NB

@PUNTERIQ @Conigman As a business you would focus all your attention on that, just like Sportsbet have. Yet they haven’t. Mystifying.

@nichbkr @Conigman I expect them to try catch up. Pretty much all earn the major bookies earnings reports are about how the future is sport and multis. It’s an awful product for punters, and they know it’s the future.

Years ago the TAB wanted you to win. Their business was mostly in the “pool” betting system. Like they currently do in Hong Kong. All bets are placed in the pool, and they take their % cut for “hosting” the pool. The more times a punter won, the more likely they are to re-invest. Creating turnover and more turnover means more commissions. TAB would put in ratings like “Read Ratings” in TAB’s to try help you spot a good chance. Now with more and more online corporate bookmakers their goal is for you to lose confidently. A way in doing this is paying your favourite ex footy star, radio show host or social media influencer to tip you. This is extremely successful because they are no longer just setting the odds and bet types, they are controlling who you follow. They trade off the trust you have with that influencer. They make you feel like your “part of the team”, when in fact they are large organisation trying to win your money, but at the same time having you enjoy the experience. They control the entire process, who you “copy”, what products you bet with and the prices said outcomes are. It’s actually quite genius for them, but horrible news for the mug punter who has no idea what is going on. The Multi Obsession Believe it or not , it wasn’t even racing that started the biggest shift in horse racing betting in modern times. It was the AFL and NRL partnering with bookies in million dollar deals. What the bookies realised win bets and line bets are fine, but most punters don’t get to excited by them. So we saw the evolution of many leg multis in sports betting. Combining multiple events and outcomes into one ticket that looks more like a lottery win than a sports betting ticket. This did a few things. It created the multi as we know it today. And by doing so it normalised small odds $1.30, $1.40, $1.50 for an event to occur. People started believing that a series of favourite outcomes combined to equal big odds is better than finding asingular event outcome. This normalisation has trickled into horse racing, where you will see punters take many leg multis on horse outcomes. What most punters don’t understand is the concept of compounding margins. Each event you “add to bet slip” already a costed in margin for the bookie. Each time you add a leg you are adding a further margin. Suddenly a 10% edge for the bookie can become 50%+. The chances of a punter finding enough EV with a 50% edge against them makes its near on impossible to win long term, unless they hit a huge amount of luck. It doesn’t mean every singular person will lose, but like the lottery winners, there are not many of them. The App Algorithm As previously mentioned bookies are now controlling the algorithm to see who you should “copy”. If someone is winning they can suppress their feed in the apps, if someone is a good loser they can boost them to be front of mind. None of this is chance. This is strategic planning and execution by the bookies. The Butterfly Effect (the perfect storm) These changes have created a butterfly effect. With more punters being influenced by influencers who normally tip favourites, and more copy bets of many leg multis (which usually have favourites as the anchor) we are seeing favoured runners shorten more than ever. You use to rarely see $1.30 odds, now you can see it every week , multiple times around the country. Bookies know the game is all about EV, and the more people taking $1.30 about $1.80-$2 chances, the better it is for them in the long run. But while it is creating a negative EV for mugs, it creates opportunity for those who can be patient, seek value and ride low strike rates. Because if a $2 chance is going around $1.5 or less it means there is value somewhere else in the betting market. Maybe a $10 chance is $18, or a $26 chance pays $71 (like Title Fighter- a best bet we tipped at Flemington). The Great De-Professionalisation: Why the "Dumber" Market is Your Biggest Edge We are currently witnessing the most aggressive shift in the racing landscape in thirty years. While most punters are distracted by the flashing lights of new apps, a fundamental restructuring of the market is happening right under their noses. The game hasn't just changed; it has been completely inverted. But for those paying attention, this is the greatest news possible: The dumber the market becomes, the higher the ceiling for those with a clue. How We Take Advantage of the New Landscape The horses haven't changed, a 10% chance to win is still a 10% chance. What has changed is the price you get. • Contrarian Indicators: When an influencer pumps a horse and the "dumb money" crunches it from $4.00 to $2.50, they aren't changing the horse's ability; they are simply inflating the price of every other runner in the race. • The "Social" Drift: We want more "copy bets." We want more "multi" hype. Every dollar placed on a "social lock" is a dollar that distorts the market in our favour, pushing the "Real Value" runners out to prices they should never be.

@PUNTERIQ @Conigman They’ve had years. It is not a new thing and they’ve barely showed any advancement. You summed it up. Awful product for punters and they still haven’t bothered to get it right. I’m not sticking up for them, they’re a bookie, I’m just completely amazed.

@PUNTERIQ @Conigman The TAB multi system is horrendous and I’m completely amazed about the lack of effort they have put into it to compared to main competitors.

@Conigman there is still pool betting but with all competition coming from the corporates they switched to a bigger focus on fixed odds betting. And then now multis.

@PUNTERIQ @Conigman TAB is still behind on multi’s. SB you can pick your odds and they’ll multiply into each other. TAB will chop odds based on some formula they have. Ridiculous. They are completely out of touch with multis and barely made any effort to fix it. In venue on terminals and app

@TravisOG5 Must have had to pay Campo back for their fav getting beat the race before. You have one and I’ll have one all good. What a joke. Insane no one polices it.

