Paper

Thoughts on #bitcoin as digital gold. A 🧵

AI can execute with near-perfection up to 90%, but that last 10% — the conviction margin — is where it falters. Because that margin isn’t powered by data, logic, or probability. It’s powered by belief, obsession, unreasonable commitment — things AI doesn’t have, only simulates.

@SolarEtherPunk @tokenstate Just wondering where you got the 20 trillion stimulus number from?

@tokenstate I see another multi-year bull run with all the liquidity that needs to be added. I think they double to 20 trillion in stimulus in 2024. I don't think markets can crash with that amount of liquidity no matter how bad things get. Look at COVID.

Risk markets are in beginning stages of pricing in economic growth into 24’ while bears are still stuck in 22’. The key here is understanding markets are forward looking 18 months out. Max pain will continue to upside for inflation maxis looking in the rear view.

@Bosefina There are much worse places ambitions can start at.

My mom sent this pic to me recently. I had this Time cover photo hanging in my study all throughout high school. I can’t believe my ambitions at the time were to climb the corporate ladder 🤣🫠🫣

@SPYSTSignals Thanks! What’s the significance of both values relative to spot price of spx? What would be an easy way to understand liquidity value and relative value in relation to spx price?

@nobsideers Not a dumb q at all, liquidity value is a calc that is the fed balance sheet - reverse repo - daily treasury balance, a formula I got from someone else. My relative value calc looks at how bonds and USD have traded relative to S&P historically and calcs the value.

Green day as expected. Still on the 15 TD sell signal from 3/31. $SPY 5 Day Risk Model is neutral, but $VIX model is very bullish on vol here so I think upside risk is limited. SPY whales were back to adding to their put pile today after markets turned higher, QQQ action was neutral. Big day Mon w tomorrow's job # and next Wed w CPI.

@SPYSTSignals What deep dive did you read on whether the current Fed saving banks is QE or not QE?

A thread on how to create a simple quantitative financial model in Excel. Commonly, I approach investing using the scientific method; I observe something, develop a hypothesis, then I test it. So today, let’s look at the following question: does it pay to be a contrarian?🧵

How come no one is talking about how close we are to the debt ceiling? Am I missing something?

@punk4156 Aww, you are so cheeky smart 🤣🤣🤣

@rsg 80% of the time you are right that either of them is right, but it’s the 20% that makes life/investment very very interesting, give or take.

Shouldn’t have to be said: but don’t look to either perma-bulls or perma-bears for Bitcoin advice Saylor will always tell you to buy Roubini will always tell you to sell/short It’s not interesting or actionable commentary at this point

@dcinvestor Why would something that doesn’t have a supply cap have the same ability to hold value than something that does? Eth is immensely useful and has solid fundamentals, but it’s more like oil than gold, no?

what if i told you the only crypto-assets which i have a 95% confidence of holding significant value 10 years from now are: ETH, some select NFTs, BTC that's it after that, my confidence basically drops to <50%

@mfer7166 I didn’t follow, what happened to sartoshi?

mfers is probably the project in this space that fits the crypto narrative the best, with decentralization/CC0(libertarian spirit)/meme(counterculture)/and a strong community

@0x_b1 This is anecdotal, but whenever I hear main stream investment adviser talk about “stashing” something in the time of crisis, they put real real estate, gold, Bitcoin in the same category, though sometimes sarcastically

With so much concern about the macro economy, inflation etc, am surprised that the narrative of #BTC as inflationary hedge has broken down. Isn't this the perfect time for such a narrative to be gaining mindshare? What are we missing?

@0xinc This made my otherwise frantic day. Man, we got used to things quickly.

@100trillionUSD If you compare the data between inflation vs money printing ( debt increase YoY), it seems like this: 1. Money printing lagged inflation in the height of huge inflation in the 70s 2, there wasn’t much inflation after 2008 when the fed pumped huge amount of cash

Inflation is NOT transitory. Inflation is NOT caused by Putin. Prices will stay high and increase further. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Inflation is caused by central banks debasing currency (money printing). Inflation is why Satoshi created #bitcoin

@MoonOverlord And well deservedly so, given that the price was propped up by shaky defi projects.

ETH probably going to 3 digits

@mkl85 @PositiveCrypto the '>1 BTC category should already include the '>10 wallets

@PositiveCrypto Adresses holding >10 bitcoin dropped. They sold so they now fall in the '>1 BTC' category.

Interesting to see the increase in number of addresses holding >1BTC as price dropped this past month. Live chart: lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets…

@Mike_Melero @PositiveCrypto the heavy crash always follows, just the psychology of the market participants

This ranging for $BTC between daily resistance and 4hr support is getting comical.

@RyanSAdams Is it me or it’s just hard to have confidence in a product ship when the fundamental concept a product relies on is still shown as under development on its website. #eth merge

The death of Luna marks the end of the alt1 trade. Where will the rotators rotate? Ethereum & L2s. Why? - the merge - security - L2 tokens - ETH fundamentals - staking returns It’s either ETH or BTC and they’ll pick ETH because it has DeFi, NFTs, and killer economics.

Is it me or it’s just hard to have confidence in a product ship when the fundamental concept a product relies on is still shown as under development on its website. #eth merge

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