Ξlliott W

🫣

@SBF_FTX @realDonaldTrump you not getting a pardon bro, give it a rest

There’s a small group of folks in our government who get things done in critical minerals (Ryan, George, Mike, and David). I’m thankful they are willing to dedicate their time to our country. Gallium arsenide and gallium nitride are vital to our safety as a nation. 🇺🇸

"Odysseus you're my best companion, so don't take this the wrong way. But in 20 years if you're still here, sieging cities, throwing javelins and shit, I'll fucking kill you. That's not a threat, that's a fact, I swear to Zeus I'll fucking sacrifice you."

Let’s get it!

Winston Churchill fought his depression with bricks. He'd lay them for hours at his country home in Kent. He joined the bricklayers' union. And in 1921 he wrote about why it worked. It took psychology another 75 years to catch up. He called his depression the "Black Dog." It followed him for decades. His method for fighting it back was as basic as it sounds: laying brick after brick, hour after hour. Churchill spelled out his theory in a long essay for The Strand Magazine. People who think for a living, he wrote, can't fix a tired brain just by resting it. They have to use a different part of themselves. The part that moves the eyes and the hands. Woodworking, chemistry, bookbinding, bricklaying, painting. Anything that drags the body into a problem the mind can't solve by itself. Modern psychology now calls this behavioral activation. It's one of the most-studied depression treatments out there. Depression sets a behavior trap. You feel bad, so you stop doing things, and doing less means less to feel good about. Feeling worse makes you do even less. The loop tightens until you can't breathe inside it. Behavioral activation breaks the loop from the action side. You schedule the activity first, even when every part of you doesn't want to. Doing it produces small rewards: a wall gets straighter, a painting fills in, a messy room gets clean. Those small rewards slowly rewire the brain. Action comes first, and the feeling follows. Researchers at the University of Washington put this to the test in 2006. They studied 241 adults with major depression and compared three treatments: behavioral activation, regular talk therapy, and antidepressants. For the people who were most severely depressed, behavioral activation matched the drugs. It beat the talk therapy. A 2014 review of more than 1,500 patients across 26 trials backed up the result. Physical work like bricklaying does something extra on top of this. It crowds out rumination, the looping bad thoughts that grind people down during the worst stretches of depression. Bricklaying needs both hands and gives feedback brick by brick: each one is straight or crooked. After an hour you can see exactly how much wall you built. No room left for the mental chewing. The line George Mack used in his post, "depression hates a moving target," is good poetry. The science behind it is sharper. Depression hates a brain that has somewhere else to be.

@MichaelAlleged x.com/Skippy_CT/stat…

Power laws show up in all kinds of systems with fat tails, like wealth distribution, city sizes, earthquake magnitudes, or stock market crashes. Same idea: a small number of events do most of the heavy lifting. Conclusion: You've gotta be in it to win it. @dotkrueger @gsantostasi

Anti corruption via diffusion. How democratic… and yet

Ironically, something like state reps choosing senators would probably have a meaningfully “localizing” effect on politics and day to day grievances of constituents. But that’s 17th amendment repeal and not as sure a thing!

Deeply correct. I like the idea of bumping to 680ish and letting it increase like it used to every ten years. 6000 representatives in one body may have some Dunbar number consequences that counteract the upside of representation.

@ArchiveExplorer First one is phenomenal, still recommended it more than a decade after college. Content is fire but maybe the best part is Bernie Madoff is considered a minor deity because it’s pre-scandal Grabbing the other two

An old jane street pm covered three book spines at poker night and made me guess "every quant on my desk has read these. you?" guessed zero. cost me $53k in the six months it took to fix that. he'd been on a market-making desk since before i could legally drink. three books face down on the felt, sharpie blacking out the spines. i guessed john hull, then taleb, then nassim's other one, then gave up. he flipped them one by one. trading and exchanges by larry harris: 5 of 8 strategies were textbook adverse-selection traps. harris names exactly which order types bleed you out to informed flow. - fortune's formula by poundstone: i was flat-sizing every trade at 2%. kelly said my edge trades deserved 11% and my noise trades deserved 0. i'd been doing the opposite for two years. - statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences by wilks: yes, the weather book. brier score. it's how meteorologists grade their own probabilistic forecasts. i'd never once measured my own calibration. i went home and brier-scored my last 400 trades. came back at 0.31. a coin flip scores 0.25. i was barely beating random and sizing it like i was jim simons. six months of rebuilding later the brier dropped to 0.08 and the pnl curve stopped looking like a heart monitor. the pm texted me once after that, asking which one hit hardest. wilks. always wilks. the books that put you on the desk are the ones a stranger covers up at a poker table to see if you flinch.

One of the most moving things I’ve ever read was the letter from a former Confederate to a dying former President Grant

think i’m gunna have some type 3 fun tonight

Letting the Japanese in on our meat habits was a mistake on par with unfettered AI. We’re all about to get ribeyemogged.

You need to be Doormaxxing

"Tool and Die Makers, a New Life Awaits you on the Off World Colonies"

burial

True freedom 😕 Is boomer freedom.

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