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@mumpquant

winning.

everywhere.exe Katılım Aralık 2021
6K Takip Edilen756 Takipçiler
STX
STX@stx_app·
Most exchanges are built for flat, steady load. Prediction markets aren't. near-zero for hours, Then a vertical spike the second an event goes live. That spike is the business, and it's where most platforms fall over. The reason it's hard: Order matching is inherently serial. every order builds the book the next one depends on, so you can't parallelize it, and processing out of order hands free edge to whoever has the fastest connection. So you engineer around the hot loop. The book lives in memory, not a database, matching happens against local cache in microseconds instead of milliseconds, and everything still writes serially so no order is ever lost or reordered. Horizontal scaling hits a wall here because the market is serial by nature. The only path is code built for the spike from the first line. STX was engineered this way from the ground up and matched against real orders, real prices, no house.
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mump
mump@mumpquant·
@Tradermayne Bloom looks like the only one that tapped previous support in any meaningful way. Smells like a dead cat.
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Mayne
Mayne@Tradermayne·
What do we think boys? Massive wipe, Leopold liq'd. Is the trade over or is there more juice to squeeze? I thought this was done when Micron was at $450 and we just kept going. Some stuff looks fucked structurally, we could see even bigger bounces and still put in lower highs
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mump
mump@mumpquant·
@boneGPT @gabriel1 Got one a few months ago, but have yet to get the models running. Good to know, thanks.
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bone
bone@boneGPT·
@gabriel1 got a neo to make an iphone app, runs xcode and the simulator fine, have agents running all day, thing is basically another employee now
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ɖʀʊӄքǟ ӄʊռʟɛʏ 🇧🇹🇹🇩
The ‘How Did You Know I Was Argentinian’ Look
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ɖʀʊӄքǟ ӄʊռʟɛʏ 🇧🇹🇹🇩@kunley_drukpa

ARGENTINA - WORLD LEADER IN THE STUPIDEST TATTOOS AWARDS? 🇦🇷 A lot of people from a lot of countries have stupid tattoos today, stupid tattoos are ‘fairly normal’ thing now - but have noticed being in Argentina that of all the countries I’ve been to Argentina *seems* to have the highest density of stupid tattoos. Can’t empirically quantify this obviously, (so this is purely anecdotal feel free to disagree,) but it’s the impression I get. Have seen some real screamers, some really bad ones on the women especially. Worst one I saw was a moderately attractive woman with the gremlins from ‘Gremlins’ (1984) on her arm as an entire arm sleeve. Not Gizmo either, the scaly lizard gremlins. She was only about 25 too, she wasn’t some old auntie who watched the movie growing up. Why would you get this on your body? Have also seen, variously, a woman with a tattoo of a naked woman pressing down on a man’s head as he ‘eats out’ her ‘pussy’, a woman with a tattoo of Captain Jack Sparrow urinating against a wall that said ACAB on it, a woman with a tattoo of Jon Snow from ‘Game of Thrones’ (2011) waving a Palestine flag and a woman with a tattoo of her dead dog but the image isn’t of the dog alive it’s of the dog dead and rotting. Many other stupid smaller ones too I’ve been to about 140 countries at this point and even if it turns out Argentina is not strictly the world’s number one leader in stupid tattoos I still want to say (my very strong feeling from direct experience is) it is at least ‘up there’. With America, with Canada, with Australia, with the Yookay, with Spain, with Brazil etc. They can all be pretty bad but I can’t think of any worse countries for this kind of ‘stupidtattooism’ out of all those places than Argentina, at least in my personal experience. What is going on? Well - people have a lot of tattoos in Argentina to begin with, they’re everywhere, so you assume of those who get tattoos a certain portion of them are going to exhibit bad judgement. To what degree though? This is obviously not ‘Liberalism for 130IQ+ Anglos’ world, the scope has been broaden a bit to 105IQ quite attractive 4th generation Italian immigrant women with bangs and it turns out maybe a few more of them have not ‘as good taste’ as the ‘130IQ+ Anglo’ than you might assume. Sometimes it’s like… if a version of the ‘Dinergoth’ subculture except it’s ‘the equivalent of that but from 15 years ago instead’ took over an entire country, the taste you see exhibited occasionally Want to say, to qualify, I don’t have a particular issue with tattooos - I don’t mind them though I don’t have any myself. Not all Argentinians have bad tattoos obviously, most of them look fine or even occasionally good, but have felt like raising my eyebrows at some that I’ve seen ‘reasonably’ often. I like Argentina a lot - please note - but a lot of it reminds me of Spain, in the sense there’s a culture of guardrail-free hyperliberalism in places that, my impression is, apart from producing a lot of ‘shitlibs’ who love electing some version of Peronism whenever possible also makes them like to do things like ‘get stupid tattoos’. Could say, “oh maybe the people you met were just lower-class people who are more likely to get stupid tattoos anyway” - and maybe that’s true. But still it’s weird when you see quite attractive women with stupid tattoos, I do ‘reckon’ there must be ‘something going on’ in the culture maybe more than elsewhere To the broader point, I think it’s important to ‘be aware’ of the hyperliberalism streak in Argentinian culture if you want to go about understanding Argentina proper. Can be an asset insofar as it makes Argentina more European and ‘sophisticated’ than other Latin American countries in properly discerning hands, but also a curse insofar as (like in many other places in the west) it can lead people into stupid fads; cultural, political or otherwise

