Austin Mudd

Launching a free (commercial) real estate list of resources to the community here! 🙌 I've curated many of the best websites, podcasts, news sites, blogs, Twitter profiles, books, and more into a handy dashboard to reference Read more below! 👇 avm858.notion.site/Commercial-Rea…

@shawngorham Download codex and get the $20 sub. All you need

Ok.. Mac mini's are sold out, was going to mess around with some AI stuff... what should I do now?

Went to a lenders conference today and not once did I hear anyone talk about rates ripping higher What does that signal?

@aechlin @johnarnold fair! To me, sounds like a Norges bank style investment fund funded by AI (investments, related taxes, etc) would be proven model to help normal people from the "floor collapsing"

@muddsicle @johnarnold Small beans. He’s talking about taxing compute in the US which is absolutely massive and growing.

Only way to limit coming AI backlash is to start shifting taxes from labor to compute. The average voter needs to see salient benefits from AI. Today we tax labor > compute (income vs corp tax, depreciation for machines not education, payroll tax, etc). This will have to invert.

OpenAI image gen 2.0 is amazing but just tried it on as-builts and it absolutely sucks. not really surprised

@CohenSite Trees only grow so tall. The number of sites that are economical to build are exponentially decreasing (eg due to regulation and CA has matured generally), while the sites that can be densified have worsening negative economics to add density

It's pretty remarkable the extent to which apartment construction in LA has remained on a consistent gradual decline since the GFC recovery, and how TOC and ED1 have seemingly had zero impact on this trend

@jpsingaraju You’re still going to jail if you forgot to send this by certified mail to the Lakers management office

