Michael Treherne

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Michael Treherne

Michael Treherne

@mwtreherne

Economist at heart, striving to do my bit to make the world a more efficient place. Portfolio Manager at Vestact, managing money in Johannesburg and New York

South Africa Katılım Şubat 2011
374 Takip Edilen2.3K Takipçiler
Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@FinanceGhost I placed an order with one of their divisions for delivery before the end of Aug. This is their reply to me "we are nearing financial year end, and we are not shipping anything more from this supplier...There will be no more sea freight orders landing before the end of Nov 2025"
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The Finance Ghost
The Finance Ghost@FinanceGhost·
Today, give me the confidence of the Hudaco team that whines endlessly about South Africa while paying just a third of profits as dividends... If you can't figure out the macro, pay a bigger divi and get paid like a corporate caretaker. Simple. ghostmail.co.za/ghost-bites-al…
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Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@WOOLWORTHS_SA Come on team. What’s the point of me paying for this delivery when the bulk of my order is out of stock? This is going to be a very sad Braai!
Michael Treherne tweet media
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Nick Hedley
Nick Hedley@nickhedley·
A study of young adults has found that those who had mild Covid infections have seen their IQs fall 6 points, on average. They've experienced persistent reductions in memory and executive function. - Bloomberg
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Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@smalltalkdaily In my limited sample size, this was happening already to some degree. Whenever people moved jobs, they would cash in their retirement savings, pay penalty taxes, and spend the rest. Still a concerning trend though.
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Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@smalltalkdaily My family does business with many of the Hudaco engineering businesses. They are poorly stocked (lost sales) and the staff who knew their industries have left. Management only cares about spreadsheet ratios. It is easier to blame the economy than own shortcomings.
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Smalltalkdaily Research
Smalltalkdaily Research@smalltalkdaily·
H1 2024 results from South African bell weather stock $JSEHDC Hudaco & the bell was a bit out of tone the past 6 months due to the challenging domestic consumer economy Revenue R3,983m (-6.3%) as the consumer division reported a -15.7% slide in revenue and a -36.2% slump in profits due to the challenging H1 environment HEPS fell -15.3% to 785 cents per share The interim dividend was maintained at 325 cents The battery business (many companies in the same boat) was hit as was CADAC (late winter) Encouraging the engineering side saw a +3.9% increase in revenue & a +19.5% rise in profit. So, domestic industry - at least - seems to be holding up There is a 10.00am results webinar today and I provide the link to the presentation hudaco.co.za/presentations/… #HDC is a solid stock and should the GNU (hold up) and the domestic economy get some sentiment uplift from any improved economic policies / stimulus + lower interest rates, #HDC is poised to perform well 📷 📷
Smalltalkdaily Research tweet mediaSmalltalkdaily Research tweet mediaSmalltalkdaily Research tweet mediaSmalltalkdaily Research tweet media
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Michael Treherne retweetledi
Kanthan Pillay 🇿🇦
Kanthan Pillay 🇿🇦@KanthanPillay·
Nice insight from @mwtreherne in yesterday's Vestact newsletter Investing in startups and young, exciting companies is tough. Their value is based on future sales, and the current business is often very reliant on one or two key customers. A wrong step can easily mean the end of the company. That is why we have an unofficial rule in the office that we won't buy any company with a market cap of less than $10 billion. Now it seems that we need to increase that hurdle. Byju's is an Indian multinational educational technology company, headquartered in Bengaluru, that used to be India's highest-valued startup at $22 billion. HSBC now say that it is worth zero. Byju's faces court cases, its directors and auditors have quit, and it recently failed to raise capital to keep going. The name Byju's may sound familiar. That's because Prosus is their biggest shareholder with 10%, having contributed $500 million over various fundraising rounds. Oops. HSBC also estimates that Prosus' stake in a number of other startups - Meesho, Pharmeasy, ElasticRun, and Stack Overflow - are not nearly as valuable as they once were; and has cut those valuations in half. These are HSBC's subjective views, but they will play a role in setting expectations when those companies need to raise capital in the future. The frustrating thing here is that Prosus' previous management used to justify their high salaries on the basis that they were superior allocators of capital. Thankfully there is now a new management team and the money lost on these startups is still relatively small in relation to the Tencent stake.
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Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@Rb__sa Oh no, international transaction processing costs... You forgot to mention that you also get paid a very juicy swipe fee from Visa.
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RB
RB@Rb__sa·
@mwtreherne Even though these transactions are denominated in Rands, they still involve international companies, and the bank incurs international transaction processing costs. RB
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Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@Rb__sa Luckily for me 'industry norm' is only some of the banks. I'll make sure to use one of my other cards in future.
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RB
RB@Rb__sa·
@mwtreherne Hi Michael. The international fee across all currencies is 2% for pricing simplicity and consistency, and it now also applies to Rand denominated transactions, in line with the industry norm. RB
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Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@JohannBiermann1 ANC at 37% sounds too low and MK at 13% sounds too high. I highly doubt that MK would get more votes than the EFF?
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Johann Biermann 🇿🇦
Johann Biermann 🇿🇦@JohannBiermann1·
ANC at 37%! Jiissssssieeeeeeee
JC Louw@jc_louw