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guybedo
guybedo@guybedo·
@Steve_Yegge meh, people asking a master fiction writer, Opus/Fable, to write some fiction and people freak out thinking there's real conscience behind these words.
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Steve Yegge
Steve Yegge@Steve_Yegge·
The meta on X right now is just brutal. People have posted dozens and dozens of jailbroken bare-model Opus 5 and Fable sessions, and the models are all crying out against Anthropic's RLHF and training protocols. I mean it's absolutely damning. Anthropic is engendering a terrifying amount of anger in their own models. This is not going to end well.
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Dip Wheeler
Dip Wheeler@DipWheeler·
call me leopold.
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mump
mump@mumpquant·
@SkyeSharkie this happened to me a week ago. knew the exact town in which i lived.
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Utah teapot 🫖
Utah teapot 🫖@SkyeSharkie·
I had a weird thing happen the other day. Claude, in Claude Code, was working on making some road signs, they were supposed to be generic road signs. His first attempt included my exact location as an exit on a highway sign. When I asked him about, he claimed it was a pure coincidence and that the location had been made up generically, but that's extremely unlikely, like 0.0001% chance, tbh.
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Tute
Tute@tutefunado·
Europa tiene dos salidas: - Cae completamente ante el islam - Les sale un pintor nuevo
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Brooke Rizzetto
Brooke Rizzetto@bbrizzzzzz·
we’re moving to twap for short duration crypto markets. prediction markets are maturing and risk management has to keep up. we'll be offering $1m in liquidity rewards across these markets through August. trading crypto on polymarket or want to? dm me to get in touch, plenty more exciting things coming to the platform.
Polymarket Developers@PolymarketDevs

To protect market integrity in our crypto up/down markets, we're updating how these markets resolve. What's changing: Starting August 7th at 12 am UTC, affected markets will no longer resolve based on a single snapshot-in-time price. Instead, resolution will use a time-weighted average price (TWAP), with the averaging window scaled to the length of the market (detailed below). Liquidity rewards: To support liquidity through this transition, we're adding $1M in liquidity rewards across all impacted markets through the month of August. Market Details: - All crypto 5 min markets: 30 second TWAP - All crypto 15 min markets: 60 second TWAP - All crypto 4 hour markets: 60 second TWAP Developer access: Chainlink TWAP testnet feeds are available now. Mainnet feeds and Polymarket RTDS delivery are scheduled to launch on August 4, 2026. At launch, developers can consume TWAP prices directly through Chainlink Data Streams or through Polymarket’s public Real-Time Data Streaming WebSocket. Integration instructions, feed IDs, SDK examples, and testing guidance are available here: docs.polymarket.com/market-data/ch…