AN OPEN LETTER OF APOLOGY TO MR. LEBRON RAYMONE JAMES —— Dear LeBron, I come before you today not as a fan, not as a hater, but as a sinner seeking absolution from the only man in recorded history who has ever beaten Father Time in a game of one-on-one, talked trash during it, and then signed Father Time's jersey afterward. I have wronged you, King. I have wronged you grievously. I have wronged you in group chats. I have wronged you in comment sections. I have wronged you in front of friends, that "he's not even top 5 anymore" and I watched the light leave their eyes. I have carried that sin for months. Because tonight I witnessed a SPECTACLE. Tonight I witnessed a MARVEL. Tonight I witnessed a 41-year-old man, in his 23rd professional season, in a league full of genetic freaks who were in ELEMENTARY SCHOOL when he was already an All-Star, casually stroll into Toyota Center and remind an entire generation that the throne was never vacant, we were just looking at the wrong chair. I was a doubter. Say it with me. I. Was. A. Doubter. I said "the minutes are down." I said "the burst isn't there." I said "he's a compiler now" as if compiling 40,000 points is something you can do by accident, as if I could compile a grocery list without forgetting the eggs. I watched this man drop 19-8-13 in Game 1 with EIGHT assists in the FIRST QUARTER and I said "yeah but can he score?" I watched him go 28-8-7 in Game 2, strangle Kevin Durant to three second-half points, get to the line 14 times, throw down a two-handed dunk with 55 seconds left to seal it, and become THE ONLY PLAYER OVER 40 TO LEAD A PLAYOFF RUN IN POINTS, REBOUNDS, AND ASSISTS; and I, a clown, a fool, a man with functioning eyeballs and a functioning brain refusing to speak to each other. I said "let's see Game 3." Well. I saw Game 3. Let's talk about the last 26 seconds. Let's sit with the last 26 seconds. Let's LIVE in the last 26 seconds, because I will be living there, rent-free, for the remainder of my natural life. They were up SIX. Six points. In TWENTY-SIX seconds. That is a possession and change. That is a timeout and a commercial break. That is the window between "I should order food" and "never mind I'll just eat cereal." Toyota Center was SHAKING. The crowd was on its feet. The Rockets bench was already doing that little celebratory bounce, that premature bounce, that bounce that says "we got it." Somewhere in Houston, a man was pulling a Bud Light out of the fridge. Somewhere in Houston, a woman was texting her husband "told you." Somewhere in Houston, a child was being lifted onto his father's shoulders. The building was BOOKED. The building was CLOSED. The building was, as far as every person in it was concerned, a W. And then LeBron looked at the scoreboard. And then LeBron looked at the clock. And then LeBron decided, in what I can only describe as a cosmic, galaxy-brain, Men-in-Black-neuralyzer moment, that this was not going to be how the evening ended for any of us. What followed was not basketball. It was an exorcism. It was a man methodically walking through a haunted house turning off the lights one by one. Steal. Three. Somewhere in there a pass so audacious I started shaking in a hot room. The Toyota Center crowd went from LOUDEST BUILDING IN AMERICA to a library to a funeral to one of those silent monasteries where monks take a vow and only communicate through bells. You could hear the HVAC system. You could hear a Rockets fan, three rows up, whisper "no." You could hear the ghost of Hakeem Olajuwon apologize to the city on LeBron's behalf. Twenty-six seconds. SIX POINTS. He did not close the gap. He did not tie the game. He OPENED the gap in the other direction. He took the Rockets' lead, folded it in half, folded it in half again, and put it in his pocket like a receipt he might need for taxes. The scoreboard operator had to Ctrl+Z his entire career. The broadcast director cut to Austin Reaves on the bench and Austin Reaves had the face of a man who has just seen God and is slightly annoyed he didn't get a heads up. I watched it happen. I watched it happen LIVE. I have to be honest with you, I have to be honest with myself, I have to be honest with the NBA league office, the Basketball Hall of Fame, and God Almighty: I am not okay. I have not been okay since he hit the three. Archaeologists will one day unearth my twitter post and carbon-date it to "the night LeBron did the thing." Six points. Twenty-six seconds. A team, a building, a city, a narrative: dismantled. Not beaten. DISMANTLED. Taken apart piece by piece like IKEA furniture in reverse. The Rockets did not lose that game. They were disassembled on live television and shipped back to the warehouse with a note that said "return to sender, 41-year-old in aisle." So here, formally, in writing, with my full legal name attached and a witness present, is my apology: I, Jathin Pranav Singaraju, of sound mind and recently shattered worldview, do hereby and forever APOLOGIZE to LeBron Raymone James Sr. for every slanderous, disrespectful, hot-taking, podcast-brained, Twitter-poisoned, bad-faith, Jordan-stan-adjacent, ring-culture-addled, "he had help," "he left Cleveland," "he left Cleveland again," "the Heatles," "the block was a travel," "Kawhi did it with less," "MJ went 6-0," "but the 73-win Warriors," "but the 3-1 lead," "but load management," "but the minutes restriction," "but the Lakers are a play-in team," "but he can't close anymore," "but he's a regular season guy now," "but but but" — take that I have ever uttered, thought, liked, retweeted, or silently agreed with in my heart. I renounce them. All of them. I renounce them in this life and, should the technology become available, the next. I will never doubt you again. Not in this series. Not in this playoff run. Not in this career. Not in any GOAT debate, at any bar, in any group chat, at any wedding, at any funeral, at any deposition. If you come back next year at 42 averaging a 30-point triple-double I will not be surprised. If you come back at 45 coaching yourself I will not be surprised. If you are inducted into the Hall of Fame and then UN-inducted because you are somehow still playing I will not be surprised. If you erase a six-point deficit in twenty-six seconds again next week, on a Tuesday, against a random team, for no reason, just to remind us. I will not be surprised. The bar is on the floor. The bar is underground. The bar is in the Mariana Trench. The bar has achieved enlightenment and moved on. I am sorry, King. I am so, so sorry. I was wrong. The throne was never empty. Long live the King.

@thsottiaux image gen tool is awesome for iterating quickly on UI/wireframes. Would be nice to be able to have a better image previewer to blow the image up to full size and be able to zoom, comment it on it like react-grab and pass comments back

It’s the little things that matter, what are some small papercuts you have noticed in Codex? We’ll fix as many as possible in the next week.

@EricLawCapt yeah dude, those greedy developers who are planning to build $600,000,000 of affordable housing are SO evil i won't be satisfied unless they are building $10 zillion dollars of affordable housing units /s

Midway Rising violates San Diego code and CEQA. It prioritizes building luxury apartment skyscrapers over the affordable housing. Its lead investor gave $100k to Gloria’s campaign. Got it yet?

