Nickogus

787 posts

Nickogus

Nickogus

@nikogus10

Katılım Şubat 2015
764 Takip Edilen47 Takipçiler
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂@TXMCtrades·
Over the holidays my son of 12yrs was complaining about starting baseball in the spring. He has been playing since he was tiny. Had spent the past two years getting hitting/fielding coaching and struggled to see his effort translated into game performance. I told him I only wanted him to do it if he was still having fun, that success takes a lot of work before it pays off, and that quitting baseball meant he would need to find a new physical hobby. He decided to stick with it and finally began practicing more on his own, without my encouragement. Tee work in the back yard, playing catch off the wall of the house. This spring was the BEST season he has EVER played. Smashing the ball all over the field, making multiple great catches in the outfield, and displaying the best arm on the team. Held the leadoff spot the whole season. And now might be chosen for his first all-star selection. I am SO PROUD of him. Just had to brag for a minute because I've watched this kid work his ass off for a long time and the game is beginning to slow down for him. It's so rewarding to witness. Couldn't be happier for my not-so-little dude. ❤️
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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@tradermatt increments once it takes child <20min to fall asleep after lights out at least a couple of times. Took me a couple of months but seems to be working for now, touch wood. Also lights out is quiet time, no fxcking around chatting, playing games etc. Can stroke hair etc, that helps.
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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@tradermatt Mine are older but same problem and don't know if it translates to young kids. Wake up same time every morning no matter what, get =>10min sunshine ASAP upon waking. Do x min of reading every night. Lights out is 15min before this late sleep time, only going back by 15min...
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Matt
Matt@tradermatt·
no matter how tired my son is, no matter how consistent we have been with routine, we still fight a good hour and a half to get him to sleep is this normal for a 21 month old? has anyone got any tips to get him down sooner?
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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@discernableco Say what you will about Tucker, his monologues are a spectacle, seriously. Plus he's rigidly anti-war - whether or not it serves a deeper/ more nefarious purpose i don't know, but he has that going for him where guys like Triggernometry do not.
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discernable
discernable@discernableco·
Anyone else struggle to listen to Triggernometry, Diary of a CEO, Modern Wisdom, and Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory? I don't know why it's so hard for me. I keep going back because of the amazing guests. But I hate it. There's something there that disturbs me. I don't struggle with Lex Fridman, Heretics Podcast, Joe Rogan, Huberman Lab, or Theo Vonn. I would never listen to Karl Stefanovic, Candace Owens or Tucker Carlson. I found Call Her Daddy really boring. Shawn Ryan is interesting but from a different world to me. I feel kind of lame even just listening in his masculine presence. The only one I'm sure of is Chris Williamson (Modern Wisdom). That's just straight up jealousy inside of me that I will hopefully get over one day. There are many podcasts that I don't like. But those I named at the top disturb me. I don't know why.
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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@discernableco @Bryden25255337 There's no push back on war hawks, at all. Except for the last few weeks where KK has expressed concern with the latest round of the Iran war, he's never seen a war the MIC doesn't like. Bait you in with critique of culture war stuff then switch to pro-war propaganda.
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discernable
discernable@discernableco·
I thought I was just annoyed at Francis Foster and him always being the annoying foil. But now I'm annoyed at KK too. I don't know what's wrong with me (or them) but I am trusting them less and less. Probably underserved, and they are mega popular, so I'm in a minority, but it's true.
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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@TXMCtrades @LukeGromen estimated mid-April as being the point at which calamity was baked in, and predicted Q2 as the time we'd expect a whoosh down in equities. Is this a fair summary Luke and is there anything that's changed your mind?
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𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂@TXMCtrades·
In February, I read that by late March, this would be a global calamity. Then I read that it would be a global calamity by April. Now we're in mid April and I still hear that it's probably just a couple/few more weeks before the rubber really hits the road. I am a complete square one numpty when it comes to the energy market, so can someone explain to me how this isn't already the unmitigated global disaster emergency that everyone said it would be? I was under the impression we would be well into seeing widespread social unrest and economies crumbling in on themselves by now. Is that… next week? Like really ... when??? Explain to me like I'm a moron.
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Jacob Winograd
Jacob Winograd@BiblicalAnarchy·
Can anyone point to one thing @coldxman "wrecked" @ComicDaveSmith on? People bring up the Wesley Clark memo without understanding its importance The memo is just part of a mountain of evidence showing the NeoCons wanted regime change in the Middle East for years...
James Lindsay, anti-Communist@ConceptualJames

Coleman Hughes, who is quite young, already massively humiliated Dave, and it did nothing to curb his influence. I reject the premise. You don't actually know how any of this works or what's going on.

