 30T). Wealth of approx 130m US households going up by 50k is a 6.5T increase. Was this a massive transfer of value to households?
If you think the typical American is poor, or that they're living paycheck to paycheck, or that we're in a recession, etc. etc., or any other doom-and-gloom narrative, YOU NEED TO CHECK OUT THESE NUMBERS!
noahpinion.blog/p/great-news-a…
@michaelxpettis Find your tweets super helpful. Q - post plaza accord, yen appreciated significantly. Why didn’t that help in a pivot from savings to spending?
1/8
Interesting 1992 New York Times article on Japan's economic problems at the beginning of its "lost decade". It quotes a Jardine Fleming analyst as saying: ""The point was to unlock this tremendous pent-up demand among Japanese consumers."
nytimes.com/1992/08/15/bus…
Would you invest in this business?
Total debt: $31 trillion
Assets: $4.8 trillion
Annual revenue: $4.9 trillion
Annual Income: $1.4 trillion Loss
This is the US Government.
We're debating building our next Amazon FBA brand in public.
We'd document everything here & on Youtube:
- Why we picked the niche
- How we developed the product
- Brand identity
- All the finances
A full on live case study where we take it to 7 figures.
Should we do it?
As you scale up your revenue, you need to be okay with scaling up the waste that comes with it.
I just fucked up and that fuck up is costing my company our entire 2012 sales (10 years ago!).
It feels like a lot of money, but I need to keep it in the context of current sales.
@Molson_Hart Did you configure something specific or pay fora specific instance of chatgpt to get these results? For eg if I try the same q on chatgpt it doesn’t throw the same result- mentions it doesn’t browse the net
Artificial intelligence (AI) is going to REVOLUTIONIZE business big and small!
I run an educational toy company with 10 employees and $8.88M/year in sales.
Here are 9 examples of how we're using AI to save time and money.
🧵👇