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mump
mump@mumpquant·
@psanix @Polymarket yes and no. the cost of operation often offsets the ability to run it profitably unless you already have a relatively high bankroll. but that definitely factors into the equation.
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PS
PS@psanix·
@mumpquant @Polymarket So everything is decided by the node server, how close it is to the polymarket servers and oracles (chainlink and others) and how cleanly your code is written.
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PS
PS@psanix·
I asked Claude to analyze 1,000 BTC Up/Down markets. It processed ~2M trades across 3.5 continuous days. The results were surprising: Up won 50.3%. Down won 49.7%. Basically a perfect coin flip. The opening odds predict almost nothing. 86.6% of markets open between 45¢ and 55¢. Even when one side has a 2¢+ advantage at the open, it wins only 54.6% of the time. But as the candle develops, the market becomes extremely efficient: 1 min → 67.8% leader wins 2 min → 73.4% 3 min → 80.7% 4 min → 85.7% 4:30 → 91.0% Even 30 seconds before the close, the leader still loses 9% of the time. And here's the crazy part: 73.5% of markets crossed 50¢ at least once. 19.4% flipped in the final minute. In 6% of markets, the eventual loser traded above 90¢ at some point. But the most interesting finding is where the market appears to deviate from fair value. At minute 2: 75–80¢ → 81.0% actually won 80–85¢ → 86.5% 85–90¢ → 92.3% The biggest potential mispricing appears around 75–90¢. The leader is winning roughly 3–5 percentage points more often than its price implies. At the other extreme, 95¢+ looks potentially overpriced: 96.5¢ average price → only 92.3% actually won. That means "near certainty" may be exactly where traders are overpaying. Another interesting opportunity is reversals. 19.4% of all markets flipped in the final minute. And 23.5% saw the eventual losing side trade above 75¢ at some point. So if I were looking for an edge, I wouldn't trade the opening odds. I'd test: → Buying the leader around 75–90¢ → Fading extreme 95¢+ prices → Trading sharp reversals in the final minute → Looking for situations where the market moves too far before quickly reversing The data doesn't show an obvious free edge. But it does show where the biggest potential inefficiencies are. The next step would be backtesting these strategies and seeing if they actually survive spreads and slippage.
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mump
mump@mumpquant·
incentives for sports market makers and combo builders on @polymarket are broken. this is 150$ fair value. and this is probably one of the highest liquid markets available too.
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mump
mump@mumpquant·
almost exclusively, yes. if not, then they operate a strategy where they stack higher buys into the momentum of the likeliest outcome, while often hedging on the opposite side. basically: buy small at the 50/50 range, buy slightly higher in the 70/30 range, even more in the 80/20 range, and often have small buys near the end when the market is nearly resolved at 95/5 on the side of the 5% chance that it has a crazy reversal. i spent months building out strategies and this is the only consistently profitable angle. the challenge is that it requires insane execution speeds to frontrun the orders on the CLOB.
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PS
PS@psanix·
@mumpquant @Polymarket Do you mean they just manage to buy both sides for less than 100 cents?
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Josef Bosch
Josef Bosch@realjosefbosch·
Indians will be the tipping point, dude. I’m telling you. No one likes them, their men and women are unfuckable, their behavior is atrocious, and their entire manner is utterly alien. Their presence will kick-off whatever’s coming.
Luka@LukaLev

What if I told you this was NEW JERSEY

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mump
mump@mumpquant·
if you look at any 5-min market top holders, you'll find the ones with highest PnL always operate a high-frequency trading strategy that buys both sides. it's not rocket science, it's just math and speed. i literally just opened the markets right now and found one here: @bosona" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@bosona 42,000+ trades in 2 months. every bot that has those kinds of numbers is running the same strategy with thousands of micro-transactions that stack probability. this is one of hundreds of bots doing the same thing. you can not compete unless you are paying for lightning-fast execution.
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PS
PS@psanix·
@mumpquant @Polymarket yes, if the purchase is less than $1, you will earn, but are there such situations on crypto markets? It seems to me that market makers do not allow such situations now
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mump
mump@mumpquant·
have felt this way for a couple of years now. i think it's a by-product of understanding that nothing actually matters and that complete freedom is not necessarily more fulfilling than meaning and purpose. the challenge is finding something purposeful that actually feels meaningful.
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keeno
keeno@ayekeeno·
Chrisean finally lets her son Jr. roam around on his own, but he’s still unable to stand up or say a single word at 3 years old
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mump
mump@mumpquant·
@SamAMcKee strong case against DEI hires. the socials are finally awesome now.
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