GP race 4 reverse Kevin Newman award for L Kennelly lead was there for him instead he wants to go that slow Warwick boots up and then sits there like a pot plant instead of being off and gone.

@TravisOG5 I just backed him at GP. Had the best run of the race leading and he keeps looking over his shoulder the whole last lap. Into the straight keeps looking over his shoulder. Favourite has been three wide the last lap on speed and still grabs him on the line. Crazily suspect. Joke.

@aboutasteph Complete narcissist. One of the most unappealing qualities to exist in a human.

@aboutasteph Go back through history. Some of the craziest peeps to have existed have had a stack of passionate followers. Incredibly strange to me. She comes across to me as completely batshit crazy so it still does surprise me as it does you. She is unhinged.

Abbie Chatfield man… I just don’t get the how she has fans 🤷‍♀️

@bruceaslade @CoolmoreAus @NewgateFarm @inglis_sales @BreednetNews I get it, but paying for future earnings potential from a 2yr old is still a lottery. History tells you the bulk of 2yr olds don’t train on and the late developing 2yr olds fair better. You’re still ‘hoping’. Great price for the vendors and I guess the buyers have the cash.

CHAYAN - record price explained For many, the $5.6m paid for Chayan by @CoolmoreAus from the @NewgateFarm consignment at last week’s @inglis_sales Chairman’s Sale is hard to fathom, so I thought I would explain why I had her valued at $4-5m before she walked in the ring: The key components to Chayan’s record price was: 1. her racing upside = age (2yo), limited starts (one prep & four starts) and her quality (@TRBHorseRacing had her Riesling win rated at 99.5 & she started favourite in the Slipper as a result. 🇦🇺 incredible prize-money levels a factor in here too 2. her pedigree = by Champion sire I Am Invincible from a Group winning daughter of another Champion sire Snitzel 3. her type, temperament & condition = Chayan is a quality commercial type, she has an incredibly relaxed demeanour, and @archibaldracing had her looking incredible - sound, lots of condition to work with racing forward, and a healthy coat to show she was converting her nutrition optimally Her final price was a combination of her residual value & her future racing value. Residual Value: $2.5m+ The sale of two Group winning I Am invincible fillies with similar profiles at last year’s Sale gave us a good guide to Chayan’s current residual value - Tiz Invincible & Estriella both brought $2.8m Racing Value: $2m+ @TRBHorseRacing assessment as an example had Chayan the top rated 2yo filly of the season 99.5, in line with the top 2yos fillies of last season: Marhoona 100 - won the Group 1 Galaxy this season as a 3yo & $800k prizemoney Tempted 98.4 - won $4.438m this season, winning the Group 1 Surround & placing in the $20m Everest. With the stamina in her dam side, and her strong finishes, running a strong 1200m-1600m is possible for Chayan. This sees her 3yo campaign alone (both Marhoona & Tempted will race on next season), open to Group 1 races such as: $1m Golden Rose $750k Flight Stakes $20m Everest $2m Coolmore Stud Stakes $3m MM Sunlight or Guineas $750k Surround $1m Australian Guineas Watch the incredible theatre of Chayan’s record sale here (and note her temperament) 🎥 @BreednetNews

@MatthewSandblom @allovertheform History will tell you that she highly unlikely to come back as a 3yr old and do anything otherworldly. They are few and far between and it’s not like she’s unbeaten and getting better. If they genuinely think they’ll recoup it on the track they are ‘hoping’ she might.

@allovertheform The big money wasn’t for her broodmare value it was for her racing value. She is a 2yo who appears to have group 1 level ability and plenty of time to prove it.

IF A BROODMARE IS WORTH $5.6 MILLION THEN STOP RUNNING THE INDUSTRY LIKE A DAYCARE CENTRE If investors are willing to risk $5.6 million on a broodmare, then senior management in racing need to stop behaving like overpaid children hiding inside an old boys club that mistakes politics for leadership. Because this industry has a serious problem. The money has grown up. The leadership has not. You cannot demand global investment while operating with the professionalism of a schoolyard committee fuelled by ego, insecurity and backstabbing. At some point the pretending has to stop. A $5.6 million broodmare means this is no longer a hobby industry pretending to be big business. This is real capital. Real risk. Real pressure. Real commercial exposure. Yet parts of racing administration still operate like the biggest achievement of the week is surviving another board meeting without crying, leaking information or blaming someone else for their own incompetence. That is the embarrassing reality. Too many senior figures in racing act like leadership means controlling people instead of building industries. Too many are addicted to internal politics because politics is easier than performance. Easier than vision. Easier than accountability. And the second serious money enters the room, the cracks become impossible to hide. Because investors do not put $5.6 million into broodmares to watch emotionally fragile executives play territorial games like children fighting over who owns the sandbox. They expect adults. They expect operators. They expect strategic leadership capable of functioning under pressure. Instead, what they often see is panic, ego management, self preservation and endless political rubbish from people who would not survive five minutes in a genuinely ruthless commercial environment. The breeding industry keeps talking about international relevance while parts of management still behave like regional committee captains terrified of losing influence at the local pony club. It is absurd. The bloodstock market has moved into global financial territory while some of the people overseeing the industry still think professionalism means wearing a blazer and talking slowly into a microphone. Meanwhile the real world is moving at full speed. Investors are analysing risk. Studs are competing globally. Capital is becoming more selective. Confidence is becoming harder to hold. And nothing destroys confidence faster than leadership that looks immature, emotional and structurally weak. Because here is the truth nobody wants printed. The greatest threat to racing is not the economy. It is not wagering. It is not competition from other sports. It is an industry filled with people demanding elite investment while behaving like accountability is a personal attack. At $5.6 million a broodmare, the game changes completely. And if senior management cannot evolve beyond childish politics, ego driven behaviour and amateur hour leadership, then eventually serious investors will stop questioning the horses and start questioning why they are funding a system still mentally trapped in primary school.

