myex

@liquidatedxxx @SSGamblers Wow, great trade 🔥

Welp it happened again. Don't say I don't share my alpha sources lol.

@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @betmoardotfun Congrats!

Big day! I have now passed $40,000 dollars profit on @Polymarket

🗳️ South Carolina Special Election SC Senate special primary is being misread as a horse race. It's not. It's a decision tree gated on one question: does Darline Graham run for the full term? Everything else is downstream of that. Here's how I'm modelling it. 🧵 Node 1 — Does Graham run? Trump has already endorsed her for the full term, not just the interim seat. She accepted the appointment and hasn't shut down a full run — reading her statements, it seems she's signalling intent to serve, rather than being a placeholder. My read: ~80% she runs. Node 2 — If she runs, does she win? Trump endorsement + Graham legacy + a field that clears for her + the ~97% win rate for Trump-endorsed candidates this cycle. Very hard to beat. The only real risk could be a runoff where the anti-Graham vote consolidates one-on-one. Still, ~90% she wins if she runs. P(Graham wins) = P(runs) × P(wins | runs) ≈ 0.80 × 0.90 ≈ ~72% If she doesn't run, watch Evette — Trump backed her before (governor's race). If Graham passes, she's a live re-endorsement candidate the field is sleeping on at 1c. I'm personally positioned in both Graham and Evette.

@cryptobasenji Well done but that was embarrassing lol

Trump in the photo as predicted 🐾📸

Let’s go Argentina!

@CarOnPolymarket 0-0 Draw

$500 to the person who predicts the correct score between Spain and Argentina

@GenaTheCroco Well said

I have 3 rules when investing my money, do not give it to kids, jews nor women. And I break the first two rules all the time because Im undisciplined and greedy, but I'm not stupid, and this keeps me solvent.

gm

@alphametrico @cryptobasenji The day is over so I can’t access it anymore - I’ll send a screenshot if I see it again in the future

@myexpoly @cryptobasenji Can you please share a screenshot

Here's where geopolitics and football meet.🐾

4/ Bottom line: 5-point lead × split opposition × personal brand × tactical-voting coordination = a more secure position than the 73¢ price implies. Modest underpricing of a defensible favorite. Not financial advice. Polling: PollCheck, Survation, Opinium, More in Common.

3/ The risks worth pricing:• Reform took 7/8 Wigan council wards in May 2026 locals — local momentum is real • Reform has overperformed by-election polls historically • Restore vote could tactically collapse back to Kenyon All real. None decisive enough to flip the structural math.

🇬🇧 Makerfield by-election value play - Burnham @ 73c on Polymarket 3 consecutive polls have Labour's Andy Burnham +3 to +5 over Reform's Robert Kenyon. But the structural picture is better than the topline: Restore Britain (Lowe's new party) is on 7-8% — and 13% of 2024 Reform voters are defecting to them. That split is the only thing keeping Labour ahead. Without it, generic Reform leads by 11. Net: I think true value is 75-80%. Position fits.

GM Polymarket Degens