El Cojonero
3.3K posts

El Cojonero
@noRegrekt
Paper trading fortune maker. Heavyweight pretzel baker 🥨. Not financial advice. Do NOT trade based on my tweets.



















Former SpaceX astronaut Garrett Reisman reveals the single prism Elon Musk runs every major decision through "He measures pretty much every major decision by whether or not it brings the day when we have a self-sustainable colony on Mars sooner or later" "That's the prism by which he makes every single decision he makes" "He's got an idea and he'll keep pushing, and he gives us aggressive timelines that we have to work to" "We work really hard to try to meet them. It's hard when you're doing stuff that's this complicated to predict exactly how long it's going to take" "We end up falling a little bit behind, but we do our best"


Bitcoin bitcoin:native regained $77,000 today but remains in the descending pattern like the last cycle in April 2022. If the pattern were to repeat identically we should see Bitcoin fall again tomorrow before this weekly candlestick is complete. Then the descent will slow over the coming two weeks, before beginning its steep drop in June 2026, bottoming around October 2026 at $19,000.







In so many of these metrics where Poland is ranked 1st - Romania is often right behind (or ahead). But you rarely hear about it. Examples 👇 - Polish average salaries grew 2x in last 10 years. But it grew 3x in Romania. - Adjusted for inflation, Poland's income per capita is up 90% since 2004. Romania is up near 140% (top in EU). x.com/EU_Eurostat/st… - Polish equities index $EPOL had an amazing last 12 months up 30%. But Romanian equities index #BET is up 88%. - Most international financial headlines on Romania talks about it's deficit situation. Poland's deficit is no better but we rarely hear about it. x.com/MacroJason/sta… - Romania hasn't defaulted or restructured a sovereign bond in 93 years. Poland did so 44 years ago. linkedin.com/feed/update/ur… - Poland's English proficiency is impressively ranked 15th place globally. But Romanian is ranked 11th. (Similar on IT talent per capita). - Poland is one of the more energy independent countries in the EU. But Romania is the largest nat gas producer in the EU. x.com/MacroJason/sta… I'm still developing my thesis on why Romania is so over looked relative to Poland by international investors. Some existing ideas 👇 - Lower quality governance and institutions (though the reality is that over a long enough timeline, the quality of the government reflects the quality of the people) - Polish cities and infrastructure is shiny and modern. Romanian infra seems at least 30% behind. You sense it from the moment your land in the airport. - Gypsies really caused a lot of damage to Romania's reputation abroad. - Overall lower sense of civic duty, discipline and reliability across the society. More 'leaving things till the last moment' and corner cutting mindset. (Maybe Poles are better with these things as they traded with Germans more historically). Despite the above, I still see deep value in certain Romanian assets vs Poland. If you followed my account for a while you know what I'm doing with my own portfolio (gradual rotation from Poland to Romania since 2022 👉 x.com/MacroJason/sta…) On top of above, there is a crucial area that I think Romania (and Balkans) has a higher potential of leading Poland in over the coming decades: geopolitical flexibility in a multipolar world. Will leave it to a future post.








The power of decentralization. In Bucharest basically everybody has one AC unit per room in the apartment. Cheaper to buy, install and serivce than bigger, whole-flat capable units, and more resilient. Even the old communist-era buildings are fitted with AC. The reason is that it gets darn hot 🔥 in Bucharest during summer ☀️









