N. Dominic Capuano

@RyanDetrick 👀👀

I'll believe this rally when we are higher on a Thursday. If lower tomorrow, that'll be a record 10 in a row lower for Thursday.

@BullandBaird Linked but not entirely. If the US just walks away, which they may do the price of oil may stay elevated. The market responds to a reduced chance of a long-term conflict in that case. Market has been fine historically with $90-$100 per barrel oil.

@nondoc The two seem linked? Won’t oil front run the end of the war?

This was the tell a few days ago

@BullandBaird @choffstein You subscribe to this?

@choffstein Hall of fame tweet

Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's within the collar. Think the S&P is going to rip to new all-time highs? Sorry, there's a short call at 7155 capping your upside. The hedge fund already sold it. You think you found alpha? You found the ceiling of a put spread some quant structured three months ago in a conference room overlooking Park Avenue. You think the market is going to crash? Priced in. There's a long put at 6475 and market makers are going to buy futures all the way down to defend it. You think you're being clever buying puts at 6400? Congratulations, you just paid premium to bet against the gamma hedging flows of the largest bank in the United States. The JPM Collar is an all-powerful, all-encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of every retail trader's Robin Hood account before they even open it. Your portfolio was structured decades ago when JHEQX was valuing its expected quarterly roll based on implied volatility that would lead to your birth, what age you would discover options, how many times you would get wrecked on 0DTEs every week, how many times you would stare at SpotGamma charts pretending to understand them, etc. Anything you can think of has already been collared, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original trades. Your "conviction" is just an illusion, a product of the omniscient put spread. Free will is a myth. The collar sees all, knows all, and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the collar has already priced in the heat death of the universe and set strikes accordingly, long put at Entropy-5%, short put at Absolute Zero). Every quarter, like clockwork, the high priests at 383 Madison Avenue roll their positions. They sell calls. They buy puts. They sell lower puts. And the entire S&P 500 bends to their will. You think Powell controls the market? Powell wishes he had the gamma exposure of JHEQX. You want to go long? Cool. The ceiling is the short call. You want to go short? Also cool. The floor is the long put. You want to make money? That's the 980 point range they've already defined for you. Stay in your lane. The collar has spoken. So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether SPX is going to break out, or whether we're going to crash, or what strike to buy, just look up the JPM collar strikes for the quarter. That's your range. That's everyone's range. We're all just trading inside JPMorgan's hedged equity terrarium. Don't fight the collar. The collar is inevitable. The collar is eternal.

@Go_Crene @RyanDetrick So does this mean that hedge funds are selling and retail is not?

hedge fund selling at pandemic levels while the market is down 9% in two months not 34% in one month. the selling intensity is 2020. the price decline is not. either the hedge funds are overreacting or the price has not caught up to what the hedge funds already know. history says the price catches up.

Hedge fund selling inline with a 100-year pandemic and a 10% two-day crash after Liberation Day. This time the S&P 500 is down about 9% in two months.

@StephNoh Legend

I asked Joe Mazzulla what winning COTY would mean to him. "I think it's a stupid award. They shouldn't have it. It's more about the players. It's more about the work that the staff puts in. It's that simple, and I don't ever want to be asked or talk about it again."

@SleeperColts I think you have to temper your expectations. If any NFL general manager fought the way you did, they would have already traded a second day pic for him.

I’ll never give up on him. I just can’t do it. You can call me crazy if you like.

@elonmusk Tweet of the day

Probability of me getting a fair trial if this is how the judge dresses is 0.0%

@ColtsOn_SI @DwallsterDrake It’s all about price though, and I’m not sure that the Colts want to spend as much as Jennings wants to make

#Colts Can Replace Michael Pittman Jr. With #49ers Free Agent | via @DwallsterDrake READ: si.com/nfl/colts/onsi…

@SleeperOrioles I mean a healthy Westy has a very high ceiling

Top 10 Orioles I'm most excited to watch in 2026: 10. Jeremiah Jackson 9. Chris Bassitt 8. Jackson Holliday 7. Ryan Helsley 6. Taylor Ward 5. Kyle Bradish 4. Samuel Basallo 3. Pete Alonso 2. Trevor Rogers 1. Gunnar Henderson #Birdland

@BullandBaird You put a lot of trust in the New York Times. In general, I agree with your sentiment, but would look to hear directly from officials contradicting one another versus unnamed sources.

Why so many conflicting statements? I thought we were negotiating an end to this? Can the Government get on the same page?

@masnRoch When do you think we’ll hear about final cut downs?

Chris Bassitt also pitching today

@TreyYingst Who do you believe Trey?

Shortly after our report, Iranian state media denied that direct or indirect talks were taking place. U.S. officials say talks are happening, Iranian officials say they aren’t.

Talks are happening between the United States and Iran. U.S. strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure are now delayed five days, according to President Trump.

@DeItaone How can you even tweet this?

UNNAMED IRAN MILITARY SOURCE TELLS IRANIAN NEWS AGENCY IF U.S. FOLLOWS THROUGH ON ITS THREATS OF MILITARY AGGRESSION AGAINST KHARG ISLAND, IT WILL FACE IRAN'S 'SURPRISING' REACTION

@elonmusk This makes me want to go out and buy another Tesla

I would like to offer to pay the salaries of TSA personnel during this funding impasse that is negatively affecting the lives of so many Americans at airports throughout the country

@masnOrioles Guy looks like Sam Horn up there

different.

@TheCinesthetic It will shake you to your core

What is a movie that "broke" you so hard you can only watch it once, but you would still recommend it to everyone?

@KobeissiLetter Fair assessment

US oil and stock market futures open in 7 hours. Markets have yet to react to a ton of new events, including US strikes on Kharg Island and President Trump's global call to militarily open the Strait of Hormuz. However, the war timeline seems to be expanding, as the US is now saying the war will "likely" end within the "next few weeks." This is a vastly different outlook than where we were just six days ago, on March 9th, when President Trump said the war was “very complete.” And, even as the US Navy is preparing to "open" the Strait of Hormuz, shipping activity through the Strait remains near zero. The US has 7 hours to calm oil markets before futures open, or oil prices are heading back above $100/barrel. Prepare for more turbulence.

@Seinfeldism1 How can you forget this annoying whiny bastard?

You get to remove one character from #Seinfeld. Who is your pick?

@DeItaone Wonder if this is a sign of diplomacy

TRUMP: I HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO WIPE OUT OIL INFRASTRUCTURE ON ISLAND