nch123
607 posts
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@jonathant324 I dont use volume - just has to meet the criteria I discuss in detail in the newsletter. >94 plus acceptance as written in trade plan last night
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We had a fantastic, clean rally yesterday in #ES_F: The 6042 long triggered to 6105 target in a straight line. Now, its all noise until FOMC. Sit on runners, *dont overtrade noise and chop*
No change. 6087 must recover to see 6105, 6115, 6130+. 6066-70=support, sell below 6049
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterdays long was on the reclaim of 6042 (as posted at 9:48AM) and had 1 target: 6105 and after a 65+ point run to tag it, bulls are lucking out with a pre-FOMC micro dip in #ES_F No change: 6066-70=support (sell below), 6087 must reclaim now to trigger 6106, 6115, 6130+
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@tanay1210 @AdamMancini4 That was technically just a fbd of the 43 level.
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@AdamMancini4 These level reclaim trades work flawlessly during high vol regimes! Particularly with fbd behind us. Although they are a bit sluggish during the low vol grind up
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That's about as clean as it gets in #ES_F: 6042 was key support as posted today. After flushing it, I wrote at 9:48AM that 6042 must reclaim to rally with the following target set: 6070, 6082, 6105. *Let runners work*.
6070 hit, 6082, 6105, gap fill if ES wants more. Sell<6042
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Quick follow through on this: After rallying to yesterdays 6070 target and dipped, we sold to 6020s in #ES_F. I then posted 6042 must reclaim to rally. It did & we did. *Protect gains here, let a runner work*. No change: 6070, 6082, 6105+ if ES wants more 6042 fails, dip again
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Day 8 of straight upside in #ES_F and the long runner from Mondays 6020 Failed Breakdown remains alive. As I've posted hourly since Monday let it work, we only sell when a support fails.
No change: 6135 keeps 6161, 6172, 6185 live for today. 6135 must fail to dip 6115, 6105
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
8 days of straight upside in #ES_F, with longs still working from Mondays 6020 Failed Breakdown. Latest trigger was 6115 reclaim yesterday. My targets with 6136 (major), then 6154 & we hit 54. Plan today: 6135=support. Keeps 6161, 6172, 6185 live. 6135 fails, dip 6115, 6098-6105
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As posted weekly, on Dec 18 bears took control in #ES_F. Since then, we are 4/5 weeks red. Now, the pattern is a 2 month megaphone with 5830 support
Plan next week: 5830 lowest must hold. 5880 reclaim triggers up to 5928, 5945, 6004. 5830 fails, we start leg to 5800, 5730 direct
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@AdamMancini4 Hey Adam was the backtest of 30 before the fbd a good long seeing it hold for 20 minutes at the open?
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Another good day for Failed Breakdowns & all I do most days is wait for these. We got one at 8am of the ystd 5935 low, rallied +30. 5928 became support after and pushing since.
Almost at 5965 target. *Lock in gains now*, leave small runner. 5982, 6004 if ES wants more. Sell<5928
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Its been a choppy session in #ES_F but levels respecting precisely. After this mornings classic Failed Breakdown of yesterdays 5935 low (which rallied +30 points), 5928 became support as posted and bull/bear line. Held again. No change: 5965, 5982, 6004 next. Sell<5928
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There's another target hit in #ES_F and 5988 tagged. As I warned all day, don't overcomplicate today. We got a monster Failed Breakdown of 5918-23 late yesterday, which triggered long. Job today, was just ride it and get paid. Anymore just bonus.
5997, 6004, then 6016+ next
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Now is where sitting on hands becomes key. Today's final target in #ES_F off the 5918-23 reclaim was 5973. We hit it. Anymore today is bonus. Don't force trades, just let runners work. 5988, 6004 next when ES ready. Bulls want to see extensive basing below here and above 5951
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Its been very quality trading for a holiday period. After today's 6060 ES short triggered a 60+ point sell, I tweeted 30mins ago that 6006 had to reclaim to rally. Moments after I tweeted, we reclaimed, and rallied. Protect gains right here.
6027, 6043-46 next if ES wants more.
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After todays 6060 failure triggered short, we saw a great 60+ point flush in #ES_F & I warned 2hrs ago to tighten stops on shorts. Since then, we've based around this 6006 lvl. Most days, action is clustered around the open & the close Reclaim here starts us to 6027, 6043-46.
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@AdamMancini4 @EpicCharting @JU51324604 We had a setup like this at the beginning of the year in January thought right? Why is the backtest so bearish?
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@EpicCharting @JU51324604 No different from what I've said all week - this is the most bearish setup since the bull market began in 2022 with the full backtest of 6100. Anything can happen of course but if a bear market is to begin, this would the setup it starts on
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Perfect follow through on the short in #ES_F. 6060 failure triggered short as posted to 6046 target, and we just hit 6046. Lock in profits here, leave a runner to go if you'd like, wrap it up for the day.
6038, 6027 next down here. Bulls must recover 6066 to resume back up
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
This week has been about 1 level in #ES_F: 6097-100. It was my target since last Friday, major res. Bulls control above, bears control from the FOMC below. We hit it yesterday & sold Plan today: 6060-66=support. Bulls must reclaim 82 to rally to 87, 97-100. 6060 fails, sell 6046
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Its been a staggering 160 point short squeeze from this mornings long trigger at 5891. As warned 1hr ago, protect profits. #ES_F gave a gift, dont squander in final 3 hours of regular trading in 2024
No change: 5987-90 remains support. Keeps 6100 FOMC backtest live. Sell <5987
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's 6032 target tagged in #ES_F, and we are now up an incredible 141 points from this mornings long trigger, one of the best longs of the year. Plan was clear: 5891 triggers long, with 5928 reclaim to bottom. ****Protect your profits now, no greed*** 5987-90 now support
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@AdamMancini4 I know you hate predictions but how long until we see another ATH?