@harryh @mattyglesias Wait what

A major source dogs in unwanted spaces is that the ADA has made it effectively illegal for businesses to police their own spaces. There are a very limited number of questions an employee can ask about an animal and nothing the business can do if a pet owner lies, even blatantly. It’s a real problem. See Q7 here: ada.gov/resources/serv…

@shawngorham are there only 6 characters on that front license plate? looks off

Remember our car accident 10+ weeks ago? Guess what? They didnt have insurance, shocker No Habla English, one of the passengers (prob driver) disappeared from the scene. They gave the police a fake insurance card No accountability, no consequence We were just sitting at a red light. Wife had a concussion and back pain for 6 weeks Our car, which MY insurance is paying $18,000 to fix (won't total it) has now lost half its value due to an accident See this homie with the mask? He disappeared before the police showed up left a lady behind. So we take a loss, my wife is hurt, my insurance will pay up but of course raise my rates to cover it and the other party just gets to walk away with a totaled cheap ass car. Pisses me off - if I tried to pull that shit off I would prob be arrested.

@KanaPalapala @Justin_G0rd0n it takes about 3-6 years from beginning to end to begin housing 1 human being Those projects were started interest rates were the lowest they ever have been

How can the far left ever be trusted in LA again? They screamed about a housing and affordability crisis while pushing through an Apartment Tax (ULA), which led developers to build everywhere but LA! In other words, housing crisis + no new building = worse housing crisis.

@connorclift35 I'm tracking an off-market high end for sale project, multiple lots probably $30-40M+ in cost best of the best location if they can go that large and want to chat

Talked to a builder yesterday who has built in LA for 25 years with his dad. Due to the current political and regulatory climate, this next project will be his last in LA County. He will be taking his talent down to OC. Don’t see this trend reversing anytime soon.

@luke_metro I just sent this to a seller who's been sitting on their butts Most of the housing stock in LA is older, rent controlled buildings which are down 30-40% and still declining

has every Los Angeles real estate guy become radicalized or is this just a Twitter phenomenon

@wong_guey It’s totally cool though if the city kicks out homeless tenants out to the street wit 30 minutes notice! Must be nice to be able to enforce city property owned rules but not private landlord rules

This is the kind of mindless "tenant rights" BS that Nithya Raman is pushing for more of. She wants to stand up a whole new $100 million a year bureaucracy to enforce this type of housing-killing, idiotic rules. This is why Nithya Raman is bad for housing.

@RussellLowery10 @moseskagan Not just “investors” too! A LA based affordable non profit told me this week they will never build again in LA City because the process is so broken

@moseskagan I am a huge fan of what CaYimby built. Lots of success in a crazy hard environment. At the same time, real estate investors are fleeing and the zoning reforms Yimby champions haven't resulted in more units. Need voices like yours to bridge the gap.

Every developer of rentals is either a landlord in waiting or hoping to sell to one. As a result, ~all of us "Los Angeles real estate bros" (a weird turn of phrase, since many owners and developers are female!) care about many things other than zoning.

@moseskagan Issue is not that it’s not a logical approach, it’s likely more so it’s going to be more difficult to attract the brokers wanting to work with that structure compared to all the other brokers working that market. I think middle ground is most would want to end up with more $

@moseskagan I was trying to negotiate a ground lease and proposed a fee at lease execution and at 2x with half upfront and rest paid at rent commencement (was a significant amt) Went no where but would you be willing to pay a higher fee if paid over time?

Why do commercial brokers get paid their commission on the full lease at move-in, rather than getting paid over time, as the tenant actually pays rent? Feels like it would be fairer for them to bear the risk of default alongside the landlord, no?

@charlieHA5 @joeybaum13 Cool, let's connect this week happy to stay in touch, mind reaching out by DM?

@muddsicle @joeybaum13 Yes correct.

who's buying 25-100 unit, rent-controlled properties, in LA at scale right now?

@charlieHA5 @joeybaum13 so that shakes out to like a 6% cap going in to a 7.5-8% cap +/- assuming amortizing debt? def seems doable in the B markets but hard to hit in the A markets

@muddsicle @joeybaum13 Trying to buy at least 4% cash on cash day 1 with some upside (either ADU’s or via natural turn) to a 7+ cash on cash by year 4/5. Still a lot of crazy buyers out there IMO driving pricing too high.