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nextbigfuture

@nextbigfuture

Brian Wang | NextBigFuture: Deep Tech Insights on AI, Drones, Space, Energy & Investments | Proven prediction track record (Metaculus rank 8 + Grok citations

California, USA Katılım Mayıs 2008
4.8K Takip Edilen18.4K Takipçiler
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nextbigfuture
nextbigfuture@nextbigfuture·
STMicroelectronics confirmed how I was modeling SpaceX Starlink high speed internet growth from now to 2030. @elonmusk @aaronburnett @VladSaigau @ST_World They forecast over 100 million high internet terminals by 2028 and over 200 million by 2030. Last week I had done modeling of SpaceX being able to reduce the cost and size of the Starlink mini to increase production and provide sub-$100 dishes to customers around the world. I analyzed that lowering cost and dropping bandwidth for lower tiers of still highly useful service would enable a global high speed internet market of 1 billion. However, this would be reached by scaling production doubling every year or so. 2026, double from 25000 dishes per day to 50000 per day. 2027 from 50000 to 100K per day, 2028 from 100k-200K per day. This would get to over 100 million. doubling dish prodution to 400K per day would enable adding 144M customers. The FCC has permitted increasing broadcast power for high speed internet by 8 times. SpaceX could acquire more spectrum. These would allow a smaller smartphone to double smartphone size devices to receive highspeed internet. Spacex can adjust pricing tiers for different countries and have a far wider range of services. They can also offer ad supported service plans, X payment and Grok bundles to all customers of high speed internet and direct to cellphone.
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nextbigfuture
nextbigfuture@nextbigfuture·
STMicroelectronics confirmed how I was modeling SpaceX Starlink high speed internet growth from now to 2030. @elonmusk @aaronburnett @VladSaigau @ST_World They forecast over 100 million high internet terminals by 2028 and over 200 million by 2030. Last week I had done modeling of SpaceX being able to reduce the cost and size of the Starlink mini to increase production and provide sub-$100 dishes to customers around the world. I analyzed that lowering cost and dropping bandwidth for lower tiers of still highly useful service would enable a global high speed internet market of 1 billion. However, this would be reached by scaling production doubling every year or so. 2026, double from 25000 dishes per day to 50000 per day. 2027 from 50000 to 100K per day, 2028 from 100k-200K per day. This would get to over 100 million. doubling dish prodution to 400K per day would enable adding 144M customers. The FCC has permitted increasing broadcast power for high speed internet by 8 times. SpaceX could acquire more spectrum. These would allow a smaller smartphone to double smartphone size devices to receive highspeed internet. Spacex can adjust pricing tiers for different countries and have a far wider range of services. They can also offer ad supported service plans, X payment and Grok bundles to all customers of high speed internet and direct to cellphone.
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nextbigfuture
nextbigfuture@nextbigfuture·
Tesla is at least at 33 unsupervised Robotaxi. This is 7 more than Friday. @elonmusk @robotaxi It would be great for Elon. @tesla and the Robotaxi team to give a statement on when the 200-300 total parked vehicles with Robotaxi labels or cybercabs will be added to Dallas, Houston and Austin
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nextbigfuture
nextbigfuture@nextbigfuture·
Aubrey de Grey about to talk
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nextbigfuture
nextbigfuture@nextbigfuture·
Berkeley aging conference. Streaming.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🚨🇺🇸 The U.S. may not be able to defend against hypersonic missiles. Major General Randy Manner, retired U.S. Army officer and defense analyst, says current technology cannot fully stop them. And no country has reliable defenses yet.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🚨🇮🇷 Public insults toward Iran could strengthen their resistance instead of weakening it. Major General Randy Manner, retired U.S. Army officer and defense analyst, says rhetoric like this pushes countries to double down. It serves no strategic purpose.

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nextbigfuture
nextbigfuture@nextbigfuture·
SpaceX Starlink can get a billion customers. Their total market is not only 50 million or their current 12 million. They can get 100X as many customers. This will drive more customers, revenue and profits. For the poorest people in rural India and Africa, SpaceX can match the $5 per month charge for a few mbps of speed by upgrading the standby mode that is $5 per month. V3 satellites will boost the speeds by 8X with FCC allowed higher power transmission. SpaceX can also reduce costs by providing ad supported plans and to provide X Money financial services. A few billion customers by owning the communication channel and devices has been the dream of Meta for years and Meta has spent about $50+ billion per year trying to get it. Their cost will be very low to get the larger capacity satellites. Whatever prices they need to charge to win customers, they can do it. They can also make way more than just the subscription revenue. @elonmusk There is way more value they can give customers and way more value they can make from customers.
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nextbigfuture
nextbigfuture@nextbigfuture·
Tesla is up to at least 25 Unsupervised vehicles in Texas Austin 19 Dallas 3 Houston 3 This is 6 unsupervised added today and the robotaxi tracker could be missing cars. There are parking lots with 80 robotaxi vehicles in each ready to add to the fleets. @RandyWKirk1 @SawyerMerritt If this the wave of those parked vehicles being added over the next few days to weeks, then by mid-May there could be 200-400 unsupervised robotaxi in Texas. There are hundrdeds of cybercabs that can be added as well. @elonmusk x.com/i/status/20476…
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nextbigfuture
nextbigfuture@nextbigfuture·
Q1 Earnings and AI Surprises for Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and TESLA Semi Mass Production. Google EPS of $5.11 beat expectations of $2.63. Revenue of $109.9B beat expectations of $107.2B Search: +16% YoY Q1 Youtube: +11.7% YoY Q1 Cloud: +50% YoY FY26 Capex 175B - 185B FY26 EPS: $11.7 Amazon Bedrock had 170% growth instead of 60%. This is showing the Amazon leading edge is growing faster.
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nextbigfuture@nextbigfuture·
California Democrats have a supermajority 75% of state house and senate. They can change the Billionaire tax at will with a 66% vote in state house and senate. They will force everyone to report all assets with huge penalties for underestimating. @RandyWKirk1 @elonmusk
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Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath

The Billionaire Tax is actually an Everyone Tax. The Billionaire Tax is a new tax proposal written by four professors who don't believe in the American dream. Some of them aren’t even American…go figure. Despite its name, it applies to every California resident who currently has assets or ever will. The creators named it the Billionaire Tax so you would get into a froth andwouldn't look closely at what it actually does to you. On page twenty-six, it explains how the government can convert to an Everyone Tax without voter approval. They can also adjust the tax to be a yearly tax, not just one time…again, without your approval. Here's how the tax would work: As a voter, you're being asked to approve a tax that would require you to: 1. list all your assets and the value of each, then submit them to the California Franchise Tax Board. 2. authorize the tax board to appraise your assets and confirm the value of each. 3. pay a penalty of up to forty percent of your tax bill if the board determines your reported value was too low in their opinion. 4. allow the tax board to subpoena your financial records from every one of your financial institutions for auditing. This Everyone Tax runs 34 pages of shifty language describing how the government plans to take your assets. Read the fine print and decide for yourself. If this were truly a billionaire tax, it would be 3 pages. It’s 34 pages so that it can create the mechanisms to steal from all of you.

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