PUNTER IQ

This is 5 ⭐️ Tweet It’s called choice architecture Bookies funnel you into the product type they want - why many bonuses second and third are pegged to Fixed Odds. If bookies are pushing you in one direction, ask why, and normally do the opposite.

@nichbkr @Conigman The “smartest” bookie in the room is Dabble. multis influencers copy bets fixed odds no traditional exotics

@PUNTERIQ @Conigman As a business you would focus all your attention on that, just like Sportsbet have. Yet they haven’t. Mystifying.

Years ago the TAB wanted you to win. Their business was mostly in the “pool” betting system. Like they currently do in Hong Kong. All bets are placed in the pool, and they take their % cut for “hosting” the pool. The more times a punter won, the more likely they are to re-invest. Creating turnover and more turnover means more commissions. TAB would put in ratings like “Read Ratings” in TAB’s to try help you spot a good chance. Now with more and more online corporate bookmakers their goal is for you to lose confidently. A way in doing this is paying your favourite ex footy star, radio show host or social media influencer to tip you. This is extremely successful because they are no longer just setting the odds and bet types, they are controlling who you follow. They trade off the trust you have with that influencer. They make you feel like your “part of the team”, when in fact they are large organisation trying to win your money, but at the same time having you enjoy the experience. They control the entire process, who you “copy”, what products you bet with and the prices said outcomes are. It’s actually quite genius for them, but horrible news for the mug punter who has no idea what is going on. The Multi Obsession Believe it or not , it wasn’t even racing that started the biggest shift in horse racing betting in modern times. It was the AFL and NRL partnering with bookies in million dollar deals. What the bookies realised win bets and line bets are fine, but most punters don’t get to excited by them. So we saw the evolution of many leg multis in sports betting. Combining multiple events and outcomes into one ticket that looks more like a lottery win than a sports betting ticket. This did a few things. It created the multi as we know it today. And by doing so it normalised small odds $1.30, $1.40, $1.50 for an event to occur. People started believing that a series of favourite outcomes combined to equal big odds is better than finding asingular event outcome. This normalisation has trickled into horse racing, where you will see punters take many leg multis on horse outcomes. What most punters don’t understand is the concept of compounding margins. Each event you “add to bet slip” already a costed in margin for the bookie. Each time you add a leg you are adding a further margin. Suddenly a 10% edge for the bookie can become 50%+. The chances of a punter finding enough EV with a 50% edge against them makes its near on impossible to win long term, unless they hit a huge amount of luck. It doesn’t mean every singular person will lose, but like the lottery winners, there are not many of them. The App Algorithm As previously mentioned bookies are now controlling the algorithm to see who you should “copy”. If someone is winning they can suppress their feed in the apps, if someone is a good loser they can boost them to be front of mind. None of this is chance. This is strategic planning and execution by the bookies. The Butterfly Effect (the perfect storm) These changes have created a butterfly effect. With more punters being influenced by influencers who normally tip favourites, and more copy bets of many leg multis (which usually have favourites as the anchor) we are seeing favoured runners shorten more than ever. You use to rarely see $1.30 odds, now you can see it every week , multiple times around the country. Bookies know the game is all about EV, and the more people taking $1.30 about $1.80-$2 chances, the better it is for them in the long run. But while it is creating a negative EV for mugs, it creates opportunity for those who can be patient, seek value and ride low strike rates. Because if a $2 chance is going around $1.5 or less it means there is value somewhere else in the betting market. Maybe a $10 chance is $18, or a $26 chance pays $71 (like Title Fighter- a best bet we tipped at Flemington). The Great De-Professionalisation: Why the "Dumber" Market is Your Biggest Edge We are currently witnessing the most aggressive shift in the racing landscape in thirty years. While most punters are distracted by the flashing lights of new apps, a fundamental restructuring of the market is happening right under their noses. The game hasn't just changed; it has been completely inverted. But for those paying attention, this is the greatest news possible: The dumber the market becomes, the higher the ceiling for those with a clue. How We Take Advantage of the New Landscape The horses haven't changed, a 10% chance to win is still a 10% chance. What has changed is the price you get. • Contrarian Indicators: When an influencer pumps a horse and the "dumb money" crunches it from $4.00 to $2.50, they aren't changing the horse's ability; they are simply inflating the price of every other runner in the race. • The "Social" Drift: We want more "copy bets." We want more "multi" hype. Every dollar placed on a "social lock" is a dollar that distorts the market in our favour, pushing the "Real Value" runners out to prices they should never be.

