Nick
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Nick
@ndsshow
Gain insights to national security, geopolitics, intelligence, and technology. Be informed, not just opinionated! CEO @geo_owl | Join the Ops on YouTube


We went into Iran thinking the regime would fall in days. It didn’t. Now the world economy is at risk and nobody knows the next move. This is Iraq all over again. @RealSamFaddis joins me on the next episode of NATIONAL SECURITY TALK:





NEW: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s reported inner circle is dominated by long-standing hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders. Their influence will almost certainly drive Iran toward more hardline, anti-Western policies and deepen existing patterns of regime corruption and securitization. Other Key Takeaways ⬇️(1/2) The Iranian regime has taken steps to further restrict the flow of information out of Iran, which will almost certainly limit our ability to observe strikes in Iran. Internet monitor NetBlocks reported on March 16 that the regime has further tightened internet restrictions. A BBC reporter stated on March 15 that the regime has reportedly started to target individuals with Starlink access and reduced the availability of VPNs. The combined force targeted a likely Iranian drone facility in South Khorasan Province in one of the combined force’s easternmost strikes since the war began. The strike indicates that combined force aircraft can operate deep inside Iranian territory. Iran has not attacked any vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since March 12. Anti-regime media also published footage on March 12 that shows a US Navy F/A-18 Hornet engaging targets with its autocannon at extremely low altitude in Chabahar, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, which is on the Iranian coast on the Gulf of Oman. This suggests that US forces have at least local air dominance along certain segments of the coast, which would enable US aircraft to engage drones and anti-ship cruise missiles at low altitudes to protect shipping if ordered to do so.






I spoke with @JohnKiriakou about the escalating Israel–Lebanon conflict and the growing risk of a humanitarian disaster if this war expands. Watch the full interview: youtu.be/Go9D9TSpEdU




The brave people of Cuba have just taken over the headquarters of the Communist Party in Ciego de Ávila. These rebels then set fire to the building. Cubans see the freedom being brought to other nations and now want theirs.


🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE TINY ISLAND THAT COULD STRANGLE IRAN’S ECONOMY Kharg Island is barely a dot on the map; it's a rocky lump in the Persian Gulf about 15 miles off Iran’s coast. But that tiny island handles around 90% of Iran’s oil exports, which means it’s their economic jugular. Pipelines from the mainland feed giant storage tanks there, and supertankers dock offshore to haul crude out through the Strait of Hormuz, much of it heading straight to China. Cut Kharg off and the money pipeline dries up. No tankers. No oil exports. No revenue. For military planners, that makes the island one of the most tempting pressure points in the entire region. Why bomb refineries across a country the size of Iran when one island controls the tap? But actually seizing Kharg would be anything but easy. Iran has spent decades preparing for exactly that scenario. Not with aircraft carriers or massive fleets, with asymmetric chaos. Naval mines scattered through shipping lanes, drone swarms like the Shahed-136, fast attack boats buzzing around like armed jet skis. Individually, none of these threaten the U.S. Navy, but combined, they turn the Persian Gulf into a giant naval obstacle course. Even if the island were captured, holding it would be the real nightmare. Iran wouldn’t need to retake Kharg, it would just need to make sure no one can safely use it. And then there’s the global fallout. Iran exports 1–2 million barrels of oil per day, take Kharg offline and oil markets would react insanely. Source: BBC