@streetruffian Racing Australia very poor with updating. Happens a lot. Also happens a lot with people that have made the original purchase and then sold off shares, even if their ownership is 0%, it’s apparently easier just to leave them listed.

Good horse Navy Pilot but you have to wonder, given old mate has been in an American jail since July last year, how he can still be listed as the owner.

@dsr150250 @TimjboAU The government has turned them on each other. Pretty sad.

@TimjboAU Imagine putting yourself repeatedly on the frontline Trained like a finely tuned athlete to kill an enemy that followed no rules knew no boundaries Who murdered your comrades in cold blood Saved your brothers in arms Awarded our greatest honor On return eaten by his own 🙏🇦🇺

Jason Peters used to say he loved Ben Roberts-Smith like a brother. In recent days, the former Special Air Service Regiment trooper, once his friend’s rival for the Victoria Cross, has emerged as the man who might send Mr Roberts-Smith to jail for life. But as one of the lead prosecution witnesses, the veteran known as Person 4 will enter the witness box with a war record that both enhances and harms his credibility: he, too, is accused of murdering prisoners. The allegation is not military or media gossip. It was made by the same barrister who convinced a Federal Court judge that Mr Roberts-Smith committed war crimes in Afghanistan, Nicholas Owens, now a judge in the same court. “Your Honour, to be clear, we do allege that Person 4 is a murderer,” Mr Owens said during a defamation lawsuit in 2022. Mr Peters, a pseudonym, will not go to jail for murder. Formal allegations tendered to court on Friday suggest he has been promised immunity for war crimes in return for testifying against Mr Roberts-Smith, who has been charged with five counts of war crimes — murder. editions.thenightly.com.au/ccidist-replic…

@PeterLawrence18 Any chance Observer was losing form? Tentyris cardiac arrhythmia and didn’t perform well last start? Surely had something to do with it.

Everything that is wrong about the current funding model right here. Punters raped and pillaged and an incredibly rich tradition of horse betting completely destroyed to fund an insane prizemoney largesse and with it spiralling yearling prices. An absolute boon for a (very) few elite trainers and jockeys and breeders. Here we see two colts that 30 years ago would never have been entertained for stud duties with their very modest CV’s, boasting just one open age Gp1 between them, and that in a pretty average Lightning Stakes. No wonder the high quality mares just completely dominate WFA racing in general. By and large they only compete against geldings, who of course have been denied the use of steroids to boot. 👎👎👎👎👎👎👎

@princerubiton Agreed!

They’ve got to bin Sweet Caroline before the Quokka. The Everest does it, the Boston Red Sox do it… it’s been done to death. There’s more than one song out there.

@princerubiton Agreed

Horse to follow is King’s Secret. If it gets a jockey upgrade I’d back it anywhere. Adkins now 0 from his last 26 Saturday rides. Midweeks 0 from last 19 rides.

@robbieg696969 @7horseracing Bowman got Aleiana beat. Make no mistake about that one.

@7horseracing Thanks for getting Aeliana beat in the cox plate

One year on from his brilliant Champagne Stakes win, Nepotism has been retired with a career at stud ahead 💚

@jambo112022 He sat wide the trip in pouring rain. Jockey did him no favours at all. Terrible terrible ride.

Ballyfad horrid disappointing a stayer fair but he wasn’t interested today

@Nic_Ashman Because it’s a handicap and she’s a potential weight for age superstar. Why would you bother with horses that would normally not get anywhere near you? The placings tell that story.

Anyone still wondering why Autumn Glow didn’t run in the Doncaster?

@davepband @SallaSean I get staking plans etc, but it often highlights to me people aren’t confident. If she’s clearly on top why back something else?

@davepband @SallaSean I’ll never understand the logic of having something clearly on top but not backing it because of odds. Not saying it’s occurred here but the number of times I see someone take another horse because there wasn’t value in the fav. Take it or don’t bet.

It just seems typical of the current betting landscape having Sheza Alibi between $1.8 and $2 across the board with the corporate bookmakers. She has that brilliant last start rating, which - at the weights today - stands out. But as good as she has been, none of her prior runs were strong enough to win this race, even with 49kg. Shez also never seen worse than a Dead track. Win, lose or draw, it looks fraught with danger to me.