@nichbkr @Conigman Mark Read on one of the @WolfdenApp podcasts made the point how TAB have the most resources but have always been behind on tech. Quite amazing really.

@PUNTERIQ @Conigman They’ve had years. It is not a new thing and they’ve barely showed any advancement. You summed it up. Awful product for punters and they still haven’t bothered to get it right. I’m not sticking up for them, they’re a bookie, I’m just completely amazed.

@nichbkr @Conigman I expect them to try catch up. Pretty much all earn the major bookies earnings reports are about how the future is sport and multis. It’s an awful product for punters, and they know it’s the future.

@PUNTERIQ @Conigman The TAB multi system is horrendous and I’m completely amazed about the lack of effort they have put into it to compared to main competitors.

@Batmanwinskedo1 definitely agree information was traded and conversations had but the business model wasn’t to give punters good information then accept the bets , eg betting against themselves. That what happens now. Bookies pay “experts” to tip you, then accept the bet. That’s very different.

Bookies had conversations with punters, we were all real people, and it’s how information traded. But keep in mind I might tell a punter I don’t like the fav, I prefer the 2nd fav, chances are I’m betting top odds the fav, unders my pick. If they still like the fav, they’re there, I have their money. You have to work the betting ring.

Can you imagine telling someone in the 1990s betting ring that in 2026 that punters in the future would take their tips from the bookie - the person trying to take their money. Wild times.

@theformstudent that was the case. and is the case still in HK.

@PUNTERIQ If that was the case the take out would have been lower and no rounding down

@PUNTERIQ Lol..I been saying this for yrs..amazing some of the shit punters listen to thinking it gives them an edge..lunatics

@Batmanwinskedo1 You are an ex bookie. So you would tip your customers constant winners to win money off you? How did you survive?

@PUNTERIQ Well yes, happened all the time.

@Conigman there is still pool betting but with all competition coming from the corporates they switched to a bigger focus on fixed odds betting. And then now multis.

@PUNTERIQ Why did they change from the turnover model?

it really depends how you bet. it’s a lower margin product. bookmakers want punters to take fixed odds because the margins - most of the time. if you are a punter trying to beat SP then yes it can not be ideal - if you are good at it, however many who are good at it are getting restricted.

@PUNTERIQ Never found tote odds superior to fixed. Might be just me?

@rationalaussie Odds are that if someone is taking 8 leg Sportsbet multis they are down overall - which they don’t get a tax right off like the business - unless they are a professional punter losing.

Australia is a country where if you win $500k on an 8 leg multi on SportsBet you won't have to pay any tax, but if you sell your business for $500k you'll have to give the government half. What are we incentivising here? How fucking retarded do you have to be to run your country this way?

@PUNTERIQ There isn't a single thing in 2026 race betting that anyone in the 90s could have believed

@PUNTERIQ Giving the fox a key to the chook pen.

Most punters think the main objective is finding winners, and they live by stupid sayings like “cant go broke backing winners”. Well you can. Racing success is about the margin between strike rate and return dividends. Eg. You can back a winner 40% of the time but if the average price is $1.60 you’re losing. You can back a winners only 8.51% and be winning 24.19% POT because the average winning price is $14.13. You are going to experience the “thrill of a winner” many more times at 40% but lose. Bookmakers want you to live on strike rate and ignore price. And many do. And that is why most punters catch the bus while bookies drive European cars.

@theformstudent It’s not about “everyone winning”. It’s about tipping more winners, means the masses invest again and again. Then they get their % commission. But for them to reinvest they need to back winners. It gave the TAB an incentive to help punters find a winner.

@PUNTERIQ So if everyone was winning where’s the takeout come from?

@PUNTERIQ @QuaddieKiller Your exact point is why corporates love the free bet for 2nd or 3rd customers takes fixed odds price which is inferior to tote/sp products every time they back winner they are reducing their margin.Occasionally they will get top price but more often than not taking unders.