Nima Fazeli

⭕️ Robert Pape vs. the “Joe Kent Plan”: Is There a Third Way Out of the Iran Escalation Trap? 🔸Joe Kent, a former senior Trump administration official who resigned in protest over the Iran war, has proposed a third path absent a deal with Iran— walk away from active military escalation, keep sanctions in place, and let regional powers negotiate bilateral deals over Hormuz passage with Iran. 🔸Professor Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago and author of the Escalation Trap Substack, says Kent’s plan doesn’t stop Iran from becoming the fourth center of world power, though it may slow it down slightly. ▪️“There’s no actual way to stop Iran from exerting more power… Donald Trump has doomed us to a trap,” Pape told Breaking Points. ▪️On the economy, Professor Pape says Kent’s plan doesn’t necessarily reopen the Strait for Gulf oil exporters — meaning the global economic damage continues regardless. ▪️His conclusion is that Kent is choosing a fork in the road, but is not escaping the trap Trump built for the United States by entering “this catastrophic disaster, [which] will probably go down certainly the worst since Vietnam.” ▪️“Vietnam did not wreck the world’s economy. The 2003 Iraq war did not wreck the world’s economy… This is all on his back,” the Professor said. “He’s given Iran actual knowledge they did not have before — they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America.”

How come they all have the exact same head shot from the exact same photo shoot? Did they all get these professional photos taken together? Or just another coincidence I'm sure.

Imposing a blockade is literally the textbook definition of aggression. Article 3(c) of UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 (the Definition of Aggression) is crystal clear: “The blockade of the ports or coasts of a State by the armed forces of another State” qualifies as an act of aggression. As such, it is a straightforward violation of the ceasefire. Iran’s restriction of transit through the Strait of Hormuz is a fundamentally different matter. It has not closed any ports or declared a general blockade. Rather, it has imposed a preventive restriction on hostile vessels transiting a narrow waterway that runs through its own territorial waters. This measure constitutes a lawful exercise of Iran’s right to self-defense under Article 51, taken in response to an unprovoked illegal armed attack and in the face of unprecedented existential threats. This is also fully consistent with Iran’s long-held position on the principle of “innocent passage,” which governs passage through the Strait of Hormuz. For decades Iran has maintained - in line with the 1958 Geneva Convention on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone and its own domestic legislation (notably the 1993 Act on the Maritime Areas of the Islamic Republic of Iran) - that the right of innocent passage does not extend to vessels that threaten its security or engage in hostile acts. In a strategic chokepoint like Hormuz, where the waterway cuts directly through Iranian territorial waters, Tehran has always reserved the sovereign right to regulate or deny passage to non-innocent ships. So, this is not a new position; it is the consistent, lawful application of a position Iran has articulated without any meaningful objection since the 1970s and 1980s, rooted in the applicable treaty framework and customary international law.

Blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire. Striking a commercial vessel and taking its crew hostage is an even greater violation. Iran knows how to neutralize restrictions, how to defend its interests, and how to resist bullying.

I am in Abu Dhabi ahead of a two-day tour of the UAE, KSA, and Qatar, today and tomorrow. I come with three messages for our Gulf partners: ▫️ We stand in full solidarity in the face of Iran’s indiscriminate, unjustifiable, and unlawful attacks. ▫️ We are a reliable partner for the Gulf countries and are ready to contribute. ▫️ By working together, we can support a comprehensive strategy for lasting peace in the Middle East through negotiation and diplomacy.

I hope speculation and rumors about yet another extension of the ceasefire to reach a deal with Iran are off base. To me, President Trump’s position is clear. I fear the Iranians will play the same old game they always play, dragging things out by doing things like making menial concessions. I believe the bottom line for President Trump is: - No enrichment - American control of the approximately 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium - The opening of the Strait of Hormuz without interference from Iran - Iran must abandon its long-range ballistic missile program and any effort to develop a nuclear weapon - And Iran must cease support for all terrorists proxies in the region This would allow Iran to exist as a nation but not as the largest state sponsor of terrorism. If there is no deal, it is time to finish the job.