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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@citrini @LukeGromen assuming this is true, does it affect your approx. date of catastrophe of mid-April?
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Citrini
Citrini@citrini·
The implications of early passage shouldn’t be extrapolated too far yet, ships just leaving the strait is different than ships being free to both leave the Gulf and safely go back in to load more cargo. Just a clarification.
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Citrini
Citrini@citrini·
The difference in Strait activity from when #3 first arrived / began observing the strait about 4-5 days ago to today is stark. Traffic has meaningfully picked up - there are still “dark” runs and ships transiting without AIS turned on, but there’s a lot more going along the coast of Oman. At least 15 ships have crossed, including at least 3 VLCCs. When we arrived, virtually none were going through. Then a trickle through the Qeshm channel. It’s meaningful now, could be talking low double digit percent of pre-conflict volume. Meanwhile, expectations for a US operation involving “boots on the ground” within the next week or two are still high among locals. When analyst #3 first got to the strait we were hopeful we’d get a clear cut answer - bullish or bearish, open or closed, war or deal. It soon became clear that was the wrong framework through which to view this trip. On the same day that we learned it was the broad expectation of nearly everyone in the region - from locals to informed parties - that US ground troops would be launching an operation (“boots on the ground!”), we also observed multiple ships beginning to cross the strait. Soon they weren’t just limited to the Qeshm channel. It is clear to us that this isn’t as much a story in isolation as it is a story about the multipolar world and how it’s rapidly changing from what we’re used to. It’s a story about parallel warfare and diplomacy, US promises for the “Stone Age” in tandem with Allies’ seeking new venues for negotiation, and the changing global climate that necessitates this balance. Before, it would have been unlikely to imagine a world where Japan, the EU and other US allies were negotiating with a country the US is directly in conflict in to secure passage and work on agreements while the US still maintained footing for an escalation of kinetic warfare. Now, that’s simply how the world works. These countries must deal with the issues imposed, as the US won’t be sorting it out on their behalf. It’s undeniable the world is very different now and viewing this conflict through the lens of the past 50 years is a flawed approach. On Sunday, we will release our report that covers in depth what we’ve learned, how complex the situation is and what investment implications and nuances exist that have longer term implications than the next 100 points on SPX.
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𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂@TXMCtrades·
Currently rebuilding my datasets and charting so I can record a new @AlphaBetaSoup_ in the next couple days.
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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@NealGardner_ Offset by having an extra round of KOs, which is infinitely better. But yes, lots of dead rubbers in the first half
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Neal 🇦🇺
Neal 🇦🇺@NealGardner_·
Just realised that three teams from most groups will qualify for the World Cup KOs. Pretty much renders the group stages pointless.
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Eric Weinstein
Eric Weinstein@ericweinstein·
First of all: I don’t know. I clearly don’t understand this war at all. But then again I didn’t understand the “Aircraft carrier group invincibility theory” either. This war in 2026 needed to happen shortly after the 1983 Beirut Barracks Bombing, which brought suicide bombing from LTTE to the Middle East. But Iran is a serious player so we put it off and decided we didn’t know who did it exactly. Which I suspect is false. I also think Iran has been a joint U.S. / U.K. responsibility issue since Operation Boot and Operation Ajax under Kermit the Roosevelt threw Iran into decades of tyranny that continue to this day, under the Pottery Barn principle of “You break it, you bought it.” But who remembers how we got here? No one. The internet has decided “It’s Israel bro. Watch Tucker.” So, no. I don’t understand Trump, Netanyahu or Hegseth. I have no idea. Whatever I thought was wrong. My ship sailed away long ago. We got committed to this particular path by our elected leader. So be it. It’s now important not to lose. Like very extra specially doubly important. And it’s probably important to listen even more to @PalmerLuckey than I already do. And re-reread that f*****g Yeats poem for the nth time.
Eric Weinstein tweet media
marc fishman@marcafishman

@ericweinstein Eric, four weeks, so far. are we that attention deficit that even you think that's too long to take down a regional power, who has been entrenching themselves, against the world for 47 yrs. like asking the question of why does Gaza look the way it does without understanding.