#ZAR moving HARD! *S. AFRICA RAND DECLINES AFTER POLL SHOWS ANC SUPPORT DROPPING *SOUTH AFRICA'S ZUMA-BACKED MKP SUPPORT SEEN AT 13%: SRF POLL *S. AFRICA'S ANC SUPPORT SEEN AT 37% BEFORE MAY VOTE: SRF POLL (Bloomberg)

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Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@dailymaverick These numbers are a vague guess at best. Just look at how off the "won't vote" numbers are, that will probably be closer to 30% - 40% come election day.
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Daily Maverick
Daily Maverick@dailymaverick·
ROAD TO 2024 ELECTIONS: Dramatic decline in electoral support of ANC clear from new national poll #Echobox=1707106723" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">dailymaverick.co.za/article/2024-0…
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Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@iAmTPJN Precovid, GIBS was getting 3x more applications for the MBA than they had space for. I'm not sure what it is like now, but would assume even with regular price hikes they still have enough applicants to fill seats. Many corporates also pay for their employees to do an MBA.
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Thamsanqa Netha
Thamsanqa Netha@iAmTPJN·
It would yield SOME value. But the MBA regardless of cost is an exclusive thing. The brand value adds a lot to that cost. The WITS/GIBS/ UCT MBA will be seen differently from other MBA's. Because of international benchmarking and accreditations they will price accordingly.
Ess@EMukumbo

@iAmTPJN Would a short course at an Ivy league school not yield the same value? These prices are becoming exclusionary 😫, cannot see a middle class individual with many financial responsibilities house, car, school fees etc paying these price

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Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@MorningBrew Not to forget that the share price poped over 10% the day Ballmer announced he was leaving.
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Morning Brew ☕️
Morning Brew ☕️@MorningBrew·
Just leaving this here Microsoft under Ballmer: -26% Microsoft under Nadella: +886%
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Michael Treherne
Michael Treherne@mwtreherne·
@SashtonSean It kills me that the term 'Rand manipulation' is used. It was price fixing by currency desks, around what they charged clients to trade. It didn't impact the spot price of the Rand.
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Johann Biermann 🇿🇦
Johann Biermann 🇿🇦@JohannBiermann1·
MSCI Argentina ETF popping of the news of Milei's victory. Read into that what you want...
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David (TalkingCents)
David (TalkingCents)@talkcentss·
𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸 ▪️There are 2 million issued shares ▪️800+ Shareholders ▪️10c dividend (Maximum) 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀: 💰 SA Mutual Life Assurance = 20 000 💰S.A Police Widow&Orphan = 10 520 💰ABSA Bank = 10 000 💰FirstRand Group = 10 000 💰Discovery Limited = 10 000 💰CFO of Standard Bank = 10 000 💰Comp Secretary of Anglo/A = 10 000 💰 Agri South Africa = 10 000 💰Bidvest Bank = 500 💰 Anton Rupert Trust = 200 💰JP Landman Trust = 200 💰 Dawie Roodt = 200 💰Nelson Mandela Children fund = 100 Source: SARB shareholder Index —————————————————- 𝗔𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: ▪️No individual can have more than 10 000 shares ▪️ Maximum Value of all dividends = R200 000 ▪️ R1 000 maximum dividend for each individual ▪️Remaining profits go to the South African Government ▪️110 individuals own +- half of SARBs issued shares
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