Michael Serunian
2.5K posts
Michael Serunian
@mserunian
Reading your thoughts 💭 Focused on technology and investing in the future.
Bend, OR Katılım Mayıs 2010
979 Takip Edilen436 Takipçiler
"The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed”
Herbert Ong@herbertong
What a moment! Grok in the car just blew my wife’s mind. Just arrived at a restaurant and the car is about to park. My wife says “hey, I don’t want to park here” Grok (eve) replies (surprising her as she didn’t yet know Grok was on) saying “No worries where would you like instead?” So she says the next spot. And the car does it! Crazy. So many people will be shocked when they find out @aelluswamy @tesla @elonmusk
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I've been waiting for this day for the last six years.
The San Francisco Superior Court has just GRANTED Tesla's anti-SLAPP motion against my failed Tesla short seller cyberstalker, Aaron Jacob Greenspan.
This means that the court found his lawsuit was an illegal attempt to stiffle free speech. With this anti-SLAPP motion, the relevant counts will be struck from the record, and my Cyberstalker is ordered to pay all of Tesla's attorneys fees associated with defending against this matter. And Tesla's lawyers aren't cheap.
I have also filed an anti-SLAPP motion on Greenspan to recover my legal fees and eagerly await the hearing on December 4th.
Thank you so much to @elonmusk and the legal team at Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan for helping make this happen. It has been a long time coming, but justice has been served.
Aaron, nothing can take back the suffering you have inflicted on so many victims but I hope you take this moment to reflect on what you've done. You tried to destroy us financially, but only ended up destroying yourself. What goes around comes around.
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If you openly celebrate the assassination of peaceful political opponents, you're not a serious person. You have lost your humanity, and you are more a part of the problems we collectively face in the world than you are a part of the solution. Even though you believe, deep down, this not true about you. You believe you are a force for good. You're not.
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Like every Tesla investor, I’m curious when the rerate will happen too.
Tesla’s last major 10x rerate was late 2019 through late 2020 (which took a full 12 months to play out, with another 50% leg up to $350/share the following year).
That late 2019 move interestingly kicked off a full year after Tesla achieved 5k/week Model 3 production, making it through “production hell.” It wasn’t until institutional investors saw Tesla achieve profitability and true scaling (50% YoY growth) in the Q3 2019 earnings report that the stock started to really move. Then the herd moved in and seemingly overnight the narrative around Tesla went from impossible to inevitable.
I believe the robotaxi business will be a similar timeline, where the first 12 to 18 months after the June 2025 Austin launch will be the proof and business case that institutions needs to see (actual scaling cash flows from the new business) to rerate Tesla to the $5T-$10T market cap firms like @ARKInvest are projecting.
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TECH DEBT VS TECH LEAD
Tesla has an overwhelming tech lead; Waymo has an overwhelming tech debt. But yet, most of WS thinks Waymo and Tesla’s FSD stacks will magically “converge”.
SPOILER ALERT: They won’t. All the appendages (ie unnecessary extra sensors) on Waymo dramatically increase the complexity of training neural nets.
IMO, TSLA won’t rerate until WS gets tech savvy-or (more likely) when RoboTaxi is in multiple cities. WS needs to see RoboTaxi in action because they don’t “get” AI.
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2025: simultaneously at the dawn of superintelligence and idiocracy
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As I said it would. The rollout will be much slower than $TSLA Bulls expect. "Robotaxi" is just a distraction from Tesla's rapidly deteriorating fundamentals, as you know. Nationwide adoption is 5 to 10 years away, if not further. I'm open to be convinced otherwise, if anyone can provide data and a solid argument...
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Imagine holding $TSLA for 5 years while they developed FSD and then selling it two weeks before they launch their driverless rideshare service
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@vibester @parkerconrad @deel That doesn’t change the fact: you’re done after you do something like this, especially with senior leadership involvement. Immediate scorched earth loss of trust with all stakeholders.
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Rippling sued @Deel today. Our lawsuit alleges Deel cultivated a spy at Rippling & orchestrated a long-running trade-secret theft. The spy searched “deel” in our systems 23 times per day on avg, letting him spy on Deel’s own customers who were considering a switch to Rippling.
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@Jason was right when he said that to you back then.
You loudly announced shorting Tesla at $20 a share split-adjusted and would have obnoxiously danced on its grave had it failed.
But instead, when 15x’d from there to $300/share you backpedaled by downplaying your position.
Amazing to see you bragging about that both then and 7 years later now.
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On the @Jason getting it from @PalmerLuckey
Jason told me 7 yrs ago
“You should be supporting bold visions, relentless founders and exceptional exeuction, in the face of long odds and nasty incumbents.
You are a literally trader to innovation and the profession of investing. You should be ashamed of yourself.”
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Feels impossible for the MSM to spin this negatively… yet somehow they will
Department of Government Efficiency@DOGE
The Treasury Access Symbol (TAS) is an identification code linking a Treasury payment to a budget line item (standard financial process). In the Federal Government, the TAS field was optional for ~$4.7 Trillion in payments and was often left blank, making traceability almost impossible. As of Saturday, this is now a required field, increasing insight into where money is actually going. Thanks to @USTreasury for the great work. tfx.treasury.gov/taxonomy/term/…
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