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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@ericweinstein @LukeGromen Piers a week or so ago that this was super brave of Trump because he's freeing the Persian people even at the potential cost of American serviceman, made my jaw drop. All the anti-war people knew this was the risk while you cheered it on, and now you're talking about the risks...
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Eric Weinstein
Eric Weinstein@ericweinstein·
Nobody’s talking about an American “Suez Moment”. Or a “Fanucci Moment”, where Don Trump becomes Don Fanucci. Because, what would that would mean on this crowded 🌍? Israel must win EVERY war, EVERY single time just to survive. The US HAS to win for reasons of 🌍 stability.
Eric Weinstein tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇮🇷🇺🇸 When the world’s most important oil artery starts to close, you have two choices: de-escalate… or double down. Right now, Trump is very clearly choosing door number two by sending 2,200 Marines halfway across the world aboard an amphibious assault group. The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit is what the military likes to call a crisis-response force, which sounds tidy and controlled until you remember what crises actually look like. They spiral, they expand, and they rarely stay contained to the neat objectives drawn up in briefing rooms. And make no mistake, the Strait of Hormuz is not a neat problem. It’s a narrow, volatile corridor where oil tankers crawl through waters barely wider than a city commute, all while drones buzz overhead, missiles wait on hidden launchers, and fast attack boats linger. A Marine Expeditionary Unit isn’t there to observe. It’s built to seize ground, hold it, and call in overwhelming firepower while doing it. That matters, because once you introduce a force designed for amphibious assault into a place like this, you’re no longer just protecting shipping lanes. You’re preparing for scenarios that go well beyond escort duty. Take Kharg Island, Iran’s oil lifeline. It’s small, exposed, and absurdly important, the kind of place military planners circle on maps because whoever controls it controls 90% of Iran's oil exports. Putting Marines anywhere near it isn’t subtle. It’s strategic brinkmanship with a very real chance of becoming something hotter. The Marine Corps has spent years redesigning itself for exactly this kind of environment. Small, dispersed teams slipping into contested coastal zones, feeding targeting data back to ships and aircraft, turning geography into a weapon. It’s clever, modern, and, on paper, efficient. In practice, it also lowers the threshold for escalation. Because those small teams don’t operate in isolation. They’re the front edge of a much larger machine, one that includes fighter jets, missile platforms, and naval strike groups, all waiting for coordinates to turn into explosions. Once that machine starts moving in earnest, the line between “keeping the strait open” and “expanding the conflict” gets very blurry, very quickly. And Iran, for its part, has spent years perfecting the art of making itself hard to hit and easy to underestimate. Mobile launchers, decentralized attacks, persistent drone strikes, this is not an opponent that folds neatly when confronted with superior firepower. If anything, it thrives in the kind of messy, drawn-out confrontation that this deployment risks becoming. Which raises the question nobody in a uniformed press briefing is eager to answer: What’s the actual endgame here? Because “reopening the Strait of Hormuz” sounds like a clear objective until you start unpacking what it requires. Neutralizing launch sites. Securing ports. Deterring naval harassment. Possibly inserting forces onto land to make all of that stick. Each step makes a certain kind of tactical sense. Together, they start to look a lot like the early chapters of a much larger war.

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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@sidlowe @valtinoboy You could engage his arguments too Sid, and you know he is thinking your country is Spain given the majority of your work is about Spain and you've lived there for ages. Argentina played reasonably low ranked countries in the lead up in 22 as well (these countries likely lower).
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Sid Lowe
Sid Lowe@sidlowe·
@valtinoboy England were in the finalisima? Fuck, why didn’t anyone tell me?
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Sid Lowe
Sid Lowe@sidlowe·
Argentina playing Mauritania and Zambia…
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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@TXMCtrades @BretWeinstein was recently validated on the mechanism of aging. Has to happen in order to suppress making tons of tumours. That's a poor summary but directionally correct (I think).
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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@alexandrosM Is it the circle of ppl in the new Uni of Austin? Bari Weiss is and Petetson was (I think?) there. Make me think he's got plugged into all the zio nonsense. Plus is Shellenberger there too? His recent article on Epstein working for himself was a bit strange in some places.
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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@peterboghossian How long until the robots doing spin kicks in that Chinese exhibition become exponentially more dexterous, affordable and capable of downloading the master plummer app with the press of a button and then start doing all the plumbing for you and your neighbours houses?
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Nickogus
Nickogus@nikogus10·
@mmeJen @narendramodi Related, I started a conversation about Israel/Pal with an Indian parent at my kids school - i think she identifies with the Israel cause because of the issues Hindus have with Muslims in Kashmir I think? I would've thought she'd identify with Pal coz of Indian history with UK...
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Narendra Modi
Narendra Modi@narendramodi·
I will be undertaking a State Visit to Israel today and tomorrow. Our nations share a robust and multifaceted Strategic Partnership. Ties have significantly strengthened in the last few years. I will be holding talks with PM Netanyahu, in which we will discuss ways to strengthen cooperation across diverse fields. I will also meet President Isaac Herzog, President of Israel. This evening, I will be addressing the Israeli Parliament, Knesset. This is a tribute to the strong parliamentary and democratic ties that connect us. I will also interact with the Indian diaspora, who have made a big contribution in strengthening the India-Israel friendship. @netanyahu @Isaac_Herzog nm-4.com/D5ncr1
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