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Precise technicals & today's #ES_F plan was simple: 5891 reclaim trigger long, with 5928 target, where I warned to lock in gains, leave runner. We hit & sold. Anymore today = bonus
Bulls want to see basing now. 5928 recovers, we bottom to 5937, 5955, 5987-90. Same supports apply
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Plan today at 8am was very simple in #ES_F: 5891 reclaim triggers long, to 5928 target. We reclaimed 5891, & just hit 5928. Good res. Work is done today, *protect gains, leave a runner to do the lifting*. Bottoms in above 5937, 5955, 5987-90 if ES wants more. Same supports apply
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Plan today at 8am was very simple in #ES_F: 5891 reclaim triggers long, to 5928 target. We reclaimed 5891, & just hit 5928. Good res. Work is done today, *protect gains, leave a runner to do the lifting*. Bottoms in above
5937, 5955, 5987-90 if ES wants more. Same supports apply
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Quick work in #ES_F. 5858-66 would be key support today, and it held. Reclaim of 5891 would be needed to trigger up, and we got a 20 point bounce with 0 drawdown. *No greed today, lock in gains here*. 5928 next if ES wants more. Low is in above there. 5892=support. 5858-66 below
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@GR41067012 @anchovy_paste I was away from PC otherwise I wouldve taken that short also - very nice structure. But I'll take it above the current breakdown low or on the recovery of yesterdays low
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@AdamMancini4
Was there a short entry available there below 31? I passed because NL said to wait for bounce at 27, but wanted your thoughts. Matches this pic from your NL perfectly!
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@AdamMancini4 @SprinklerRs Sadly the 100 point cpi ranges are a thing of the past
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@SprinklerRs Volatility on CPI has been declining recently compared to the last year or two, but hopefully we can still get some and get a good hard flush down
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As warned since yesterday, this entire week will be about 1 level/magnet: 6063. It was sell target yesterday, we bounced, then it spent overnight there in #ES_F. 21hrs here now.
No change: It keeps 6079 target #1, 6093-98 target #2 live. 6063 fails, we sell to 6050, 6046
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday morning, I warned this week would be all about 1 magnet: 6064, and #ES_F agrees. We sold there yesterday, bounced, and have spent 20hrs here now. Backtests December 3rd breakout. Plan today: 6063=support. Keeps 6079, 6093-98 target live. 6063 fails, sell to 6050, 6046
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Slow motion, low quality price action continues in #ES_F (for now), with 6063 remaining a brick wall resistance since Friday and ES putting in a micro-dip.
No change: 6046 (weak), 6035 must hold on this dip & creeping there gradually. Reclaiming 6060 from here starts ES back up
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
6063 has been a brick wall in #ES_F: It was my target for last Friday's rally, target yesterday, and we are heading into day 3 sitting here after spending most the day there yesterday building structure. No change: 6046, 6035=supports. Bulls control>6035 keeping 6078, 6092+ live
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@AdamMancini4 Hi Adam, is safe to assume that longs at the middle of the range are lower win rate unless a structure forms there. Which is why 08 bid was risky ?
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The 5886 "ATM Machine" Level did what "ATM Machine Levels do": Paid out. We tested this last Friday, again Monday, put in a monster Failed Breakdown yesterday, re-tested today. *Lock in gains here at 5908 res, leave risk free runner*
5922, 5928+ if #ES_F wants more. 86 must hold
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
As discussed all week, this week has been all about 1 level in #ES_F: 5886 which I've called the "magnet level" or "ATM Machine" level. As written at 4pm yesterday (when we were 5940s), ES likely wasn't done with it, and we are back again now Key test. 5865, 5859 below if fails
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@CryptosnCookies @lamarroemer Doesn't matter, anywhere above 5886 (the lower the better), we could even put in a failed breakdown of yesterdays low
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Its the 1st post-rally dip for #ES_F after yesterdays 100+ point squeeze to 5957 target. 5928 had to defend to keep the steep upward trajectory live, and it cracked at the open. This is healthy
5922, 5908 were next down, en route. 5928 must reclaim to resume up. 5886 below 5908
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday saw a 100+ point rally, driven by a massive Failed Breakdown of 5886. 5957 was next target & is the high. #ES_F finally getting its 1st post-rally dip. *Today may be a mess, don't overtrade*. No change. 5928 must hold (5922, 5908 below). 5942 reclaim resumes up to base
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@RaisesQuestions @PennyTrader82 Always tough to say, I think it may stick though. We'll see, but the basing now is constructive
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We got a great sell last week, but it wasn't those who were FOMO top picking on Nov 5/6 who profited. It was those who patiently waited for a base to form Mon-Thurs, then breakdown. Trying to be 1st into tops or bottoms is a #1 loss driver. Tops are processes, not events. 0 rush
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@AdamMancini4 @MrMarket85 @DickButkus_ On the failure of 98 I’m considering it tested now as well correct?
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@MrMarket85 @DickButkus_ No change at all from the newsletter actually
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After last weeks 1 way trend (terrible day trading), this week has been prime with many lvl to lvl moves daily in #ES_F. 6009 support as posted. We held it, bounced. It then became weak, with 5998-6002 next down
Just hit. Last shot for bulls. This fails, we sell 5980 1st stop
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We continue to flag following last weeks 330 point rally & are building the scaffolding for the next trend, 1 day at a time. 6009 was support today as posted #ES_F agreed testing it exact & bouncing Weak now. Must hold to keep 6032, 6038+ live. 5998-6002 is below, final support
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